Written by Graeme on Friday, April 11th, 2025
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Alrighty – welcome to the last 3 days of me doing regular season “tips”.
We’re less than a week away from the end of the regular season.
As you can tell, it’s an extremely difficult period to do betting tips. There’s been a lot of crazy results and one-sided games lately, then you get those random games where with nothing really on the line, both teams fight like it’s game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals.
Just gotta slink our way to the end of the season and if we see a betting opportunity, take it.
Lightning vs Red Wings:
Tampa just a tad inconsistent at the moment for me – too much to back them at -1.5 at the odds. Metrics don’t suggest it anyway.
Over is tempting with xG stats of both teams but the issue is Wings low GF/60 and Tampa good GA/60. So you may be relying on Tampa to fire in the goals to get it over.
Senators vs Canadiens:
Sens three game win streak ended in the duology with the Blue Jackets. Habs on a killer run at the moment.
One of those games where it feels like a lot on the line as the Habs could overtake the Sens at the top of the wild card. However, it’s a big test for the Habs who in this current run, have beaten primarily the lower echelon of teams and also a weak ass Panthers team who were phoning it in.
Ullmark starting he has been running good. I like the Habs here – 2.20 is tricky. I feel like there’s definite value for sure. But when I look at the metrics, I’m not seeing it. if anything it’s dead on there probably. So yeah my gut says the Habs and sometimes I go with that – but I am not feeling it enough today.
Devils vs Penguins:
Roll a dice I’d say. Or flip a coin. By the metrics – eh a gamble on the Penguins isn’t the worst thing in the world at the odds. Better GF and xGF, worse defensive. Not one I can advise, and maybe the Devils pick themselves up against a beaten up Penguins team – but I still think there is value there.
Oilers vs Sharks:
Metrics are not there for the Oilers -2.5 or really anything here.
Flames vs Wild:
This one by the metrics is very close and books have it at a flip so yeah nothing.
So yeah to recap – Pens miiiight be worth the gamble. I kinda like Habs but just not enough to bet on.
Roll on the playoffs.
Im with you on the habs… Sens seem to be converting HDC’s really really well last 10 compared to Habs BUT then there is that run the habs are on and the odds! Ahhhh!!
I have to consider adrenaline in these matchups. Some teams, with the look-ahead, can use today to lock in some playoff certainty and stop worrying about it. Teams like Montreal, Edmonton, and Tampa (can still chase Toronto for the Division lead, so while at home, should go for it). Calgary vs Minnesota should be tightly fought and I’m willing to risk play money on a “Tie in Regulation” on that one. Not risking anything else, even O/U on it, or player props. In the last 5 games combined by Calgary and Minnesota, 6 of 10 games went to Overtime!
To WIN moneyline: Montreal, Edmonton, Tampa.
Montreal is basically set with a Wild Card slot now, but could use 1 or 2 more points to seal the deal. They have 4 games left to play including today, and have won the last three games against Ottawa, and on the puckline. Ottawa has two easy games next, so won’t be in a big panic to get points.
Oilers probably have this game circled as a desired win.