Written by Graeme on Saturday, January 18th, 2025
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No plays yesterday. Although if I had a time travel machine, one of the first thing I’d do is go back in time to yesterdays tips and tell you to bet on Nedelkovic to record both a goal and assist. How cool was that?
Both leans at least came in which were the Canes, and the Pens/Sabres over although I didn’t play either of those myself. Pens one just felt too tight wasn’t sure about their offense.
It’s Saturday which means a quadrillion games so let’s get to it.
Devils vs Flyers:
Devils come stumbling in after a lot of tight games. A far cry from their end of December form. Flyers on a decent little high variance run.
Data leans Flyers primarily due to their offensive output. Devils have a better xGF but of course, aren’t converting right now as their offense is struggling a wee bit.
That may continue here against Philly who don’t have too shabby defensive metrics. Especially with Ersson in.
I dunno. I am just not sold on Philly here like I was against the Islanders. The data is slightly better, and the odds are juicy. I think there’s value on them but if the Devils get their scoring boots going it would cause trouble. I’ll reluctantly pass. If you’re looking for a “dog of the day” they are certainly in contention.
Senators vs Bruins:
Man this is an interesting one. Sens goal production has been brutal lately but this is a great matchup for them with the Bruins brutal defensive metrics.
Caps have similar defensive metrics (except for GA/60) and Ottawa couldn’t score against them. It wasn’t like goaltending was the factor in the game agains the Sens really though.
Swayman in net for the Bruins and he is playing well right now. I think I will pass primarily due to that but I do like the Sens here.
Avs vs Stars:
Neither team really backable at the moment. I think glancing at the data the slightest of leans towards the Stars.
Panthers vs Ducks:
Play would have to be Panthers -2.5 and no surprise the data doesn’t support that. Heck I’ll be honest, I never play these but Ducks +1.5 might not be too bad.
Let’s see – Panthers struggling a fair bit at the moment. Ducks are a mixed bag. Blown out then they have a competitive game.
Looking back at that last Ducks game I didn’t mind how they played. Thought they did quite well.
Empty net could be a factor. With an empty net Ducks have allowed 6 outta 17. Not too bad. Panthers have scored 9 outta 15 against an empty net which is a nice number.
Panthers have Knight in – that’s an issue. He is coming off the back of a few good games. Conceded 2 or less in the last 5.
I think if it was Bob, I’d actually play Ducks +1.5 here with how things have gone with him recently. But it’s not and that’s the tipping point to put me off this one. Plus I guess the Panthers awesome advanced offensive metrics even if it isn’t resulting in goals.
Jets vs Flames:
Jets coming in on a nice run. Flames two losses in a row here. There isn’t enough in the data for me to back Jets in regulation. Worse CF% & FF% over last 10, xGF about the same. Think they’ll do it but might be a bit too tight.
Rangers vs Jackets:
Just seems a high variance game where anything could happen. Based on that and the odds, Jackets are probably a tidy little value play at a glance, but nothing worth backing officially.
Lightning vs Red Wings:
Another one where the dog definitely has some value to them. Wings are scoring like crazy at the moment and that could lift them to the win here.
Tampa offense definitely performing better though. Issue with the Wings offense is they are taking advantage of quite a few teams with a really bad GA/60. Not saying that’s completely the case – but definitely a factor.
Tampa don’t have horrible GA/60 or xGA/60 metrics. I dunno I am leaning towards the over here.
Alright let’s see if both teams can contribute. I hope this isn’t like the Panthers one where I spend a ton of time on it only to have no pick but we’ll see.
Vasy confirmed in net for Tampa. He’s been pretty solid this season. Have Wings put goals past a similar goalie? Hellebuyck obviously. And to a lesser degree – Lindgren.
Crap – I do kind of want to take the over here but I’m concerned the Wings can’t score against Vasy. Their offense is performing against teams where the goalie is having a bad time of it at the moment for the most part.
But Vasy HAS been letting him in his last 3 shifts. And with teams weaker than the Wings xGF (Anaheim are like the worst. Pens is slightly better).
Ahhhhh – screw it. I think there are enough factors to go with it and I’ve spent so much time on it ha. Not loving it to be honest but Lightnings vs Wings Over 6 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -115 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.85 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/18 12:09:04 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Capitals vs Penguins:
Man – I’m burnt out after all the research I put into that one ha.
Caps heavy favourites – don’t think they should be as big favourites at all looking at the metrics, but no confidence in Penguins to back.
Canadiens vs Leafs:
Metrics go the Habs way. Better Corsi, etter Fenwick. Better SF%. Scoring more, conceding MUCH less. Better xG.
Of course in these games anything can happen. And you know what? I’m completely fine with that. I’m getting the better team (based on current performances), at home, as an underdog. I’m happy to back it. If the Devils win was a momentum swing for the Toronto lads, so be it.
Canadiens win incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.20 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.23 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +123 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.23 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/18 12:09:04 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Islanders vs Sharks:
Eh – no confidence in the Islanders at the moment. The data might be there for the regulation play but the odds ain’t good.
Predators vs Wild:
No.
Blackhawks vs Knights:
Also no.
Utah vs Blues:
Blues coming in with a couple of wins. Utah are having a bad time of it at the moment. Blues slightly better Corsi & Fenwick & much better SF%. Scoring more, conceding less, worse xGF but better xGA/60.
They’ve been fine on the road this season while Utah are 6-11-4 at home so that’s not really a factor.
Games like this are weird because the data points to the Blues being a play, but my gut says its one of those random games Utah perform well in.
Its a tough one as I’m looking at everything, looking for that one thing that will sell me on this pick or put me off it completely.
I think I gotta go with Blues.
Blues incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.14 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +114 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.14 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/18 12:09:04 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Canucks vs Oilers:
Oilers likely streamroll them. It’s a weird one as I want to write “I’m a bit iffy on taking them in regulation” but I think that’s just because I already have three plays out there, and it’s tough to go with another.
Better Corsi primarily due to CF, smilar with Fenwick. Scoring more, conceding less. Creating a lot of chances etc etc.
Yeah they’re a play.
Oilers in Regulation
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/01/18 12:09:04 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Kraken vs Kings:
Not feeling anything for this game.
