Written by Graeme on Thursday, January 2nd, 2025
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No tips yesterday with just the one game. Kings thumped the Devils 3-0.
Tips are a tad late today as my morning was taken up watching the Mighty Glasgow Rangers absolutely destroy Celtic 3-0. Fantastic result and performance. Love to see it.
Let’s now turn our attention to Thursdays slate. We have a busy, busy evening with 12 games. Yay. Luckily I am on Cloud 9 after that result, so let’s get right to it!
Rangers vs Bruins
Unlike their Glasgow counterparts, the New York Rangers come in on a dismal run. Going up against a Bruins team who have been inconsistent.
The Rangers biggest concern at the moment – well they have a lot. But not being able to score is big. Their offense has kinda got going after the last couple games and I think I’ll pass on this one as Bruins I just don’t feel good about backing in this spot.
Panthers vs Hurricanes
Panthers ended a two game skid with the win over the Rangers. Their goals conceded the last few games is still a big concern. Not seeing anything in the data to back anything here. Canes should be scoring more, Panthers should be scoring less, and conceding less. I was hoping to get the over backed in this one but by the data, I am not seeing it.
Blue Jackets vs Red Wings
Can’t really separate these teams. Slight edge to the Wings negated by being on the road. Interestingly my rudimentary system (which I built back in 2008 and just use for the basics) is screaming at me that the Jackets are solid value today, but I ain’t seeing it.
Capitals vs Wild
Caps been a bit incosistent, but strong favourites against the Wild who come in off that win over the Preds. CF% and FF% are close with a slight edge to the Caps. Scoring more, better xG, conceding less although the xGA stats aren’t as great.
Unforutnately, Lindgrem is in net tonight for the Caps. Breaking down the goalie stats, that’s way too much of a factor and I can’t play them.
I would say there that logic might dictate an over 5.5 bet. However the Wilds current offensive metrics is too off-putting to go with that.
Islanders vs Leafs
Just played. Happy to pass.
Jets vs Ducks
Jets had a nice run ended in Colorado, now looking to bounce back. Would have to be -1.5 which they covered over the course of those 4 games.
Ducks however have come alive with two wins in a row.
Man – the Jets have a brutal CA/60 of 66.08 and that is resulting in the Ducks with a better CF%. Ducks with the better FF% too. Looking at the GF/xG stats…..I mean I can definitely see the Jets offense covering here.
If it comes down to an empty netter – Ducks have a pretty decent rate of scoring on an empty net, but concede about 45% of the time. Jets meanwhile have an excellent 13/19 record for scoring against an empty net.
It’s tight, but think there is just enough to go with Jets -1.5 if Hellebuyck in net. A note to self here is in regard to the Coris & Fenwick stats – which might be metrics I am ignoring at my peril. So we’ll see. A good learning experience at any rate.
Ducks beat the Jets a couple of weeks ago and hopefully they realize this isn’t an easy matchup. Meier even said their team thought it was going to be easy when the Devils got blasted.
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +102 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/02 1:56:37 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Stars vs Senators
By the Corsi & Fenwick Stars deserve to be such big favourites. Sens do have a few metrics like GA/60 that look good though. I do like the Stars here, but not enough to back them in regulation at the price. Sens with better SCGF% too.
Avalanche vs Sabres
Avs on a tear. 5 games in a row and now they take on Buffalo who just got beat by Dallas.
The odds ain’t great but the metrics make it look like in regulation is still just a play. And actually 888 Sports. has it at 1.80 which is more than enough. It was those 1.71 odds I was on the fence about.
Looks like Nichuskin is out but I still think
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.80 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -135 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/02 1:56:37 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Flames vs Utah
Hmmm….Flames are dogs but I actually think they might have a slight edge here. Oh wait Vladar in net that kinda conflicts with that. I’ll pass but Flames look like the best underdog bet of the day.
Reminds me that I had an idea once of a betting tips website where it was only underdogs I’d advise, over every sport. I ditched the idea simply because most people can’t understand variance, or that if you’re going to be betting underdogs, you’re going to get more losses than wins.
Tried it on a small scale and despite being actually profitable over about 30 picks, people couldn’t deal with the W-L record. Pity as it was quite fun every day waking up and looking around for underdogs that represent value. Whole different perspective.
Golden Knights vs Flyers
Not seeing enough to back the Knights here. Flyers GA/60 is brutal but their xGA/60 is solid. I can’t see that changing tonight but you just never know. Too iffy for me.
Kraken vs Canucks
Nothing here in what is a tight game. Odds look about right.
Sharks vs Lightning
Data doesn’t back Lightning -1.5 on the road.
S. Bennett to score for Panthers
A. Lee for Islanders
K. Marchenko for Blue Jackets
Wild -1
Senators Reg
Flyers Reg