Written by Scott on Monday, April 4th, 2016
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A great night last night. We went 2-0
First we had the Flyers vs Penguins game to go over 5.5 and the Pens won this for us by themselves in their 6-2 victory. The Flyers are in 7th place with 91 points, the Wings 8th also with 91 and the Bruins are in 9th with 90 points. It’s going to be a crazy finish to the year for these teams.
The last tip of the night was Over 5 in the Bruins vs Blackhawks game. The Hawks scored 6 unanswered goals before the Bruins came to life but it was to late at that point and the Hawks won 6-4. Kane had a huge game. He scored a hat trick and added an assist to bring his point total to 100 on the year which is the first of his 9 year career. This was also coach Quenneville’s 800th win.
The Wild lost 5-1 to the Jets which leaves them in 8th place and still looking to clinch a playoff spot. The Avalanche lost 5-1 to the Blues which leaves them in 9th place, 5 behind the Wild but the have a game in hand.
5 games today and a few of them look like total mismatches.
Panthers vs Maple Leafs Betting Tips:
The Panthers have clinched a playoff spot for only the 2nd time in 15 seasons. The Leafs are tied for last place with the Oilers.
This is the 4th and final game between these teams. The first game was a 5-1 Panthers win, the second was also a Panthers win 4-1 and the third was a 5-2 Leafs win.
I like the Panthers to win this game. If they can get a point in this game then they will clinch home ice advantage in the first round so they will show up for this game and not go into cruise control just because they are in the playoffs. And you have to think the Leafs should be in almost full on tank mode at this point.
Panthers in regulation
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -110 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Over 5
Canada: 1.76 Odds at Pinnacle Sports
USA: -131 Odds at Intertops
Everyone Else: 1.76 Odds at Pinnacle Sports
Rangers vs Blue Jackets Betting Tips:
The Rangers are in the playoffs but haven’t yet clinched. They have lost 3 straight and need to snap out of this streak before the playoffs start.
With a win tonight they will clinch their 6th straight playoff appearance. They have had the Jackets number this year and a win tonight will give them the season sweep. This is a game they can and should win. Their upcoming schedule isn’t as easy as this game. They have the Lightning, Islanders and Red Wings coming up. They recognize this and should jump all over this opportunity.
Rangers in Regulation
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +105 Odds at GT Bets
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
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Good job last night. But there’s something i want to bring up again, not hating, but i admit it’s getting a bit annoying because i hear it pretty much anywhere im discussing hockey.
“And you have to think the Leafs should be in almost full on tank mode at this point.”
I do not know what this is. I see good effort level, big upsets, and guys stepping up from these non-playoff teams. I mean obviously in the bigger picture these teams will lose more than they win just like they did before the trade deadline, but especially after their GM traded away good players and made bad teams even worse. But like i said, im yet to see a team lose in purpose. Sometimes it feels like they work harder than teams fighting for points.
I just want to know what this tank mode is.
Relax! don´t take it personal! what about your predictions? 🙂
Im not mad 😀 im just curious what people mean by it, b/c i can’t figure it out
Picks will come later.
I believe in “tank” mode. When the Leafs ice a roster full of AHL’ers they are definitely in “tank” mode. I agree that these guys are going to play hard and try and earn a job, but these ARE AHL’ers playing a team full of NHL’ers. They are different leagues for a reason.
Does it translate into guaranteed wins? Obviously not, but I think it is worth watching for opportunities like this to cash in on.
You use the Leafs as an example. They are 4-6 in their last 10. 7-13 in their last 20. Not exactly the worst record ever, but if you’re looking at units, they lost 12 of their last 20 in regulation. There is money to be made here!
As for the Canucks … that may be more wishful thinking on my part …
Is that record so much different what they had when we were 3/4 in the season ? Have the Oilers been tanking all season long ?
I mean yeah, like i’ve been talking about here and like you said, these already ‘bad’ teams ice their worst rosters of the season due to trades and not taking any risks in playing guys with minor injuries, so overall they will lose more games than win. But doesn’t the term tanking mean losing in purpose for a better draft pick ?
When predicting a winner, there’s a difference in saying: team x loses this game because i don’t see that roster getting a W out of this game vs team x loses because they’re tanking.
Maybe it’s just the term that bothers me, because it’s impossible to know who actually thinks players lose in purpose and who just uses the term because it’s fun and sums up their overall losing record.
We need some forums!
You’re right in that perhaps the Leafs’ record the last 20, doesn’t look like much different from the record over the whole year, but the difference is in the personnel. I agree 100% that the players are never on board for playing to lose, however management does have some influence in this aspect. Like you said, deadline sell-offs, resting minor injuries etc.
I also agree that “Team X is going to win because Team Y are in tank mode” may not be a valid reason to bet on the game, but I think there is still a play to be made there, and Team Y playing all their call-up players certainly leans the betting odds in Team X’s favor, so why not your decision? Obviously, you still have to watch for value.
In basketball, coaches come out and say “I’m resting Player X & Y this game” and you see the favourite become the dog because of this statement. Wouldn’t this be a form of tanking if only for one game?
Perhaps you’re right and “tanking” has become a catch-all word, but it exists! See pre-Lemieux Penguins for the most widely accepted example. Maybe it just isn’t as obvious today due to disciplinary recourse?
As for the Oilers …
Yeah what about your picks :).
I used to believe in tanking and go all in on heavy favorites who play against bottom teams. I lost a lot of money. It seems logical that teams would not try to win as much in order to get the best possible pick in the draft once they’re nowhere near making the playoffs. However, experience shows, like you said in one of your posts earlier, that those bottom teams play very good hockey at the end of the season once the pressure is off. I don’t believe in tanking anymore.
It makes sense GM’s want that, but players want to win hockey games and this time of the year a lot of new guys will get opportunities to play. You don’t want to be that one guy not trying out there.
But yeah pretty much what you said. This last quarter can be devastating from betting point of view if ppl think teams tank and it’s safe to bet against them.
I don’t think any team loses on purpose in hockey, other sports not so sure. In any case, I think Nucks are a veteran team and not terribly motivated at this point. Leafs on the other hand are full of AHL players who want to impress and they will press. However, i watched them play vs Sabres the other night and they are really bad.
But the Nucks just beat the Sharks and Ducks in b2b nights, of all teams. I agree Sedins haven’t looked very enthusiastic, but a lot of players are trying their best on that team.
That loss against the Sabres is one that happens to every team anywhere during the season. Buffalo just wanted the game more as the Leafs had just had that big win over the Panthers, and in that case the Leafs couldn’t respond (which is understandable considering they ice the worst roster in the whole league atm.) But again in the next game they competed well against the vastly superior Red Wings desperately needing the points and it was a close game.
But you’re right, some players handle it differently.
I don’t buy tanking (By players) and think it’s a myth, but i also don’t buy all the injuries these non-playoff teams have. I mean every single team is without some of their top players and they are all season ending. Whether that’s just my speculation or not, in any case that’s the “GM tanking” that is proven to be there, but GM’s can’t make their teams lose which is funny. They can “do their best” of doing nothing to help the team however.
Tonight i like
FLA
NYR
STL
Why?
I don’t know if Panthers have any motivation at Leafs. Is tricky to chose teams which is already qualified in play off.
My picks for tonight are: Rangers, Islanders, Leafs and Blues.
I got the same tips as above plus Kings. I am afraid though of the leafs and nucks. Not 100% convinced on those..
Tonight picks,
Blue Jackets win %80
Kings win %70
Blues win %90
Lightning win %100
Panthers win %60
Good luck!
Lion King, I betted my house on that Bolts pick last night, so tonight I need to risk my neighbor’s. Hope you’re not fast asleep already 🙂
Rangers Win, FLA/TOR Over 5, STL Win
Rangers cant play lackluster for a 4th game in a row…they must clinch tonight against a inferior team. I like fla/tor over as they have been scoring goals when they face eachother all season. STL still battling for top seed in playoffs with the stars…they will handle arizona tonight with ease.
good luck everyone
Going with S&G plus
Lightning(Team Total) ov2½ -108 = good value against Greiss
LA Kings -1½ +155 – Kings have complete edge over a team that has tanked. Pretty good value here.
non-NHL TOTD: Nova ATS
good luck boys
single parlay: Isles/Bolts over + Cats/TO over
Some good and bad picks last night, went 3-3.
Tonight.
Islanders in regulation
Jackets-Rangers OT
Panthers ML + Kings ML combo
Also im taking a shot at Coyotes PL @ 6.25, one of those games that i think the Blues either win or lose clearly. Wouldn’t recommend to anyone though.
GL !