Written by Graeme on Saturday, January 11th, 2025
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No tips yesterday.
The one I was most interested in was that Red Wings game, with how piss-poor their 5 vs 5 metrics were. As it is – that did end up being a factor to a degree. One of their goals was off a power play, and then they had the empty netter, although they went 1-4 on the power play.
Will be something to factor in though depending on their opponents.
Nothing I feel I missed out on looking back at the results and my analysis.
Let’s hop into the usual SUPER SATURDAY. More NHL games than you can shake a stick at! 15 freaking games. I kind of miss last weekend when I had COVID and had to pass.
Panthers vs Bruins:
Eh – I mean Panthers are solid favourites here but based on their results I’m not interested in backing them, even if the metrics were overwhelming for them. And it really isn’t. They are struggling to score. I thiiiink they’ll get the job done especially with the Bruins xGA/GA stats. But I don’t have overwhelming confidence.
I will say when I look at who they have played and THEIR defensive stats – I deffo lean a bit more towards Florida. Especially with Boqvist killing it, and Marchand cold.
Bleh – I’ll be honest. I’ve went out looking trying to convince myself NOT to bet the Panthers here. Based on their form, I really don’t want to. But it ticks enough boxes that I have to. In short – their offense performs against teams with similar defensive metrics to the Bruins.
Panthers in Regulation
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.91 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/11 11:34:00 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Penguins vs Senators:
Not seeing anything here to back. Pens are just a mess defensively at the moment. I don’t hate the over here. But the Sens offense is ice cold. Ottawa haven’t faced anyone with as bad defensive metrics as the Pens recently which is why I COULD see it going over – but I have no positive data to back that. I’d have to go back to mid-December when they lit up teams like Vancouver and the Kraken.
Gut says it goes over though. But I guess you also gotta factor in the Sens not the worst defensive metrics and the Pens are outscoring their xG. Too many variables but I think this is one where I’ll be looking back and thinking bleh – should have backed it.
Sabres vs Kraken:
What IS today? My god. Usually there are a few easy passes early on to get me rolling and getting the quantity down – but this is another probable.
Sabres a mixed bag lately but got that win over the Sens. Come in confident. Kraken struggling for the past month.
Kraken better Corsi & Fenwick though Sabres GF% much, much better. But xGF/60 is very low.
I’m not sold on Buffalo and the C&F data will allow me to pass. Another one where I am already kinda regretting it though.
Flyers vs Ducks:
This one thankfully is an easyish pass. Flyers in regulation would have to be the play and they have some concerning metrics like SCGA/60.
Blues vs Blue Jackets:
Too close to call plus they just played recently. Gut says this one goes over just based on recent results but the xG stats don’t back that up.
Jets vs Avalanche:
Another one where they played recently, plus Jets on a B2B. Maaaybe slightest of leans on the Avs.
Canadiens vs Stars:
Stars odds too low to back them on the road here.
Blackhawks vs Oilers:
Silly price here. No bet, but I think it’d be +EV to bet any team in the NHL at 4.00 odds to win.
Devils vs Lightning:
Two teams coming off bad runs. Lightning fairing slightly better. Nothing really jumping out in the data. I don’t think Devils should be as heavy favourites as they are but there’s nothing overwhelming making me want to jump on Tampa.
Leafs vs Canucks:
Both teams coming in off losses to the Canes. Leafs aren’t backable here with a worse xGA, and offensive overperforming a fair bit compared to their xGF.
Predators vs Capitals:
Caps on a B2B, Preds with a bit of rest. Preds have been my bogey team the last few seasons. I don’t think I have picked them yet this season. Will that change here?
Better CF% and FF%. Scoring is about the same, Preds conceding about 0.5 more. Preds though much better xGF and the Caps a poor xGA despite their GA/60.
Logan Thompson I think will be in net tonight but he had a NIGHTMARE when he came in against the Habs. Of course he will be looking for a redemption arc.
Caps just seem to have lost their mojo a bit. Still been able to sneak points in but it isn’t pretty.
Time for the annual “do me dirty” by the Preds. I’ve went back and forth on the Preds piss-poor OT stats and whether to back them in regulation to counter that – but meh. It’s bad enough I am backing them. Crappy odds too really.
Preds incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -138 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/11 11:34:00 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Utah vs Islanders:
Both teams are a big m eh for me. Metrics have a slight advantage towards the Islanders, and with Utah on the B2B I don’t hate it. But Islanders on the road just isn’t a play that exactly warms my heart.
Flames vs Kings:
Nothing here. Too many weird conflicts in the data like Flames with the much better xGF but then much worse GF/60 etc.
Sharks vs Wild:
Metrics just don’t support Wild -1.5.
Knights vs Rangers:
Knights are kinda on my shitlist after that Islanders performance. But goddamnit, by the data they should do the job here. Ugh. Games like this are critical for the Rangers if they want to make the playoffs, while the Knights are just going to stroll in I expect so we may have more potato games like that Islanders game from them.
Let’s give em one more chance.
Knights in Regulation
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -110 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/11 11:34:00 AM EST but are subject to change.)
