Written by Graeme on Friday, March 18th, 2016
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It’s an interesting time being a hockey fan at the moment – especially when it comes to betting.
There’s a lot of underdog wins – and often when you don’t expect them. We’re seeing the better teams battle with consistency, and the worst performing teams randomly show up. You have the Leafs putting on a clinic in Detroit to win 1-0, blowing away the Lightning 4-1 then turning around and getting destroyed by the Panthers 4-1.
You’ve got the Ducks, coming off the back of an amazing streak now not leading the Pacific anymore. People are already looking at their offense and comparing them to the offense that began the season – which could do no right. Yet during that streak, they could do no wrong.
Hell look at the Blackhawks. They’re now on a 4 game losing streak as they go to Winnipeg tonight. Then you have the Flames coming to life these past few games, bringing back memories of last season.
It makes betting a hell of a lot more difficult, but a hell of a lot more satisfying when you do win. What’s interesting is when we lose. I’ve said it before but we go over every game whether we won, lost or didn’t bet to see if we missed anything. It’s actually something I’d recommend doing to help you become better at betting. Knowing the result, could you look back at everything prior to the game and accurately predict that Over 6 goals, or that big underdog win?
One of the biggest things you’ll learn from that is even knowing the result, you can’t legitimately predict that correct result for a fair amount of games. At best, you might be able to question the odds. But it’s always a fun excercise as it will make you think outside of your normal thinking line – you’ll start to factor in things that you normally don’t, and you’ll also see how big variance is when it comes to hockey.
Last night for example – Devils were on a run of 3 home defeats and bad ones at that. They then managed to put 7 goals on the boards to thrash the Wild 7-4 despite the Wild being pretty decent favourites. So what caused that? We didn’t cover the games yesterday due to time constraints, so I don’t have any pre-game data to look at. But from what I saw of the Devils game – they came to play. They said “We’re ending this home slump tonight”. Of course that doesn’t always work out. But as soon as they got that early goal 43 seconds in, it enforced their confidence. A goal 50 seconds later and they were up 2-0 and now they were on fire.
That early goal changed everything. If they hadn’t got that despite rushing the net early – it might have hurt their confidence. On the flip side – if the Wild had scored first, it’s very likely the heads would have went down on the Devils side of things and the Wild would have teed off on them. However that’s hockey – one single goal can change everything.
If you were on the Wild last night and are kicking yourself – don’t be. Right from the beginning of the game everything went right for the Devils and you were chasing an uphill battle. It’s not to say Wild were the correct pick or anything – but within 1 minute and 40 seconds the game became an insanely difficult one for the Wild due to that start the Devils had and that’s the way hockey works sometimes. You can watch all the hockey in the world and crunch all the numbers there is – but you just can’t predict things like that.
Right – onto Friday, March 18th 2016’s NHL Betting Tips. Let’s get to them:
Predators vs Capitals Betting Tips:
Capitals are struggling a little bit at the moment. You have to go back to March 2nd when they last won in regulation over the Leafs. Tight games against the Bruins, Ducks and Hurricanes as well as losses against the Sharks, Kings and Rangers.
They do still perform extremely well at home, but they’re going up against a Nashville Predators team who are rolling on all cylinders at the moment and who have won a lot of tough road games lately. Predators have the 7th best road record in the NHL and usually their road losses come all at once.
The standout for us here is the odds. The Predators just seem to be massive underdogs here when they really shouldn’t be. We’d expect to see them at around 2.20 odds. This is a massive game for them and we’re going to take them for the win here for a big upset.
Predators to win
Canada: 2.55 Odds at Sports Interaction.
USA: +145 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 2.50 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
Senators vs Sabres Betting Tips:
The Ottawa Senators still seem to have the playoffs in their plans. I personally can’t see it and their inconsistent form over the last month shows why they shouldn’t be considered a playoff team.
However they’re coming off 2 wins in a row over the Wild and the Leafs, and if they’re going to be a playoff team then they absolutely have to win games against Buffalo. The fact that they are the underdogs too in this one makes it all the sweeter.
Senators to win.
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Pinnacle Sports.
USA: +104 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Pinnacle Sports.
Blackhawks vs Jets Betting Tips:
The Blackhawks are hoping to stop a 4 game slump turning into a 5 game tonight. They’re going up against the Jets who have the 4th worst home record in the league. Blackhawks aren’t too hot on the road this season but a large part of that is they concede goals a fair amount.
We’re not fully convinced on the Blackhawks tonight. These last few games have exposed a lot of problems. However we believe that if they win, they do it in dominant enough fashion and so feel comfortable taking them in regulation based on that.
Blackhawks in Regulation.
Canada: 2.12 Odds at Pinnacle Sports.
USA: +105 Odds at GT Bets
Everyone Else: 2.12 Odds at Pinnacle Sports.
Experimental Betting Systems:
(Our 1st period systems are based on 3 levels of confidence that the system has for each pick. Ideally all 3 systems will be winners long runs, with the high confidence system doing the best but with the least amount of picks etc)
1st Period System Low Confidence: Winnipeg Jets (3.60, Vancouver Canucks (3.40), Calgary Flames (3.00)
Bet 1st Periods at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv or 888 Sports..
Americans: Bet 1st Periods at BetOnline. or Bovada.
Great commentary G. Leafs lost to the Panthers 4-1 last night and at a glance you think the Leafs played terribly, but not the case. Leafs played a solid game and the Panthers effort was average. So why the lopsided score? Panthers scored two ‘fluke’ goals off Leaf players and two empty-netters. As Graeme said, all the prep work in the world can’t predict every scenario or result. The players can control their mental attitude but they can’t control which way the puck bounces. The season is almost done & every team is in different place mentally. Teams in the playoffs aren’t ‘desperate’ to win every game. Teams out of the playoffs aren’t
under pressure and play well so we see more upsets. Teams chasing the ‘wildcard’ spots are highly motivated. If you’re hesitant to bet right now, then consider waiting for the playoffs for several reasons: You know who’s playing who; You know each series is a minimum 4 games. For example, if Chi plays Min 1st round. Ask yourself. Will the Wild sweep? No 100%. Will they win 3 in a row? No 99%. Will they win 2 in a row? Doubt it. Will they win 1? Good chance. If you think they win 1 or 2, will it be in Chicago or at home…and so on. Hang in there.:)
Cheers!
well said
Been a rough couple of days so i’m going with lower stakes for a bit, following your tips with slight adjustments, going with Sens in regulation and Hawks -1.5. Hawks is for the same reason as you stated, if they get out of their slump to beat Jets then i expect them to win comfortably, so might aswell get some better odds in there.
amongst other combo slips I got medium stake on Hawks in regulation and Flames over 4.5 in 2 game parlay. I have not been lucky with 2 game parlays lately always missing one of the games – hope tonight it will work out :).
well done mate
Thanks, could have been better. Bruins not able to put a puck into ducks net at all, disappointing. Expected much closer fight. Anyway, small profit is here so that is good :).
Caps
Hawks
Edm-Can O5
Flames OT
Ducks
Looks like a good 4-1 tonight:)
Good picks, better than mine 🙂
S&G – great write-up today, thanks for the insights.
Sens ML, Sens Reg, Sens 2.5+ – Sabres without Lehner and going with Johnson tonight. Ottawa riding 2-0 streak and Sabres abysmal lately. Sens been averaging 3 goals last 4. Going with Mo on Sens side tonight.
CBH reg – even with Darling in goal, the CBH are a better team and I like them to win in reg tonight. I see a lot of goals being scored by both teams so I’m also going with O1.5 1st and O5.5 for game.
Bruins ML – it’s going to be a tough game but I like the Bruins tonight because they are beast on the road and there are going to be a ton of Black & Gold shirts in the crowd supporting them. Anderson is good, but he’s not Gibson, so I give the goaltending edge to Tuukka.
Big Salami Over – some really competitive games tonight and some 2nd string goalies in the net which means lots of goals.
I like S&G’s Preds pick if, IF, Pekka was in net, but with Hutton in goal I don’t have confidence that they can pull off the upset, and I’m only getting +140 so I’ll take a pass. However, I do like the O5 and paired that with a Bruins-Ducks O5 for a single parlay. I’m getting 2:1 odds which isn’t great, but I like my chances of 4 of the league’s best teams scoring 5+ goals in each of these two games
good luck boys
Tonight picks,
Senators win %70
Blackhawks win %80
Colorado win %70
Canucks win %70
Ducks win %80
Good luck everyone!
Senators, Avalanche, Blackhawks and Ducks.
Just for fun I’m going to share a non-NHL tip with a NCAA BB tip. I have it on very good authority that N. Iowa is a big unit favorite over Texas. The Longhorns are actually not a very good team and they are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against a Big 12 opponent and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games. The Panthers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing a team with a win rate above .600 and they have been a covering machine going 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. UNI is better offensively and defensively and the Longhorns will struggle to break 60 points against them tonight. There are also some huge match-up problems that the longhorns will have to face against a very talented UNI team. Just for kicks, throw a small bet on UNI and thank me tomorrow 🙂 good luck boys
Thats a good pick in NCAA, the Michigan Wolverines are another pick Im going with and a parlay with the panthers.Wolverines have owned the Fighting Irish and this could be a great underdog pick as well!
Good luck
thanks
I know nothing about College Basketball and have only “known” you for a couple months …. So I’m putting the entire bankroll on UNI. Let’s see what happens!
Good luck buddy!
Thank YOU! Obviously didn’t bet the house but your tip paid. Also took Stephen F Austin on a tip and I’m already up on my NCAAB picks. Best I step out while I’m ahead because this isn’t my game! … Unless you’re feeling something else …..
Great call on UNI, glad I followed your tip. What an incredible ending to that game too, keep the march madness tips coming. Lot of hockey today too, it’s gonna be a great Saturday. Cheers
Long time listener, first time caller! Chicago SU, Ottawa +1.5 and NSH/WSH Over
TONIGHT I LIKE
OTT
NSH
CHI
COL
VAN
ANH
Nice article but Greame you didn’t watch the leafs last night … Florida won but didn’t convince a bit… But the difference maker was Loungo which was so so solid and kept the panthers very strong mentally.. They got 2 deflections from both goals and 2 empty netters… It was a really tight game . Luckily I cashed in with that tip and with the Kings that made a nice comeback. They were almost always on top but the counter attacks of the Rangers was pretty effective yesterday so all of that made it a great great game.
I’m having a good month but last month for eg even if it was good I had a really bad streak for a week and i was kicking myself a lot.. But it’s part of a betting journey… Impossible to just get profit every night .
I haven’t checked the games properly but almost for sure I’m jumping on the BH again… This is the best game possible to turn things around and I hope they do it tonight against a very weak Jets lately…
I also like the Sens to win but about Nashville… Even with those juicy odds I’m still not sure about that one… It has good value but.. I’m feeling that probably they won’t win tonight.
I did watch the game – but I could see how what I said would be confusing. I meant more in terms of the scoreline than anything else. In terms of the game itself it was a pretty even game and Jokinens goals were bizarro world. Good for the current Leafs team to learn though that no matter how well you can play sometimes – you’re going to lose in flukey fashion sometimes. Will be interesting to see how they play in their next game.
Agree with todays picks, was actually going to post the exact same.
Also would like to add flames/avs OT to the mix.
And bruins/ducks OT as well :p
Canucks have won like the past million meetings vs Oilers and i can see a case for them tonight as well, but probably going to leave that alone.
Go road teams go !
so far 3-1 at BUF-OTT and 3-1 at WSHN-NSHL. Is this really will be another losing night… sigh
Maybe, a lot depend on the OT’s from my personal point of view, as even one OT would make it an even night even if all other bets lose. Both to OT’s and it’s a pretty decent winning night.
But yeah it’s pretty clear at this point that people myself incluced are struggling with decision making. I always hate the last 20 games of the regular season and can’t wait for the real hockey and playoffs to start again.
Like a week or two ago i mentioned how i always have the worst nights in these games 65-82. Im only posting these as a practice for myself, to be honest i wouldn’t even take my own tips atm.
Canucks actually lost to the Oilers back in October BTW. But yeah we stayed away from that one as both teams are huge wildcards at the moment.
The Sens pick we made today reminded me of the Bruins pick we made back on March 1st vs the Flames. It was very similar – “Bruins are talking like they are going to be a playoff team – so they have to act like it”. As it is while we won that night as Bruins won 2-1 it was the complete opposite of a convincing performance from a playoff team.
Sens was similar. With their two wins in a row, there was a lot of talk about them sneaking into the playoffs. So okay you’re a playoff team? Then you can act like it by beating the lowly Buffalo Sabres in a convincing fashion. They’re not doing so – and that’s on them.
Really? i have no idea why sportsbettingstats have had games missing from their database this season, used to be such a good site.
Anyway, i like to study the human element and mental side of things a lot. And it’s funny how the same pattern repeats itself the past couple of weeks. Night in night out i find myself falling into the same trap.
What i mean by that is exactly that Sens game. Or the majority of upsets we’ve seen so much lately.
“Okay guys we’ve been playing well, there’s absolutely no reason to lose to this (insert non-playoff team here). We need these points so let’s play like it.”
Then what happens is guys are flopping all over ice, mental errors, can’t score, some players look like they’re skating in mud.. and at the same time the other team have no problem playing a fresh game.
If the Sens lost to, say, the Hawks today and their next game was against the Sabres they probably beat them pretty convincingly. You’re on your toes from the get-go and don’t worry about how your not supposed to lose these two points.
To me these patterns are always interesting, and i hate it when every night i go “ah man, i know this could be another one of these games, but how can they not get this done, screw it im backing them”.
At this time of the year teams are like small babies. They see something interesting, crawl their way to getting a hand on that something and are happy for a moment. Then they fall asleep until someone pokes at them and they start crying. To get them happy, they have to crawl back to the toy again.
Lol.
Going for U 5.5 FLA Vs COL @ 1.86
4/5 prev meets is under.
FLA six last home = 4 under 2 over
Col six last away = 4 under 2 over
2 in 3 is under so pretty good odds.
“The standout for us here is the odds. The Predators just seem to be
massive underdogs here when they really shouldn’t be. We’d expect to
see them at around 2.20 odds.”
It would be 2.20 odds if Nashville hadn’t played last night.
Back-to-backs alone aren’t even tough. I’ll always remember when Toews said players can handle that easily, it’s more of those back-to-back, 3rd game in 4 nights with travel in between that are tough. It’s going to take more than 2 games for these professional athletes of the best league in the world with the best trainers etc. to start feeling tired.
I’ve proven myself this theory as well, as one year i kept count of every single back-to-back vs the b-t-b 3rd in 4th type of games, and noticed how many times the supposedly tired team showed no significant fatigue at all. Sometimes even the latter games weren’t a problem. But then they would show fatigue in a random game after that tough stretch.
Fatigue (to the point that it would decisively affect the outcome of a game) is more rare in the NHL than people think. I know it’s easy to think that if you have games in few days you’re going to be tired. But let’s put it this way, if you’re in the gym doing your cardio and you’ve already done it for 30 minutes, only 10 left. Are you really going to stop now or get that final 10 min done and worry about fatigue later ?
If people bet on the Caps because Preds played last night and end up winning then that’s just luck. Caps are winning this game for other reasons.
Sorry about the rant lol, im not really arguing with you as it is 100% true, but decided it could be interesting to bring up this discussion.
A few summers ago I spent over a week focused purely on back to back stats in the NHL. Yes – I have exciting summers.
The main thing I took away from it is that it is very team dependent. Some teams on the second leg of a back to back seriously struggle, while others ride the wave. Some then bat around average.
However there are a TON of mitigating factors that come into play. I mean here are just a few of them:
– The result of the first game of a B2B.
– How the team played on that first game.
– Whether a goalie is playing both games or not.
– Team they played in first game.
– Team they play in second game.
– Home/Road games plus travel distance.
– Playing time of certain lineups in the first game.
– Team chemistry at that time.
The end result is when it comes to back to back games, I look for a trend during the current season and see if there is any cause for concern. Here’s the 2nd leg of B2Bs for the Preds going from most recent backwards:
– Went to OT with Flames and lost.
– Beat Toronto 3-2.
– Beat Calgary 2-1.
– Lost to Arizona 4-0.
– Went to OT with Blues and lost 4-3.
– Lost 4-1 to Blackhawks.
– Lost 4-1 to Buffalo.
– Lost 4-0 to Minnesota.
– Lost 4-2 to Anaheim.
The early days of the season, the Predators had some poor results on that second leg. However it seemed to be less of a factor as the season wore on. The Coyotes loss was with Hutton in net. They had some hard fought games which they win, or battled all the way to OT.
Basically I had no major concern with the Preds on a B2B here at those odds. And even though we didn’t mention back to back in the write up above – we are always aware of it and it’s one of many factors we look at and consider based on a teams history that season as I mentioned above.
Good points.
But you have to look past the results as well. For all i know the Preds could’ve lost all of those games even with a days rest. There’s so many more things that can lead to a loss than fatigue, and people are often quick to blame a loss on fatigue whenever it’s a b2b situation because it’s easy.
It’s funny how people sometimes think teams just flat out fly out there for the full 60 minutes when they’ve had rest. Full rested team can be outskated by a team that’s played 4 games in 6 nights. So like you said it’s very important to look for the type of games rather than how many.
But even as you say, there are many contributing factors. Does a team win or lose based solely on whether or not they played the night before? Obviously not. Does it play a factor? Of course!
You can’t deny flying across 4 time zones would be tough on someone’s body. Sometimes it takes more than a day to adjust. And now add in 2 games back to back. It matters!
Often a team plays their backup goalie in the 2nd game. That matters.
I agree 100% the “tired” team isn’t always going to lose, but I DO believe that the “rested” team does gain an advantage.
It only plays a factor if the team is clearly tired, in other words step behind when they shouldn’t be. That’s my opinion.
These guys are well prepared for b2b’s and know what’s coming. And i trust it when the players themselves say b2b’s aren’t generally that tough.
But yeah it obviously can matter, it’s just very situational.
It’s probably better to leave games with possible fatigue factor all together, i mean not only is there variance by default do i really want to add more to the mix ? Stuff i have no control over. Something to think about for sure.
I like 2 of your picks S&G, but I disagree about the Capitals. Perhaps fatigue doesn’t play too much of a factor, but in this instance, I think it will. The Caps are solid at home and there is always a risk of them dropping off in play now that they’re locked into the playoffs, but I think they will take it.
I’m not sure about the Avs and Flames, but the OVER is highly likely.
Bruins and Ducks is also a tough one to call, but I would lean more to the Ducks at home. Its never easy travelling across the country and the Ducks want to put some distance behind them in the Pacific and it starts now!
Good luck!
Boom!