Written by Scott on Thursday, December 19th, 2024
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5 games yesterday and I had 1 tip.
Had the Stars to beat the Leafs. All signs pointed to a Stars win but the Leafs scored 3 unanswered in the 2nd and held on for the 5-3 win.
The Ducks beat the Jets 3-2, Utah beat the Canucks 3-2 in OT with Demko taking the loss. The Panthers pounded the Wild 6-1 and the Wings beat the Flyers 6-4.
After being a healthy scratch the Rangers traded 2019 2nd overall pick Kaapo Kakko to the Seattle Kraken in exchange for defenseman Will Borgen, a 2025 3rd and a 2025 6th.
9 games tonight.
Blues vs Lightning
The Lightning have won 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6. The Blues are 5-3-2 in last 10 and are in 6th in the Central.
These teams played on December 5th with the Blues winning 3-2.
As much as want to tip the Lightning, it would have to be in regulation and the Blues have had 3 of their last 7 games go to overtime. I’m a little reluctant to go with them here.
Devils vs Jackets
The Devils are on a 3 game win streak. They are playing well and are in 1st place in the Metro.
The Jackets are slumping again. They are 2-6-2 in last 10 and on a 5 game losing skid. They are in 8th in the Metro.
Really hard not to see the Devils coming through in this game. Even their road record of 12-4-0 is great and only helps their case here.
The Devils lead in the metrics. CF, CA, SF, SA, they are scoring more and allowing less and their XGF and XGA numbers are better than the Jackets. Even their high danger numbers are better.
Devils win in regulation
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at 888 Sports.
Rest of Canada: 1.80 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -145 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/12/19 8:26:54 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Kings vs Flyers
The Kings are in 2nd in the Pacific. They are 7-2-1 in last 10 but are playing about .500 hockey on the road going 8-7-3.
The Flyers played yesterday and lost to the Wings. They are 7-8-1 at home, 5-4-1 in last 19 and on a 2 game losing skid.
The Kings haven’t been very good on the road and the Flyers haven’t been very good at home. If I had to pick I would go with the Kings as they didnt play yesterday but I’m skipping this game.
Penguins vs Predators
Pens have managed to turn things around. They are 7-2-1 in last 10 and in 4th in the Metro.
The Predators have won 2 of 3. Before these 3 games they had lost 8 in a row.
The Predators are ranked last in GPG and the Penguins are ranked last in GAPG.
There is nothing I like here. Although the Pens are the underdogs here so it may be worth throwing a small bet on them as a win is worth about 2.25. Not a tip just there is value.
Kraken vs Blackhawks
I don’t see much I like from this game.
The Kraken are on a 2 game skid and haven’t shown me anything this season.
Hawks I watch all the time but that’s because they have been my team since 1990. I try to avoid tipping them as I’m obviously biased towards them but I also know that this isn’t the year that they turn things around.
Easy pass for me.
Bruins vs Oilers
Both teams are playing well.
The Bruins are 7-3 in last 10 and have won their last 2 games in a row. On the road they have gone 8-7-1.
The Oilers are 8-2 in last 10. At home they’ve gone 9-7-1.
So both teams are playing well of late but both also don’t have the best results based on where they are playing.
Senators vs Flames
Sens have been playing great recently. They have won 4 in a row and are 7-2-1 in last 10.
The Flames need to get themselves back on track. They are in 5th in the Pacific and are 3-4-3 in last 10. Although they haven’t been great in last 10 they have played well at home going 11-4-2 in Calgary.
I wanted to take the Sens here but the metrics don’t support that enough for me to make it a tip.
Canucks vs Knights
Canucks played last night and lost in overtime. Demko got the start there so they will be going with Lankinen who has had a good season up until this point.
The Knights are playing well going 7-2-1 in last 10 and they have been great in Vegas going 11-3-0 at home.
With their recent results and play at home the Knights have the edge. But with the Canucks turning back to Lankinen who kept them high in the standings in Demko’s absence, the team may respond to this.
Avalanche vs Sharks
I usually would say Avalanche to win and move on but I just can’t here.
They haven’t been playing as good as the can going 5-5 in last 10. But they have been okay on the road going 10-7-0.
The Sharks have lost their last 2 games and are floating right at the bottom of the standings. At home they have gone 6-8-1.
If taking the Avs we would have to take them -1.5 on the road for odds under 2.00. The risk isn’t worth the reward.
Tampa Bay in Regulation -145
Not many regulation wins for St. Louis. They do have some good road wins over top teams and having Robert Thomas back this month gives them some extra offense. Hoping I didn’t misjudge this one and Tampa can keep rolling.
Calgary +114
Flames play better at home. Worth a shot to me.
Other Thoughts
Thought about Philly +140. Could see them bouncing back with a better effort here but couldn’t trust them. Also I priced the Kings at -140 and that’s before factoring in the travel, the back to back and Kolosov in net for Philly. So there probably isn’t much value taking the Flyers at the current price.
I wanted to go against Seattle in this spot but when looking, Chicago has really struggled to create offense so I couldn’t get there.
Leaned on Boston and the OVER but didn’t trust either.
Didn’t think Pittsburgh was bad at +130.
Leaned Devils in regulation but was concerned about Columbus ability to score goals at home. Though seeing Merzlikins start for Blue Jackets makes Devils tempting.
Leaned Vegas to win, but thought there wasn’t much value in the current line.
Penguins, flames and canucks to win