Written by Graeme on Saturday, March 19th, 2016
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Quick note that with the regular season wrapping up this weekend, there’ll be no more OHL Tips for the season as I don’t trust the model when it comes to the playoffs. We finished the season at an EXCELLENT 28-15 for +17.57 units profit.
The OHL Tips will be returning next season, and I will be using that base model during the Summer to see how it will work on other leagues such as the AHL and other leagues and hopefully expand our tips next season into them. I MIGHT do series previews/betting tips for the OHL playoffs but not 100% sure yet.
As for NHL – it was a 1-2 night last night.
We put the ball in the Sens court so to speak – after their two wins there was still talks of playoff hopes in Ottawa. If you’re going to make the playoffs then you’re going to come out and wipe the floor with a Buffalo Sabres team. Ottawa didn’t do that. Worse – they completely lost their discipline in the game, and it was a disappointing performance all round.
We had the Predators to beat the Capitals based on the odds. Forsberg scored early in the 2nd to put the Predators up 1-0. The last few times the Capitals have conceded they haven’t really rose to the challenge like earlier in the season. Unfortunately that woke them up last night. That Kuznetsov pass though – holy shit. If you didn’t see it, here’s a link. Just ridiculous.
We won with the Blackhawks in regulation over the Jets. Blackhawks stopped their 4 game slump in spectacular fashion with Darling picking up his first shutout of the season I believe, as the Blackhawks got back on the winning track.
It’s Saturday which means a full plate of NHL games. Let’s get to it:
Flyers vs Penguins Betting Tips:
Always a good rivalry between these two. The way both of these teams are playing at the moment it has all the makings for a GREAT game. The Penguins offense is clicking, as is the Flyers offense who have been on fire the last few weeks.
This is a big game for both these teams and we like it to be a good offensive battle with both teams throwing caution to the wind and getting the goals. These games are always good for goals – Fleurys stats say it all. 1.75 GAA in his last 8, but against Flyers in the last 6 4.20 GAA.
Over 5 Goals.
Canada: 1.70 Odds at Sports Interaction.
USA: -145 Odds at GT Bets
Everyone Else: 1.68 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
Wild vs Hurricanes Betting Tips:
The Wild are coming off that huge 7-4 loss to the Devils. They’re going home where they’ve dropped their last two against the Oilers and the Blues. We like the Wild to come out for this one aiming for a solid and dominant win.
The Wild got caught off guard against the Devils. The only way I could see this going the Hurricanes way is if they also get off to an early start. They’re a decent 1st period team but the WIld are no pushover themselves and have lost I believe just 6 1st periods all season.
Wild have a good record against the Canes and we expect them to make it 6 in a row against Carolina tonight.
Wild in regulation.
Canada: 2.08 Odds at Pinnacle Sports.
USA: -105 Odds at GT Bets
Everyone Else: 2.08 Odds at Pinnacle Sports.
Senators vs Canadiens Betting Tips:
In this type of game both teams are always up for it. Habs road form hasn’t been too bad. More importantly the Senators heads will be down after their loss last night. Despite their 2 home wins prior to that they haven’t been convincing at home.
Canadiens to win.
Canada: 2.30 Odds at Sports Interaction.
USA: +130 Odds at GT Bets
Everyone Else: 2.30 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
Experimental Betting Systems:
(Our 1st period systems are based on 3 levels of confidence that the system has for each pick. Ideally all 3 systems will be winners long runs, with the high confidence system doing the best but with the least amount of picks etc)
1st Period System Medium Confidence: Ottawa Senators (2.75)
1st Period System Low Confidence: Toronto Maple Leafs (3.00), Tampa Bay Lightning )2.60) , Carolina Hurricanes (3.80), New York Rangers (3.35), Dallas Stars (2.70)
Bet 1st Periods at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv or 888 Sports..
Americans: Bet 1st Periods at BetOnline. or Bovada.
FINISHED 3-3 YESTERDAY
TODAY I LIKE
PIT
MIN
NYR
BUF
OTT
FLA
CLB
DAL
STL
TB
LA
IM PICKING EVERYGAME FROM NOW ON
You should only pick the bets based on if you find value. That is what betting is all about.
IK but I put a little more on the bets I feel more comfortable with
Hello guys, any thoughts on th NYR/San Jose game, I think NYR win.
Also philly/Pitts line moved to 5.5 Goals over. How do you guys feel with that play. I was for the over all along. But line moved so not sure.
I like the NYR as well
I took a three game parlay on NYR, Philly/Pitts over and Minny.
I was gonna say stay away from the over and only take Penguins
I got SJ OT but my thoughts are NYR could win. Hoping for OT in regulation and NYR win ML…
Sharks all the way. Rangers beat Ducks and lose in OT with Kings. They already have a very good result in California. Time to lose in regulation.
Good call
I have absolutely no confidence in NYR right now.
Flyers ML all the way.
Voracek is back !
Over 3.5 live bet at this point seems like a brilliant idea. Surprisingly good odds.
Yep – that first period was intense with some really good chances. Hopefully the goals start pouring in soon.
The ol’ Flyers Pens bang bang play, 0-0 turns into 1-1 in 2 mins.
“We scored a goal guess we can just stop playing now”. Always funny to see complacency immediately set in like that.
Yeah, especially when you consider how important this game is. Pens are the team they’re chasing in the standings, but “im sure this 1-0 is enough”. Fml.
Thanks for tip. I bet a small amount @1.9.
Yap I went on that also but I didn’t see it here.. Since I was late for the over 5, but the wild did piss me off hope they lose in OT lol
Wild, Sharks, Red Wings, Habs and Tampa Bay.
tonights picks
3 game parlay small stake
MIN
TB
STL
in regulation
5 game combo bet
PHIL OT
NJ
TOR
SJ OT
FLO OT
Holy crap what a mess that Letang empty netter was.
any thoughts on Dal? Betnhl ARto Rein Lion…
Value on the Islanders with Seguin out.
im looking at fla 1st period vs det 1st period. it seems like fla got the edge. whats ur input? thank you.
Feel free to ask us anything – always happy to help. Yep Florida has the edge and were very close to a 1st period pick for us.
sorry for picking your brain. just want to make sure before i do anything stupid lol
I would say Islanders win
Well i think the Stars are good enough to beat the Isles tonight, but that’s probably a good thing if you went for the Isles – considering how my picks have gone the past 3 days.
Haven’t looked at the odds but I like the OVER much more than taking a winner
I don’t get any love? take the over in this game
Gut says Rangers beat the Sharks, can still get 2.10 ML odds. Haven’t listened to my gut in a while.
Like it, going with it.
Tonight picks,
Devils win %65
Wings win %55
Leafs win %90
Islanders win %60
Blues win %70
Bruins win %100
Good luck everyone!
I like the odd of the Canadiens but it’s going to be tuff.. Who else feels confidant on this one? Still so many injuries for MTL
I’m leaning towards the Sens FWIW
Well I took a while and I’m going with the Canadiens I’m really also relying on a great game by scrivens… I really don’t like condon .. But I guess the lost last night is a blow for the sens… Don’t know if they are going to play or throw the towel tonight.. I think it’s value on Montreal let’s see ?
Ridiculous Montreal is the worse 4 SH … Biggest joke ever almost 5 lol
Yeah with our Wild pick despite them not wrapping it up in regulation, we still felt good about the pick in retrospect. With the Habs, just can’t help but laugh at the absurdity of it.
Yes but I’m really upset lol , the wild was just bad luck … Tre Canadiens even if there was some also still they got what they deserved , I’m just kicking myself for not putting on the leafs, but it happens , didn’t lose that much but just got bitter with it
But cheers and thanks for giving ideas and picks.. I did trust your ideas and I think you were just unlucky not to pick up a win on any of them
Who else is feeling what I’m feeling Boston Bruins M.L tonight at +155?
I’m a Bs fan and I ain’t feeling it.
March Madness tip: Take Kansas over U Conn.
SDB what did you get for a line? When I first read your tip I read it as the line being 20 points which was too risky for my blood. When I looked it was -12-1/2 so I passed. Hope you got a smaller spread when you placed!
-8 and that was pretty late. Covered easily. I’m 3-0 so far, bound to come down to earth soon.
May i ask why you sometimes say relegation and sometimes overtime ?
Exactly how it sounds. They are betting that a team will win in regulation and not need overtime. If the game goes to overtime you lose your bet.
If they’re betting on Overtime they are placing money that the game will be tied after 60 mins.
Ok was confused when sometimes you say like. Sharks Win. And sometimes Sharks in regulation.
Im swedish , so The english aint so ofc always :p
And what ML means ? :p
Because regulation is 1×2 and moneyline includes OT and Shootout
ML means Moneyline. This means they’re picking this team to win no matter what. Regulation, overtime and shoot out all count.
FLA – Wings? Need help with this one, any toughts?
I think Panthers wins but i don’t like the odds on them. Howard in net i think so Panthers Over 2.5 could be good if the odds are decent.
Thank you.
You guys are on fire lately!
Islanders ML or Over 5.5, what say the people? 🙂
Edit: Actually, nevermind. I’m just going to do the sensible thing and skip that game 😛
You’re absolutley right, Dallas are tricky.
Over would be my pick
I was leaning that way, glad i skipped that game completely 😛
I Won but Only Live Over 2.5 but was a wierd game
Tor
Florida
Devils OT
Dal O5
Blues
Kings
Safe 3-3 tonight. Look forward to ducks and flames next. Think that will be a good parlay 🙂
Now for hockey:
Sabres ML & reg – Sabres are a veteran team who brings it each night vs a mostly AHL team and the Sabres have the edge in goaltending. This is the equivalent of a cross-town rivalry and both teams will be up for the game and the veteran team gets the win.
Blues in reg, 1st per, O5. -1.5 and score 2.5+ – despite last two games Blues have been playing very well and have been scoring a ton of goals. Elliott is back in goal which will motivate the entire team. They have had two days rest and are pretty healthy. Vancouver is on a b2b after losing AT Oilers without scoring a goal and will have a hard time versus a motivated, playoff bound Blues team. Miller has lost 4 of last 5 and and during that time has given up almost 3 gpg. Nucks are very nicked up. Blues all the way.
Devils in reg, ML, O5 and score 2.5+ – I love the way the Devils have played lately. Beating some of the best teams in the league recently has to be great for their confidence. They have also been part of quite a few high scoring games recently. CBJ seems to have run out of steam and BoBo is awful.
Bolts 1st per & reg – Yotes have been playing well and Bolts haven’t been, but the Bolts are a better team and this is the game where they pull out of the doldrums and pound the weaker team. Domingue gets the call for the Yotes and he has been awful, going 2-9 in last 11.
Bruins-Kings O5 – you won’t keep the Bruins scoreless for another 60 mins and they are out for revenge after LAK came into their buidling and whupped their asses. LAK has been hot and will win, but not without a fight from the Bs.
Isles-Stars O5.5 – 7 of last 8 Stars games have gone over and 6 of the 7 were by 7 goals or more. I see lots of scoring tonight from both teams.
that’s all I got. good luck boys
Completely agree on the Blues but I just can’t find it in my heart to bet them. Oh well …
I don’t like the Blues 1st and -1.5 is a little scary. Rest look good.
Ok fine I’ll do it. If they win I’m happy. If they lose I’m rich. Win-win