Written by Graeme on Wednesday, February 24th, 2016
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Well although there were no actual tips yesterday, we had 2 betting tips from the 1st period system.
Both of those won, which brings the 1st period system to 17-14, +12.23 units.
An excellent start for that system but I do want to note that it’s a small sample size and 1st periods are really high variance. I expect to win less than 50% of the bets that we make on the 1st period system. An ideal win ratio would probably be around 43% and it’s currently at 54.8%.
I know how it can be when it comes to betting – we all want to believe there’s a magical system that can always produce winners. It can be easy to get carried away. I’d recommend using proper bankroll management if you’re going to be betting with it.
I personally have a separate bankroll purely for the 1st period system, and the unit amount I started with is 1/4 of what I bet on the actual tips. So practise caution.
Looking back at yesterdays results and the lack of tips – I probably gave a couple of teams too much credit. That would have been the Leafs and the Oilers. Statistically Predators and Senators looked like the right plays but the odd time my personal feelings come into play and affect the tips. When that happens I’m thankfully aware of it and then don’t tip at all.
Scott always believes in betting Over 4.5 so he’s a bit ticked off that we didn’t pull the trigger on that one for Rangers vs Devils. That was a heck of a game and the Devils offense is looking great lately.
Either way – it was nice to have a night off from betting and just being able to flick through the games enjoying them all.
It’s Wednesday, February 24th and Canada is hit by yet another winter storm. Freezing rain out there currently. All the school buses are canceled so I got to tell my 8yr old and 12yr old the good news – I wasn’t sending them to school.
It felt like the freaking twilight zone when both kids got upset – both wanting to go to school. My daughter wanted to go because she “only loves school and hates everything else” and my son wanted to go because “last time the buses were canceled they showed a movie”. Yeah because watching a VHS movie on a small TV in a cold classroom is better than relaxing on your couch watching on a 54″ TV.
Kids.
Enjoyed this story on the Habs Twitter Failure. Just amazing.
Capitals vs Canadiens Betting Tips:
We generally only play games when they’re 1.70 odds or above and I’m quite surprised to see Capitals in regulation being that. The odds are crazy though depending on the book. Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv currently have it at 1.71 while some books have it at 1.60!
I’m a bit wary of the Habs tonight. Washington have had a lot of tight games lately. A lot of teams are upping their games against them. But Montreal are just so so so so SO bad at the moment – especially on the road.
Just have to take Capitals in regulation. Capitals are at that stage for a team where you’re almost expecting them to get too cocky and lose. They are starting a lot of games and looking too confident and conceding goals but then that just spurs them on and it’s awesome to see the Capitals finally play like this.
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Pinnacle Sports.
USA: -140 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Pinnacle Sports.
Ducks vs Sabres Betting Tips:
The Ducks are the definition of a team on fire at the moment.
The Sabres are going to struggle big time without O’Reilly. The Ducks are going to be up for this game as a large part of their turnaround was when the Sabres beat them 3-0 back in December. While things were still a bit rocky you saw the team start to work together well and it’s all paying off at the moment.
Have to expect the Ducks to come out absolutely flying on this one.
Ducks -1.5
Canada: 2.33 Odds at Pinnacle Sports.
USA: +130 Odds at GT Bets
Everyone Else: 2.33 Odds at Pinnacle Sports.
Experimental Betting Systems:
No 1st period system tips today.
OHL Betting System: Take North Bay Battalion -1.5 today.
Bet the OHL at:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
Measured comments on the 1st Period System…….but still nice to show off your skills which we must thank you for!
Time for some bold picks.
Bruins, Avalanche, Canadiens and Ducks.
To score: Gallagher, Duchene and Stewart.
magus and lion picking the same team is, sort of, like the perfect storm.
Good job!
Thanks!
Excellent work! I hope you parlayed that.
Tonight picks,
Canadiens win %90
Avalanche win %100
Good luck everyone
Why Habs 100%….missing 2 of their top 4 defensemen (Petry & Beaulieu)
No, Avs won this season 😉
I know all about Habs and that is why they are one of my favorite tonight.
The way how you look at that is totally different than how I do ? good luck with your picks ?
Maybe I live too close from the Bell Center to trust them :0
Good for you THerrien decided to put Condon
Canadiens won. So what do you think about that ?
LOL
Hope to have you on board tonight as well. Make it rain!
I will wait now to see your picks
Well played
Very nice again. Shame I had the Avs in regulation. Oh well
Never play regulation. 3 options makes always big risk. Never do that
I will build a temple for you lion !!!
Wow amazing night man. Good job! Are you feeling any 100% ones for tonight?
Had the same picks for tonight.
Avs and Bruins: Maybe I will go for the Over here…
Boston ML
Ducks -1.5
Anyone have other thought on San Jose/ Avs? I have a feeling that Colorado will not be invested in this game mentally, with the Stadium Series game coming up against Detroit. Lots of distractions, San Jose a beast on the road. Oddsmakers have Sharks listed as a favorite for a reason and I think they’re the right side in this one. Maybe OT.
Wash/MTL OT…as Graeme says, Caps are just playing with teams right now, letting teams get out in front and then playing catch up a bit. Wouldn’t shock me if Montreal brings its “A” game here only to fall short in OT. One trend to note, and I know Price isn’t here but: The UNDER is 8-0-2, including the last five straight in Washington when playing the Habs.
Oki i have a question here to All you guys suggesting betting on Avalanche this night. If you can motivate your pick shortly? Beacuse i really can’t see how people seems to be so confident in picking Avalanche in tonights matchup against the Sharks. Avalanche dosen’t impress me at all at the time, especially not at Home ice. While Sharks do really play well as Visitors. Im leaning more to Pick the Sharks in this matchup.
Way to go Sebastien :
http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/matchups/g2_summary_3.html
Yeah we would lean towards the Sharks here. If their odds were better we would have picked them.
I feel SJ is the right side. My explanation is below
Yeah i am also completely with you on that one. I just can’t see any good reason why picking the Avalanche would feel like a really good pick. So it made me curious if these guys have some good reasons to share with us or if its just pure gut feeling 🙂
Sharks win looking back. they are 3-1 on this road trip and 5-2 in last 7.
Ilike the looks of San Jose v Colorado being over 5.5 goals at evens. I also feel there could be goals in Anaheim v Buffalo. Maybe Reinhardt 7/2 and Santorelli 5/1 to score as small stake bets for a bit of value
Yeah Sharks vs Avs have had some high scoring games in the past and could go over easily. Bit concerned about the Sabres offense though with O’Reilly out. Would rather wait and see how they play here.
What do you guys think about Ovechkin or Kuznetsov to score? Odds are @2 für Ovi and 3,25 für Kuz!
good night last night, though I ended up taking the BS over and that was a stinker and the NYR ran into a team that seems possessed. Devils are bringing compete level every night. Wish I could say about the Bruins.
Now it’s my turn to sit on the sidelines. I honestly don’t feel great about anything with value.
Caps will beat Habs but by how much?
Bruins and Pens are a coin flip with both ML and O/U.
Sharks should beat Avs but -140? meh.
Finally, Ducks should beat Sabres, but PL is always a risk, especially with a pesky team like the Sabres.
However, I love to have a little skin in the game, so I’m doing a low stakes 2-way round robin parlay with the following
Caps -1,5 (better team but by how much?)
Bruiins ML (based on their dominance of Pens this season)
SJS ML (they are on a roll big time)
Ducks -1.5 (better team but by how much?)
I’m also putting a small bet on Sharks to score first at -115..Pickard is going for Avs. Sharks 2.5+ is a lock but at -155? nope.
good luck guys
@betnhlca:disqus What do you guys think about Ovechkin or Kuznetsov to score? Odds are @2 für Ovi and 3,25 für Kuz!
Hi Johnny, I see you post a lot of «What do you think» stuff around. Everyone is looking for good value and nice circumstances. For this particular thoughts, you can look at a specific player’s game log and see his last 5 or 10 last games how much time per ice that player’s averaging. Add to it how much shots per game that player has and take a look on his goal-per-shot percentage. Based on this overview, you’ll see if you decide to pull the trigger or not.
Pat
I post “What do you think” AND picks, which I play. Just want to hear opinions for some bets 😉 And sports are’nt JUST statistics 🙂
I totally agrre with that fact, and I was simply trying to help you find some more information, good luck for tonight!
You’d expect a lot of goals from the Capitals in this game. I like the odds for Kuznetsov.
Thanks a lot! 🙂 Yeah, nice odds – Will try it with a small stake
I have my +8 over in regulation for the Sharks-Avs game for 9.50
Other than that, I’ll play Ducks-1.5 for 2.31, and the Caps in regulation for 1.80. We’ll see! Good luck to everyone!
Got a little combo tonight too: Sharks to score +2.5 goals + sabres to not score +2.5 (-2.5)
Not much value tonight so I’ll be doing a parlay as well as a straight bet.
Parlay- Caps and Ducks both in regulation.. I feel like both teams are playing very strong right now and should have enough momentum to get it done in regulation. On the plus there both at home.
Straight bet – Pens ML. A bit of a bias pick here but the pens cannot let this game go. They’ve been slacking against the Bruins lately and they should want to get revenge. Malkin is still out but I can see Sid racking up some points tonight.
Goodl luck!
WSH
ANAHEIM
SJ
BOS
Washington over 5.5
Pittsburgh OT
Sharks over 5.5
Ducks spread -1.5
Great tips again today guys. I am on my mobile again so gonna be quick.
Washington>Montreal – (In Regulation) – Games tend to be close so I’m afraid of the spread. I also like Caps to Win the 1st and Score in the first 9m30s (bodog)
Boston=Pittsburgh – Tough to call, so I’m going with OT. I do like the Under as well for some reason.
San Jose>Colorado – (In Regulation) – The Over looks very tempting but I’m worried about the Sharks slowing down on their last road game and grinding it out. Lots of sick guys for the Avs.
Anaheim>Buffalo (Spread -1.5) – Should be a no brainer. Might look at Ducks to score first and also Win the 1st to add some value to this game.
Good luck tonight!
Here is what i’m putting my money on tonight. I’m new on here and have been following the last couple of weeks.
Tonight’s Bets
M.L Parlay = WAS, SJO, ANA
Ducks -1.5
M.L PIT
SJO vs COL o5.5
I added caps -1.5 they will come out firing and Montreal just really sucks right now. I think caps win 5-2 final score.
Guys,
I just wanted to warn you for the ducks game. I wouldnt play for Ducks win.
Anyway Good luck again!
And why do you say that?
Because they need to win!
Explanation lion?
Did you take my picks? Canadiens %90 and Avalance %100?
I post them earlier today
So close both of them in regulation:( picked together. Ty for this
You’re welcome. So you won right?
Nope actually, I picked Avalance in reg. But still thanks for a good predictions 🙂 waiting more from you 😉
Play only for winner. 3 options makes higher risk.
Caps and Ducks seem like must bets.. I mean, they won’t be cakewalks by any means but when it comes down to it they absolutely should take it home. Probably going to wait for live-odds though, since it’s very possible both teams sleep on the start and give up a goal.
-1.5 for me though is way too risky. These type of games are often 1 goal games because the better team just doesn’t have the drive to put on a show.
Value pick is Colorado in regulation.
Anyone have a good bankroll management idea and could help me out? I have 20$, how much should I be betting on gamelines and when should I be raising bets?
Caps and Ducks seem like must bets.. I mean, they won’t be cakewalks by any means but when it comes down to it they absolutely should take it home. Probably going to wait for live-odds though, since it’s very possible both teams sleep on the start and give up a goal.
-1.5 for me though is way too risky. These type of games are often 1 goal games because the better team just doesn’t have the drive to put on a show.
Value pick is Colorado in regulation.
#onlyhereforthestoriescrewcheckingin
Habs up 1-0. good time to take Caps ML
Decent value Sharks to score first. Pickard can get lit up.
Wow … tonight just … I thought for sure top teams vs. bottom feeders!
Gotta give a shout out to Lion. Good job friend!
Thank you my friend
@BetNHL.ca what do you guys think of DAL
CHI
OVER 5 DAL NSH
OVER 5 MIN PHI