Written by Graeme on Thursday, January 9th, 2025
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Hi everyone,
My apologies for no tips on the weekend. I very rarely get sick – like it’s a once a year deal at best – so when it does hit me, it hits me bloody hard. This one was COVID and I am still recovering from it. Brutal as any previous times I had it I just felt a little bit tired is all.
Right back into the thick of things with a busy Thursday.
Quick note: we are blacklisting MyBookie, a sportsbook we had sporadically linked to in the past if they had the best odds. They rarely did, and due to other issues we won’t be listing them anymore and are advising people against them.
Lightning vs Bruins
Tampa ended their skid with a very tight win over the Canes. They’ll feel confident of extending the wins to two with this home game against the Bruins. I’d have to take them in regulation and with their recent results, confidence isn’t there. Plus slightly worse CF & FF% aaand w worse xGF over last 10 makes it below “borderline” for me.
Senators vs Sabres
Not exactly two teams I’m really interested in backing at all ha. The data doesn’t really help too much either. Like Sens will likely win but the Sabres GF data makes it look like it could go all over the place, and the Sens might not even be able to compete with their offense.
Flyers vs Stars
Oooh this one is tight. I’m close to a play on Dallas due to the Flyers GA/60. But their defensive metrics aren’t too bad actually. and some of those goals conceded metrics are from a couple of weeks ago. Fedotov is projected tonight ut I mean he went up against the Leafs who are high flying right now. I’ll begrudingly pass ont his one.
Penguins vs Oilers
Oilers come in on a tear. Looking at the data they look backable. Just the third road trip game in a row is a bit of a concern.
Yeah I think you gotta go for the Oilers here. I don’t think Malkin is starting – and with the Knights and Kings both killing it, that should keep the pressure on the Oilers.
It’s not a pick I am super in love with but I do think it’s a play despite the Pens keeping the last three games close. Oilers goalscoring metrics and Pens metrics for conceding should see it come in.
Was going to go with Oilers in Regulation but the line has moved below the threshold since writing the above and going to check odds
Rangers vs Devils
Nothing for this one. Could be a messy affair.
Blue Jackets vs Kraken
Bit of a tight one – might actually be miniscule value on the Jackets here. Its just a case of if their offense can do the job. They could actually make the playoffs which is impressive after everyone wrote them off so hard at the beginning of the year.
I actually think there’s enough to go with Columbus here. Their offense is ticking, and the Seattle offense has struggled the last two games. These two did meet back in November and the Kraken thumped them 5-2. It’s a concern with Seattles offense but I like what the Jackets offense is doing and willing to roll the dice.
Jackets incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.11 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +110 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/09 11:48:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Hurricanes vs Leafs
Leafs are a great price here. Metrics don’t lean their way at all though.
Blues vs Ducks
Nothing here.
Wild vs Avs
Odds seem on the money here.
Knights vs Islanders
Most metrics point the Knights way. Not Corsi but that’s the only one. Knights at home are generally beasts I mean what negatives are there? Struggled agaisnt the East I guess .500. To their credit I’ve caught the last couple Islanders games and they have been looking solid actually. That win against the Bruins was huge and well deserved.
Definitely not writing them off, but Vegas should still get the job done. Vegas in Regulation.
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -110 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.909 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/09 11:48:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Welcome back Graeme. Thoughts on the lines
Rangers were at +150. Which I felt was high, but wasn’t eager to bet. It actually did get bet and has come down. Probably off the news that Shesterkin was starting in net for them.
I thought Ottawa was priced slightly low. But it’s somewhat understandable with their goaltending situation. Plus Ottawa has been outscored 11-4 over last three games. They’ve had some pretty low shot totals and xGF during those games as well.
Columbus opened -105 and I had them priced around -125 home favorites. They’ve since moved to plus money at home and are still available around the +110 range. Regardless of outcome, I think that’s solid value. Solid pick by Graeme IMO, who comes right back, and immediately gets the best of a number lol.
Thought Toronto had value +145 when they opened. Laughed because Graeme basically said the exact same thing. They’ve moved even further and can be available as high +155. Based on where the books list teams in the Futures Regular Season Points market, I had Carolina at -125. Carolina’s currently around -185 range. Both teams are “bet on”teams when they are at Home for most gamblers with Carolina being the Home team tonight. Which could be part of the pricing here. Toronto is on a 5 game winning streak currently. They will also be without McCabe who was injured in the Hathaway fight. Based on Carolina’s current price, bettors seem pretty confident in Carolina’s chances here. Graeme not seeing anything sticking out in the data, doesn’t give me much hope in a play on Toronto despite what seems to be good line value for them.
Anaheim +170 seems a tad high. Potential value there. But not crazy. Personally had them +160, which would make this more of a stay away rather than a play on Anaheim. Unless something popped up in the data. Most recently I had an UNDER play when St. Louis played Minnesota which lost. My thought was St. Louis offense can still disappear at times. They put up 4 on Wild, with a crazy 3 goals in the first 5 minutes of the second period. Wouldn’t shock me if the Blues finish with a low total here.
I made Wild -130 favorite. So seeing them +130 here is tempting. My prices have been significantly different then the books when it comes to Minnesota recently, however. This is due to the Kaprizov injury, that I don’t properly know how to factor. I like Colorado and am invested in them winning the Central Division at +850. Second game of a Road-Road back to back for them. I personally will consider making a play on Wild +130 here. Haven’t looked at any data and it would be just on the value I feel they could have at their current price.
Vegas -175. I priced Vegas at Home at -260, so I’m not really sure what I’m missing here. Whenever I’m this far off, I try to figure out why. And I can’t. Graeme going with the in regulation bet here. Probably to meet the threshold some of you unfairly place on him when trying to provide us with winners on a daily basis. The man is still recovering and is greeted immediately with a ten game slate dammit! Of course, I hope people can detect I’m saying this in jest. On a serious note I do think Vegas on the ML is still value. Only thing I can add is Islanders have had 11 of their 40 games go past regulation. Which at first sounded high to me. But I still think that’s actually not too crazy. Pittsburgh and Vancouver have the most with 14. And another thing that could aid the in regulation, is Islanders being in last place. They need two points not one to climb out. However, I don’t think coaches think like this. If they are tied at a certain point in this game, I’m concerned Islanders stop going for it to ensure they come away with a point on the road.
Just my opinions. Overall I like the Columbus play at plus money. Like the Vegas play as well. But I’ll be a little safer and take them on the money line at -175. And I’ll take a shot on Minnesota +130. But I wouldn’t advise anyone to back my Minnesota play. I’ll be a little ticked if that Anaheim +170 comes thru. Shit I might talk myself into that one. But I’ll still have to look at some data.
Columbus +110
Vegas -175
Minnesota +130
Anaheim +170
I do have a goal scorer prop I’ll post separate.
Thanks bud never had the chance to reply yesterday. Always appreciate the feedback and enjoyed reading this and what you thought based on my thoughts.
Even after the game I still don’t know what we were missing on that Vegas one. Did one of the players have a big birthday party and all the players were at the strip club until 4am and we didn’t know but the bookies did?
Devils Jack Hughes to score +155.
Jack Hughes to score is damn near an auto play for me anytime he faces Rangers, Islanders and his brother in Vancouver. I played this before the news Shesterkin was starting. So I will admit not as confident as if it was Quick or Domingue.
This has already been a positive bet for me regardless if it cashes tonight or not. Other concerns for anyone else. He’s already torched the Rangers twice this season. To the tune of 4 goals and 2 assists on 11 shots in two games. His career vs the Rangers is 15 goals on 91 shots over 22 games. The Rangers could look to take him out of the offense or just variance alone could make this quite difficult for him to continue this pace. There’s bound to be a dud in there eventually you would think. However he seems to like going against the Rangers, and I see him just always having success against them.
I’m also taking Bratt to record an assist at even money. This gives me a little leeway if Hughes does indeed get shutdown tonight.
And full transparency I did take Jack Hughes to score first at +1200.My thought process was…I…. Don’t do that one guys, come on….thats…..that one’s just fucking dumb. Fucks wrong with you.