Written by Graeme & Scott on Friday, April 18th, 2025
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Welcome to the first post covering the NHL 2025 Playoffs.
As per usual, Scott and myself will give our own opinions rather than collaborate. How we calculate it stats wise is any where it is unanimous, we count – win or lose.
We cover the individual games from Game 2 onwards. For now, it is the series we cover.
Two games on Saturday so let’s get right into analyzing each series.
Jets vs Blues Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Jets won the season series 3-1.
The Blues played incredible towards the end of the season and if not for that strong run they wouldn’t have had any chance at getting into the playoffs.
They are led by Thomas, Kyrou, Holloway, Buchnevich, Schenn and Neighbours. For depth they have Bolduc, Subdivision and not much else. On defense they have Parayko, Fowler, Faulk and Broberg. In goal they have Binnington who can win games by himself and backing him up is Hofer.
The Jets won the Presidents Trophy and so you know they had a fantastic season.
They are a deep team and led by Connor, Scheifele, Ehlers, Vilardi, Pefetti and Namestnikov. For depth they have Niederreiter, Lowry, Iafallo, Tanev and Appleton. On defense they have Morrissey, Pionk, Samberg, DeMelo, Schenn, Miller and Stanley. In goal they have e one of the best in Hellebuyck who’s backed up by Comrie.
Always tough backing them Presidents Trophy winning team as they don’t have a great record of success. But I have to go with the Jets here as they are the much better team.
Jets win in 5 – will do Jets -1.5
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Bovada
USA: +105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at Intertops.
(Odds correct as of 2025/04/18 10:13:40 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: For each series, I will be focusing primarily on the advanced metrics as basis for my picks. A combination of head to head metrics, as well as pulling data from a few specific parts of the season that I feel closely relate to the playoffs. My write-ups will generally be shorter than Scotts due to this but he does a fantastic job of covering all the general information needed so I’d only be repeating myself.
By overall regular season metrics – CF% and FF% are close. Jets relied strongly on goaltending and that is going to have to carry them in the playoffs although their offense is generally more reliable. Things could be quite close, and Jets goaltending will be a big factor in if they win.
In the individual games, Blues actually rode the Jets quite hard. The only real anomaly was a dominant one by the Jets April 7th.
Looking at the individual matchups and seeing how the Blues were a formidable opponent for the Jets, and the overall metrics and how much Winnipeg relied on goaltending – I actually will not be surprised if Winnipeg go out.
I still think Jets win the series but I’m actually going to go with Blues +1.5 as my bet for the series.
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at : Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.83 Odds at : Sports Interaction
USA: -125 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.76 Odds at : Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/04/18 10:13:40 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Stars vs Avalanche Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Avs won the season series between these teams 2-1.
The Stars were a consistent team this season and finished in 2nd in the Central.
They are led by Rantanen, Duchene, Robertson, Johnston and Granlund. They are also a deep team having Hintz, Benn, Seguin, Marchment and Dadonov. On defense they are also deep with Harley, Heiskanen, Lindell, Ceci, Dumba and Lybushkin. In goal they have one of the best in Oettinger and he is backed up by DeSmith.
The Avalanche finished in 3rd in the Central but they are a great team. Led by MacKinnon, Necas, Nelson, Lehkonen, Coyle and Drouin. Depth comes from Nichushkin, Colton, Kiviranta and Drury. On defense they have arguably the best group in the league with Makar, Toews, Lindgren, Girard, Johnson and Malinski. Plus Landeskog is working on making his long awaited return to the NHL and if their captain does the team will have crazy momentum. In goal it’s Blackwood and Wedgewood.
MacKinnon is so good that he can win a series all by himself. They have so many weapons that it’s really tough to see these Stars beating them. It should be a good close series but I’m going with the Avs.
Avalanche win in 6 games
Graeme: Regular season metrics see massive CF% and FF% advantag for the Avs. Scored about the same, created about the same, Stars defense and goaltending let them down bigly. And this isn’t the offense you want to really go against when that’s your situation, is it?
We saw that play out in the regular season with the games between the two. Basically for the Stars to have any chance, their offense has to ridiculously overproduce.
I don’t see it. I’m with Scott – I actually think Avs can win in 5 but we’ll do the combined Avs -1.5 to play it safe.
Avs -1.5 for the series
Ontario: 2.25 Odds at : Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.25 Odds at : Sports Interaction
USA: +125 Odds at : TonyBet
Everyone Else: 2.25 Odds at : Sports Interaction
(Odds correct as of 2025/04/18 10:13:40 PM EST but are subject to change.)
The way the Stars ended their season as well… man… not good going into playoffs like that
Winnipeg – St.Louis
The hosts of this clash are the winners of the Western Conference in the NHL regular season. The visitors, on the other hand, are the eighth team in this conference.
Winnipeg confidently won their conference, as they managed to beat second-place Vegas by six points. They will enter this clash after winning four of their last five games.
The St. Louis Blues, on the other hand, are the revelation of the last games of the regular season. Their pursuit of the play-off phase has been incredible.
They will enter their first match in the play-offs after an excellent game with Utah and a 6-1 victory over that team.
Analyzing the direct matches of both teams in the regular season, the Jets had a clear advantage, winning three of the four games. On average, 5 goals were scored in the direct matches of these teams.
Over 5.5 goals including OT