Written by Graeme on Sunday, February 21st, 2016
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A 1-2 day yesterday.
It started off well with the Penguins/Lightning going over. Despite the high scoring game it was really a dull one with Lightning dominance right from the beginning and the Penguins never really threatened to get back into it.
I went for a risky Capitals -1.5 as opposed to in regulation, but that didn’t pay off as the Capitals won by 1 goal. The New Jersey Devils offense stepped up big time last night and that was a really good game to watch. The 1st period system correctly predicted the Devils would win the 1st period at 4.50 odds so that was a really nice pay day.
It also correctly predicted the Blues victory over the Coyotes in the 1st period for a 5.35 unit profit day for that system. I’ve got it on my to do list to tally up the stats for that and the overtime system and I’ll get to it today or tomorrow.
We ended the night with the Avalanche vs the Oilers and man – what a brutal team the Edmonton Oilers are. I mean you can usually count on them at home to throw in a solid performance – but they were absolutely dreadful last night. My concerns about the over were on the Avs and if THEY could get the goals – but instead it was the Oilers. They are an absolute disgrace at the moment and I just hope they get their shit together for the sake of McDavid.
Today we’ve got a more manageable schedule of 6 games. That’s pretty much what I find ideal for a night as it gives us a lot of betting options, however also allows us to focus strongly on every game.
Sportsbook of the day is Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv who are killing it today with their odds – I saw Ducks in regulation for just 1.70 at some books. We can never recommend Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv enough for non-Americans.
Sabres vs Penguins Betting Tips:
The Buffalo Sabres offense are really clicking the last few games. They scored 4 against the Jackets last night, 4 against the Avs a few days ago and 6 against the Habs. Although that last one is probably pretty low if you’re playing against Montreal.
They host the Pittsburgh Penguins who have their own issues of course. Not sure who is in goal for the nets – hopefully Zatkoff – but I’m taking the over on this one either way.
While the Pens offense is stuttering a bit they’re not as bad as the media make out at the moment. They just get a ton of extra focus because – well it’s the Penguins. They also never have problems scoring against Buffalo.
Over 5 Goals.
Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
USA: -120 Odds at GT Bets
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
Ducks vs Flames Betting Tips:
It would be a huge upset if the Flames pull off a win here and I just can’t see it happening. The Ducks, who have one of the oddest schedules in the NHL, have played just 2 games at home since January 21st. However they had a huge road trip that they passed with flying colours and they’ll come into this game confident.
The Flames have a couple of regulation wins since the all star break but 2 of those were against the Canucks and one against the Leafs so not exactly Stanley Cup opposition there. The Flames have the 2nd worst record on the road in the NHL.
Have to take Ducks in regulation here and just hope there’s no fatigue or mental aspects from that gruelling road trip that take their toll.
Canada: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
USA: -125 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
OHL Betting Tips:
I’m not happy with the quantity of picks for this system. It generally looks for value on the money line but in the OHL, there’s rarely value there as you can see by less than 30 picks throughout the entire season. I’m going to be doing a more risky handicap based system for the rest of the season so just a heads up on that. As a reminder this is an experimental betting system still.
Take the Ottawa 67s to beat the Oshawa Generals at -120 odds. Also the Kingston Frontenacs -1.5 at +120 odds vs the Niagara Ice Dogs. FInally Mississauga/Sudbury Over 7 at -130 odds.
Bet the OHL at:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
Experimental Betting Systems:
Overtime System: Sabres/Pens at 3.40 odds.
1st Period System: Canucks 3.00 odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
Americans: Bet 1st Periods at BetOnline. or Bovada.
Another winning night going 2-1. 3 nights in a row. Only lost was of course the dallas stars. I should have known Dallas isnt playing good and Boston plays good on the road. Anyways heres tonights pick
Penguins
Blackhawks
Anaheim
WHAT DO U GUYS THINK
I am going with the over 5 in regulation for the Pens game, and will decide the rest after I see how that goes. I like the over for most of the games, but I’m still thinking about a potential +8 over in regulation bet for today.
The last day I gambled a bit and went for all to be +8 over in regulation and that was a great idea. I am not planning on doing this tomorrow though.
I have the over 5 in reg. for the Wild-Hawks game also, hoping for an early 2-0 before further plays.
Hey guys, nice to join the discussion with some quality notes out there. Is there something bookers know that we don’t for BH-MIN on the Over 5.5? It is 2.45 on 888sports, as the +5 is at 2.07. Also, with so much offense on both sides the +1.5 goals (P1) is great at 2.16, I took it. Some more to discuss later on.
I really don’t know. I played +5 for 2.07. 🙂
Edit: AAAnd it’s 2-0 for Wild early. Looking good!
My final two for tonight:
Ducks in reg. for 1.90
Canes-Lightning +5 over in reg. for 2.03
I’d be wary of the Blackhawks. Wild finally got an outdoor game so they’re going to be super up for this one. With Yeo gone they’ve looked a lot better and they’ve got a great recent record against the Hawks(winning the last 4).
I don’t hate either side in that one – but I think it’s more of a coin toss game and would personally lean towards the underdog.
Graeme
Ducks have won 21 consecutive games at home against Flames.
All the money on Ducks.
Also i bet on Penguins and Wild.
Bold prediction: Kunitz, Zucker and Stewart to score in game.
I have a combo @10.99 with Penguins, Wild and Ducks. All in regulation.
Hope my ducks don’t make me a “surprise”!
Best odds on offer i can see for a bit of value is Calgary / Anaheim over 5.5 Goals. Already played out a 5-3 and 6-4 this season (as well as a 1-0). Calgary have had over 5.5 goals in 5 out of their last 6 games and Anaheim have had over 5.5 goals in 7 of their last 9 games.
My other tip is Detroit / New York Rangers to be under 5 goals. Detroit games are 5 out of last 10 under 5 goals and Rangers 4 of last 10 under 5 goals. Both teams missing some of their better attacking players. Would be better under 5.5 and if Howard starts for Detroit it could also change whether to go for this or not.
Also fancy a few goals in the Colorado v Canucks game. Landeskog at 10/3 to score anytime – treble money. Not scored in 8 games so has to be due a goal. Colorado don’t get many goals. Only 3 times in their last 20 games have they scored more than 3. Vancouver have conceded 5 goals in each of their last 4 games and i feel the Avalanche will take advantage of the Canucks low confidence right now. Avalanche also on a good run.
Nice and clean 7/9 yesterday, seems like this trend of huge night followed by couple terrible ones continue. I just hope i can do a better job tonight, would much rather like to continue with winning.
It’s too bad the Blues hammered the Coyotes in the 1st, i thought they could’ve come away with the upset but i guess the Blues really wanted to make that W-streak 5.
Bruins were as strong as i predicted, it’s a shame i didn’t go for the regulation win as they had over 3 odds at some point, but then again i probably wouldn’t have gone for other moneylines, Flyers and Sens especially, as they came away with the wins i wouldn’t have normally got.
Seems like ML’s are the way to go for the most part, and it does bring a new entertainment value in watching the games too. I kept jumping up from my couch watching that Sens game and was so happy when they finally sealed the deal.
Tonight i’ve been going back and forth on the Pens-Sabres game. If not for the early start & Pens playing early yesterday, i would favor the Sabres. But i think the schedule favors the Pens in this one and they could get the lead early.Eichel have really impressed me lately though and i think he’s taken a step forward, which is to be expected from a future franchise player in his 19’s.
Im going to try OT on that one, as i think it’s a very strong possibility, and i can’t trust myself going for either team winning since it’s kind of unknown how the schedule actually affects the game.
Im going to edit this post later to bring my thoughts on the evening games.
Colorado @ 2.6 seems high. Vanc is 2-7-1 last 10 with 4 straight loss. Colorado have 5-4-1 and 18-13-0 away stats.
Also over 5.5 in Anaheim Vs Calgary seems good at 2.1
greetings from San Diego, a little late to the game today due to internet problems and sleeping in. I was able to jump on the Pens-Sabres over and so far it seems like a good call with 2 scored in the first
BH-Wild over – Both teams have been scoring goals in bunches lately and will be jacked up for this game. The goalies are going to see a lot of rubber and 5+ is almost a certainly with two talented teams who have been on offensive rides.
BH ML – they will be pumped up for this game and they are a better team with better goaltending. The young guys are going to be the stars of this game.
BH-Wild over 1.5 for first – Both teams are going to be pressing and they both have potent offenses. After hectic 1st, things will settle down a bit.
Avs ML
Avs 1st per
Avs over 2.5
Avs score first
Nucks are tanking big time and Avs are fighting for a spot in the tourney. Patrick is going to have them at a high compete level and they are going to come out flying. Great value for a team that has WON 4 of last 5 against a team that has LOST 4 of its past 5
Ducks -1.5 – I’m not convinced they will score +3.5 but I think they can beat Calgary by 2 goals. small bet here.
ML single parlay – BH, Bolts, Avs
single parlay – Over BH-Wild, Over RW-NYR, ML Avs
good luck boys
My picks:
– Played also the over 5 (Sabres vs. Penguins)
– Wilds vs. Hawks | Both teams to score 2
– Ducks in regulation
On my mobile so have to make this quick.
I like:
Ducks ML and Over
Rangers ML and Under
Tampa ML and Over
Avs/Canucks –> Over
Needed Roy pulling his goalie with 10 min left and a last minute goal by the Avs but ….. 7 for 7 baby!
Ducks win
Hurricanes win
Avalanche win
Rangers-Red Wings OT
so far so good. Just need Avs to crush Nucks, DRW-NYR to be high scoring affair and Ducks to take care of Calgary.