Written by Graeme on Saturday, March 22nd, 2025
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Only the one game last night. It went over which I was leaning towards – but was just hesitant based on the Jackets offense the last couple of games.
Another massive slate today so lets hop right into it:
Rangers vs Canucks:
Eh. Metrics make it look like an “anything could happen” kinda game. Probably value on the Canucks due to that. But you’ve got to think the Rangers, who have lost 4 at home in regulation in a row, snap the hell out of it. Not enough things pointing to the Canucks for me.
Wild vs Sabres:
Minnesota a couple of wins in a row, unfortunately their offense is such a big issue with a 1.98 GF/60 and just 2.53 xGF/60 over last 10. But they HAVE looked alive last couple of games, agaisnt teams with a better xGA/60 and GA/60 than the Sabres.
Buffalo actually have a pretty solid CA/60 and average FA/60 but Kraken & Kings are around them as well and better.
Based on those matchups, I think it’s safe to go with Wild in Regulation and trust their offense here.
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: +105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/03/22 10:13:03 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Stars vs Flyers:
Yeeeeah with the way the Stars are right now, no interest in that -1.5 ha. The GF% does strongly suggest it but the xGF% does not. No play.
Blues vs Blackhawks:
Data definitely leans towards Blues -1.5 here. It’s very close. Truthfully, I think it’s 0EV as in the odds are right on the money – based on the metrics.
But looking at the situational data – Blues are now in the playoff race. I’ve said this many times before at this time of year – I’m comfortable backing teams in this spot. If they are a playoff team, they show they deserve it in games like this one. If the bet loses then no skin off my nose – it’s the team out there blowing their playoff chances.
Blues -1.5. I will note the empty net stats aren’t really in our favour too much here if that becomes a factor. Like I said probably 0EV.
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -110 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/03/22 10:13:03 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Islanders vs Flames:
Not seeing anything here. Odds seem pretty spot on.
Kings vs Hurricanes:
Canes machine continues to roll but the bookies have this one at a coinflip. I’m happy to pass. Definite strong lean on the Canes, but both teams have stingy goaltending which can be such a variance factor.
Capitals vs Panthers:
Another coinflip of a game. Washington are the team I definitely like on paper more here especially with the Panthers on this long ass road trip and looking depleted.
Unfortunately the metrics do not agree with those thoughts so no bet for me. Like the Panthers GA/60 and their xGF/60 is just so much better than Washingtons I can’t even begin to entertain a Capitals play.
Utah vs Lightning:
Not sure how this one will go results wise. The over 6 I thiiiink might hit but there’s a bit too many factors against it like Tampas defensive and goaltending metrics.
Canadiens vs Avs:
Not seeing anything here.
Devils vs Senators:
Devils feel a bit hard to back as they still battle with consistency, results all over the joint. Sens coming in off two hard losses. For the record, metrics are definitely in the Senators favour.
Over is a potential play at just 5.5 actually. In the advanced metrics, the one negative is the Devils GF/60 and xGF/60. But that might be made up for with the Sens defensive metrics.
Concern is the Devils that last outing against the Jackets only got 2 and they have brutal defensive metrics. Like I said there’s a consistency issue.
The over 5.5 is very close to a play. One I may end up regretting not backing. One of those where I have spent a lot of extra time looking at it trying to find that one aspect to put me over the edge. The Palat and Lazar injuries are concerning.
Predators vs Leafs:
Leafs you’d think would win but the metrics actualle lean the Preds way. A LOT actually. Leafs really only better in GF/60. I’d almost consider a sneaky play on the Preds here. But how can you back a team with 3 goals in 4 games? I will not be surprised if people are going to bed tonight stunned that the Preds beat the Leafs though.
Knights vs Red Wings:
Eh they just played and Wings cleaned their clocks. I expect a big bounceback from the Knights here after that loss but I generally don’t bet games when they have played that close.
OIlers vs Kraken:
Nothing here with the Oilers banged up to all hell.
Sharks vs Bruins:
Still avoiding the Bruins.
Hello! I’m pretty new to hockey but I try to watch as many games as possible. I just wanted to ask.. from what I’ve been seeing I thought the goalkeeping from Hurricanes have been pretty good. Is there a reason why it hasn’t been good? I’m just asking so I can learn more and more about the sport. Thanks! 🤠
Hi mate – sorry for any confusion. Stingy means the opposite, as in they aren’t giving up lots of goals. The concern there is goaltending is a high variance spot and can be a deal breaker. Moreso for the Canes in this one whose GA/60 (1.49) is soooo much lower than their xGA/60 of 2.79. For comparison, Kings are 2.17 and 2.49 which is close to the margin of error.
Basically means Canes are riding high on goaltending as opposed to their defense, and all it takes is that one bad outing from their goalie so it’s less reliable. Kings are actually a bit more reliable with their defensive metrics.
Ahh makes a lot of sense now. Thank you for explaining it!
And what’s nice is the exact result occurred which showed why I passed on it ha.