Written by Graeme on Thursday, January 16th, 2025
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Welcome to Thursday, January 16th and it’s a big slate today because of course it is.
Hoping for a good day today with the betting tips as it’s been a tough January for me. 1-6 I believe it is. Thankfully, Scott has been crushing it and is 7-2 for the month, plus I’m still up over 5 units personally for the season.
Alright big slate so let’s just get right into it shall we:
Lightning vs Ducks:
Tampa come in off that Big Boston loss as they’re still a team it’s nervy to back. They are 1.32 favourites against the Ducks – a team who just destroyed them 11 days ago.
My gut says Tampa bounce back strong and batter them but the metrics just don’t support Tampa -1.5 at all. I’ll probably personally bet it just based on my gut and general hockey watching/betting experience, but not one to advise.
I’ll be paying attention to that one though because it is one of those things where I do think – even if the data doesn’t back it, should I be advising it based on said experience? So we’ll see. The empty net stats lean it more of a play with Tampa the best record against the empty net (although Anaheim have a respectable 30% success rate with an empty net).
Panthers vs Red Wings:
Panthers are bleh right now. Wings just had a great point streak ended at home to the Sharks. At 2.85 odds – man, I don’t hate a play on the Wings. Just not happy with how they lost to the Sharks.
Panthers though their issue as mentioned before is goalscoring. Their Corsi and xGF stats are fantastic. Wings have a weak GA/60. It’s close but I just don’t see enough to back a Wings play plus just not feeling it myself.
Leafs vs Devils:
Leafs come in on a bad run and are underdogs here at home. Devils come in not playing too hot either.
I kind of want to back the Leafs here. But the data doesn’t really back that up. Worse Corsi & Fenwick. Scoring more over last 10 but conceding more, worse xG stats and hell losing in SCGF. Yeah this is one where even if the Leafs win the data is highly against it Not enough to take the Devils though.
Blue Jackets vs Sharks:
Jackets you know are always gonna be a bit of a risky play. Going up against the Sharks here it’s similar CF%, better FF%, better SF%. Scoring a ton more, conceding a little bit less. Creating more, and the xGA/60 stats for the Sharks are terrible.
I know what I’m getting with the Jackets. These metrics for some teams I’d be supremely confident of the win. With the Jackets? Less so. But the data backs it up enough.
Jackets in Regulation
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/16 10:20:47 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Senators vs Capitals:
Sens come in on a nice little run. Caps also playing well and are yet to lose in regulation this year.
Metrics for Caps are better but I feel a tad iffy about them at the moment. No bet. Not surprised odds are coinflip even though the data would say ithey should be favoured more heavily.
Islanders vs Flyers:
Islanders just lost to the aforementioned Sens to halt their brief winning run. Nothing standing out in the data for this one it looks very close. Probably close enough to where there is value on the Flyers actually – but not a team I really want to rush out and back.
Although looking at it a bit more let’s see – Islanders better CF% primarily due to their CF/60. FF% sorta the same but Flyers have a pretty sick FA/60. Better SF% for Philly. They’re scoring more, conceding less.
Better xGF/60 and xGA/60 and SCG stats. Huh.
Islanders are 7-10-2 at home Flyers are 9-9-5 on the road.
Well hot dog – I think this is actually a play. I did not expect that.
Flyers incl OT/SO if Ersson is in net
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +112 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/16 10:20:47 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blues vs Flames:
Just played. No interest.
Predators vs Blachawks:
I’m off the Preds, obviously after the Capitals blow out. With the metrics, they SHOULD cover the -1.5 I believe. But who the hell knows.
Stars vs Canadiens:
Happy to apss on this one with the recent encounter and the Habs finding ways to win. The metrics put the Stars as favourits but it’s not overwhelming. Mostly down to their defense and goaltending.
Jets vs Kraken:
I definitely lean the Jets here but not quite at their price. It’s close to a play and I don’t hate the -1.5 odds. Might be slight value there.
Utah vs Rangers:
Eh – I mean I think the Rangers will win but they have had a lot of close ones recently. Data isn’t really in their favour too much so yeah it’s a pass.
Avs vs Oilers:
Nothing for this one. Close one with data quite tight all over.
Canucks vs Kings:
Eh I mean Kings are better team but their offense is in a big slump at the moment.
Solid day of tips for you Graeme. Meant to try and write earlier but the day got away from me. Both you guys been killing it with the write ups. Good to see your January headed back in the right direction after solid day like today. Extra kudos as well since on a huge card like that, neither play was very chalk at all. And you were still able to identify and pass along two comfortable bets, that probably wouldn’t have been most people’s first choices. Always cool to check in daily and see where the data and instincts take you. And get to hear some of your insights and thought processes almost in real time. Keep it up. Always good to see when the hard work you put in pays off.
Thanks brother. I felt pretty pumped about that Flyers one as I was ready to pass on that pretty quickly but as I went to wrap up the brief write-up I started to look at the data more and was like “Shit we actually got a play here”.
And doubly pleased I listened to the data over my gut for Tampa 🙂
Yeah I just thought both picks that you landed on yesterday was impressive. It’s like there’s 13 games going on and hmmm i’ve landed on the blue jackets and flyers….ok. lol.
Wasn’t sure what you ended up doing with the Tampa play. Monitored the game cuz I was pulling for it to come thru in case you did. Didn’t get to watch any of it though. Then was like screw it, whether he did or didn’t ultimately play it, the two you officially landed on deserve credit on their own. And you did put the disclaimer next to the Tampa play, so solid day for you all around.
Ha yeah I just let the data dictate my plays really. I much prefer that as then at least I have something to back up the plays whether they win or lose.
I had a small play on Tampa but nothing big. One of those more casual “ah I’m watching the game so I’ll throw something on it” bets.