Written by Graeme on Wednesday, March 9th, 2016
Follow @BetNHL
It was a 2-1 night for a nice profit last night.
We had Rangers vs Sabres Over 5.5 goals. That one looked in the bank at the end of the 2nd but we needed a late goal from J.T. Miller to put that one over for a nice win at 2.20 odds.
We also had the Nashville Predators to win in regulation. That one was intense and I was scared to go to sleep. If you remember we had a similar bet last week with Preds against the Devils, and I went to sleep thinking it was over. Then woke up the next day and was stunned to see Devils had came back. Well I stayed up to watch the rest and thankfully Smith got the goal and that made it 4-2 and that was it. 2.17 odds for that one.
Our one loss came with the Penguins vs Islanders Over 5.5 goals. That one started off very strong. and with two goals just 13 minutes in it was looking good. Unfortunately only one more goal followed with a very quiet 2nd period with just one power play.
Today is March 9th, and just 6 games on the cards tonight. Some tricky ones but let’s see what we can rustle up….
Leafs vs Islanders Betting Tips:
The Halak injury is a concern for the Islanders for sure. And the Leafs ar concerning at this stage. They’ve lost their last 6 but they’ve had a lot of feisty performances like against the Sabres and the Lightning.
Halak out may be a blessing in disguise however. Islanders will tighten up, and won’t come here feeling overconfident. It’s going to be a good game, but I believe skill will win out and the Islanders will get the win.
Islanders in regulation.
Canada: 2.06 Odds at Pinnacle Sports.
USA: -110 Odds at GT Bets
Everyone Else: 2.06 Odds at Pinnacle Sports.
Blackhawks vs Blues Betting Tips:
You have the best power play team in the league against one of the best penalty kill teams in the league. Always very interesting to see.
I’ve really liked the Blackhawks since the trade deadline though. Their roster is deep, their offense is fresh and they have the chemistry going for them as well. Blackhawks have looked good against the Blues lately. Blues got back on the winning track against the Hurricanes and beat the Senators and Wild during their road trip – but I think the underdog Blackhawks are more than enough for the win here.
Blackhawks to win.
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Pinnacle Sports.
USA: -110 Odds at GT Bets
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Pinnacle Sports.
Predators vs Flames Betting Tips:
Going to bet on the Predators again. With the way they’re playing you’re always waiting for things to turn the other way but everything about them is excellent right now. Flames to their credit have been feisty the last couple of games, but the Predators should be able to get a solid win here with a great defensive performance.
Predators in regulation.
Canada: 2.10 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: +100 Odds at GT Bets
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at 888 Sports.
Experimental Betting Systems:
(Our 1st period systems are based on 3 levels of confidence that the system has for each pick. Ideally all 3 systems will be winners long runs, with the high confidence system doing the best but with the least amount of picks etc)
1st Period System High Confidence: Vancouver Canucks (2.85), Los Angeles Kings (2.95)
1st Period System Low Confidence: Colorado Avalanche (3.40)
Bet 1st Periods at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bet 1st Periods at BetOnline. or Bovada.
It was J.T Miller who scored the 4-2 empty netter 😛
Oops thanks. Fixed 🙂
Not sure about the Hawks pick, the teams feel so even, i think i’ll steer away from that game, might watch it and study the numbers and place a live bet on it instead.
March 9 main slip picks:
ISLANDERS WIN
BLACK HAWKS DRAW
PREDATORS WIN
CANUCKS WIN
DUCKS WIN
CAPITALS DRAW
combo bet.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
ISLANDERS OVER 4.5
BLACK HAWKS OVER 4.5
PREDATORS OVER 4.5
CAPITALS OVER 4.5
parlay medium stake
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1st PERIOD COMBO BET:
ISLANDERS
HAWKS DRAW
DUCKS DRAW
CAPS DRAW
PREDATORS DRAW
small stake
With Flames goaltending and Preds being so solid lately i think i’m leaning towards Preds -1.5 again today. When they win they seem to mostly do it by more then 1 goal and the same goes for Flames, they usually lose with more then 1 goal lately when they lose. The extra .75 Odds look juicy.
Artio isn’t bad, have you looked at his game logs?
Artio? You mean Ortio? He’s at .904 ES AdSv% which is just not good at all.
Under .900 in all situation in AdSv%
In March he was .924 which puts him in pretty good company. He had one bad game between Feb and Mar, otherwise he hasn’t let more than 2 by him. I don’t consider situations when he comes in after first goalie got yanked as equal to a start; the guy off the bench has no time to prepare mentally or physically. All players, and especially goalies, go through ups and downs during the season. Even the best goalies –Price, Lundqvist, Crawford–have slumps. Right now, Ortio is playing very well. By the way, a$$ wipe, a typo isn’t worth making a stupid comment about.
WTF? Why the mad comment at the end, i wasn’t trying to be a dick, come on.
Fair enough…comment above retracted.
Sorry if it came across douchey, was not my intention.
haha XD
Anybody knows the time Bodog reveal their odds for all bets? Only Moneyline is out at this time. Thank you!
Late in the afternoon usually.
Sometimes I notice that they will release the odds about 3-4 hours b4 the start of the game
ALL right a nice win yesterday again. I have been on a nice streak
NYI
CHI
NSH
ANH
ARI
WSH
just away teams? =)
is it even possible to miss 6 from 6. Now i know it is
Very good night again for me – I played your picks + the Rangers and Sharks in regulation 🙂 Also I had a combo with Rangers and Preds both to score +2.5 Goals.
Tonight I will go with the Isles and Nashville (both in regulation)
Also have combo again: Isles and Preds both to score +2.5 goals!
– Greetings from Germany –
nicely done!
Thank you! Do you got a nice profit too?
From the first time since i descover you i don’t like not even one of your tips.
For that reason i throw 2 units on one combo with all three.:)))
Who are you talking to?
With Bart Simpson.:))
The owners of the site, of course.
Hi, do you see low scoring result in Toronto? Under 5,5?
goal scorer tips?
Maybe Johnny Gaudreau? Usually looks good at home
tavares
Good evening guys,
Today I ll go only with one tips below
Blues vs Hawks OT %100
By the way I would like to say something about my predictions. %100 does not mean that the game will end like that but it means lion is thinking and feeling that the game will end like that. We saw it so clearly how I did wrong decisions with my %100s
I am such a player that who doesn’t like small odd’s and trying to find surprise games. If you want to pick my tips then please make yourself think so that we can be sad in the end as well. But if we win then that ll make us feel really very good.
Good luck everyone wherever you live or survive ?
Great!!! I hope you guys were interested and tried my tips.
not such a good night for me. The Bs-Bolts game was playoff intensity as I predicted, but instead of offensive flood it was a defensive duel. Conversely, I saw Sens-Canes game as low scoring and total was 7. Also saw Preds-Habs game as staying low and total there was also 7. With so much at stake, I figured the Red Wings would bring it against CBJ, but it was CBJ who led the entire way. Lastly, I had Stars winning in reg vs the hapless Habs and the Habs pulled one out. I did win a couple of other bets so the bleeding wasn’t as bad as it could have been.
On to tonight:
Preds-Flames – Preds are playing great, but those road trips can take their toll and the Flames are pesky. Again, coin flip and I’m staying away.
Isles reg – really good odds here and I’m going high units. TML are pretty much an AHL team at this point and the Isles are in playoff mode.
Ducks reg – Ducks had their historic run interrupted but with so much at stake I think they bounce back and finish off the Avs and score 2.5+. Ducks are riding the hottest goalie in the league and with Blues two nights away expect Gibson to start and the scoring to continue.
Caps-Kings O5 – this is going to be a great game and with two healthy teams who are playing for pride and playoff spots there will be at least 5. LAK hasn’t scored fewer than 2 goals in the past 8 and Caps haven’t scored fewer than 2 in past 22.
BH-Blues O5 – Not a lot of units here, but I think it’s a +EV
BH ML – not a lot of units because it’s two great teams playing for division lead, but I give BH the tip because they have improved their team a lot with add of Ladd and Weise. Also, Blues are missing Steen. Tarasenko can’t do it all himself. Or can he?
Just for fun I have small units on:
Isles -1.5
Ducks-Avs U5.5
Isles-Leafs U5.5
Caps-LA OT
good luck boys
Just added a single parlay:
BH ML
Yotes ML (Henrik Sendin is out and Markstrom is in net)
Caps-LAK O5
pays 6+:1
Markström and Miller have VERY similar numbers FYI. Miller better 5v5 but all situations they are super close with Markström a little bit ahead actually.
thanks, Markstrom has been letting up 2+ game and was lit up in February a couple of times. He hasn’t played a lot and that affects goalie’s timing. I think the Nucks are a weaker team with Henrik out and Markstrom in net. Yotes are playing without pressure and the young guys have the ability to score against a weaker defensive team. I like their chances vs a Henrik-less Nucks team.
Yeah, i’m not playing Nucks here either, not playing a winner at all. I do like the Over 5 though for this game. I just meant to point out that the goalie change doesn’t do much for Nucks 🙂
Any thoughts on Ducks -1.5? Out of Avs 5 losses in their last 10 games all of them have been with atleast 2 goals. Roy loves pulling the goalie and i see Ducks winning so the -1.5 should be the value bet there?
this could be a pretty tight game b/c Avs are still in the hunt. see Arto’s analysis above. However, I like Ducks reg.
I like the -1.5 much more then Ducks reg just because of the way Avs never lose with 1 goal, Roy pulls the goalie with like 3 min to go and either evens it out or the other team gets the open netters.
Just because of that i’ll never go reg against Avs, either ML or -1.5 😛
Nice value extracted bro
You really are a miserable bastard, aren’t you?
Any under/over tips anyone?
Leafs and islanders is under for me 5.5..
I’m going Over 5 in Nucks-Yotes
@betnhlca:disqus you mentionned Bet 1st Periods at Bet365 and 888 Sports. On bet365, I can’t find the winner of first period. You can bet on goals and stuff, but not the winner
-0.5
@Johnny Hockey
Oh im dumb, thanks 🙂
But you can’t bet for the underdogs?! For example the Avs…
is that a question or are u telling me?
Starting the night with Isles ML + Hawks-Blues Over 5 combo, will edit this later when i have the time to check up on the other games.
been waiting for your analysis before submitting my bet man! 😀 hehe
i was thinking of a combo Islanders win + Nashville win or Islanders win with Ducks ML.. how does it look?
I don’t know man, tough choices.
Calgary have nothing to lose and i see them working for the win tonight as they haven’t won at home in a while, and they got a confidence boost after beating the Pens a while back. Preds are flying high so overconfidence is a real possibility. I think they’re going with Hutton as well and it’s rare for the Flames to not have the worse goaltender. Even though the Preds win is still more likely just because these teams are in the same conference and see eachother 3 times a year so the Preds know how dangerous the Flames can be, odds are very low and makes me want to avoid this game.
Avs are actually pretty good team after they added Boedker, the Ducks don’t blow them out of the water. And they’ve won the past 2 meetings. Needless to say i think the Avs will want this game more as they’re in extremely tight race for the wild card spot with Minnesota. Varlamov is also capable of stealing games. Again, don’t like the odds for the Ducks at all even though their win is a bit more likely. I actually think there’s decent value in OT.
Thanks for following my picks ^^ Make the picks you like, but my advise is tonight is not the night to go all out on the favorites.
agree with you on Avs.. i see they are up and down and wins quite a lot of games with high margin, they have a form like WLWLW.. and in that case it can go either way.. so i think its a good idea to avoid that yes..
So maybe I will just go for a double combo Isles + Preds ML then, and hope for Preds to continue the good form at least for one more day! hehe 😀
Yeah i’d say the Preds are the better pick of the two.
Meh, don’t know what i was thinking with that Over pick, should’ve known Crawford will stand tall again.
Mentioned down below how i started to feel uncomfortable with the Isles pick but what was done was done, and the Leafs won.
Soo not a good start to the night.
I kind of like Avs ML and Kings ML tonight, going to try a combo on that.
Good Evening Guys !
Picks For Tonight :
Islanders ML / O5
Hawks ML
Good Luck !
Islanders (-1.5)
Chicago (Over 5.5)
Nashville (Regular Time)
Arizona (Over 5.5)
LA (Under 5.5)
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Side Note:
Colorado 4-3 OT win is quite interesting…..
Wow I don’t think I’ve ever been beat up that badly before … 0-5
Would have been a good night to play the OT’s on all games.
Very strange night indeed.
I played 6 games combo, 2 of them draws (OT) – the only ones I got right. No profit – medium loss I would say. Had I played all 6 games draw getting 5 right would have been really nice profit :D.
5 of the 6 matches ended in OT hehe bad day,. All wrong
I’ve been meaning to ask about stats on ‘home advantage’ as I fancied nothing last night as most of the better teams were away from home ice. Should have layed the shorter odd away teams!