Written by Graeme on Friday, November 4th, 2016
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It was a 1-1 night last night.
We had Over 5.5 goals in the Oilers/Rangers match and that went over relatively easy with an 8 goal thriller. Can be a bit risky taking that one due to some of Talbots performances lately, plus we know the Rangers defense can be quite sturdy at times so it was nice to win there.
We lost with the Penguins vs Kings. It went to overtime where the Kings made it 5-0 in overtime for them. The Penguins looked a bit lethragic in that game.
Not that it would have mattered but in hindsight I think the bet on that one should have been Penguins to win in regulation. I’ve been discussing in regulation vs including overtime/shootout bets a bit in the comments the past few days. For the most part overtime/shootout, especially with the 3 vs 3 rules, is almost a coin flip.
So if you’re confident in a team to win and they’re favourites – you should be looking at that in regulation bet for the extra value. Let’s say the chances of winning in OT are 50/50. If you bet the Ducks tonight to beat the Coyotes including overtime and shootout, it’s 1.47 odds. If it goes to overtime/shootout you’re risking 1.00 to win 0.47 on a coin flip. Even if they’re a better overtime team the average for success is about 57% so still not much of an edge.
As it is – I’m working on some algorithms to calculate a teams chances of winning in overtime and it puts the Penguins at about 46% against the Kings. So at 1.95 odds I’m overall fine with that bet – but it’s something I’m going to be looking into more as the season goes on, and looking at historical data. Early impressions suggest we’re missing out on some value.
Onto tonights games:
NHL Betting Tips for November 4th, 2016
This was a really tough night. We went through all three games over and over and were close to making no play. The Ducks for example have a couple of key injuries so that put us off them. We like the Wings but don’t see value in their odds.
However while we’ve been going back and forth debating it, the Habs line has moved enough that we can tip the Montreal Canadiens to win.
As a Habs fan myself, I follow a lot of Habs related media etc. And a large part of that is putting me off Montreal tonight – I’ve heard a lot the past couple of days about how this is a “trap” game and the Jackets are going to win. Actually I’ve heard so much about our “poor performance” against the Canucks that I’m half convinced we lost that game!
We’ve been going over it all day looking at the results, diving into stats etc. Honestly I’m a bit brain dead from it all and trying to figure out a play to pick – especially in this game and trying to figure out if Under 5 was viable etc.
Anyway yeah – Habs win. Montoya is in net for the Habs but he’s shown himself to be solid so far in the few games he’s played this season. We just think the odds make this the right play.
We’re on it at 1.94 at Pinnacle and we’d bet it to at least 1.90 as we give Habs enough edge to make it +EV.
Mathematical/Experimental Betting Systems:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. Previous Records: 1st Period System 30-36 (+15.99u), OHL 28-15 (+17.15u)
OHL Betting Tips(1-2, -0.8u): London Knights in regulation. 1.90 odds. Not sure why there are too few tips for this system so far – if my system is too strict or not due to off-season changes. Hopefully just variance.
WHL Betting Tips(9-4, +3.53u): Medicine Hat Tigers 1.84 odds, Spokane Chiefs 1.82
OHL, WHL & AHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
I feel the same way! Went through the data all morning. Tonight is a tough night to pick games. I like the Habs ML tonight, especially at the value you are getting it at, but I definitely feel like the Blue Jackets could hold their own tonight.
@BlueLineBets on Twitter
Only 1 from 4 for me last night and -0.66 unit.
Habs, Red Wings and Ducks.
Regarding yesterday´s Pens lost, I´m getting insane about my logic… then, Lion remind me what you guys have said: that in nhl worst team can beat best team, well, my point is, today Yotes can win, doesn´t they? almost is a must pick, right? also Jets, don´t? anyway they have lost 3 on a row same than RW. Last thought: Habs soon or late going to loose, don´t?
Yotes have SO MUCH value!
I don´t know if I´m right, but I think this match could be consider as a flipcoin, if you win this flipcoin you get good value.
Well if you believe a game is a coin flip, it means it’s 50/50 who wins and therefore the true odds of the game are 2.00. So in that case anything below that is -EV (negative expected value) and anything above that is +EV (positive expected value). You then should be determining at what odds you bet something.
Thks! I got it! I didn´t know (EV) meaning, just thought both teams had equal winning chances and odds books pretend they don´t know, perhaps I´ve been naive and odds really represents facts.
While the worst team can beat the best team – to blindly bet on something like that you’d have to find out what the optimal odds are for doing so. So don’t use that as a reason to bet underdogs blindly etc. If you really want to dive into that do the legwork – gather all the information from the 15/16 season like results and betting odds then find the fine line where it was optimal to bet blindly based on certain odds. Not that you should then blindly follow that – but it gives you a good starting point.
We didn’t go for the Yotes game tonight due to a few injuries and a lack of news about who was playing etc. We do think they have some value but not enough to bet on them.
In regard the Habs – “sooner or later they’ll lose” is bad logic. I mean sure they will but it’s not like the Warriors in the NBA where the odds against them are astronomical – so you can’t blindly bet against the Habs assuming they’ll lose. And a winning streak doesn’t have much impact negatively. What you should be looking for in a situation like this is the Habs showing over-confidence and going up against a team who they’re expected to walk over. That’s where you’ll find value from a streak standpoint. Jackets are not that team.
For an example of that look at some of Buffalos results for example from the last couple of years. You’ll see a bunch of their wins over Top 10 teams are after a Top 10 team had a 3+ game winning streak going on.
Thanks! 🙂
I had the last 2 Yotes games as value bets. I bet on the first one, but with the second game there was a bit more injuries and they also won the second, but close. Those were home games, now they are in Anaheim as an away team. Here comes kind of a new value. I wouldn’t bet on this 3rd win. The last 2 games were value games (for me) also because they were at home. Now they have to play against Anaheim, who also need to win a home game again.
The way of thinking is wrong in my opinion. Bad teams cannot beat good teams so often and who says there are bad and good teams in nhl? I dont agree with that at all. Habs soon or late going to lose but when? Thats the question and why we are looking for answer. I was planning to make Ducks game as 3/15 of lions project but I slept. ☺ I was feeling deeply that ducks are going to win that game. So mate there are no big teams in nhl. Good form and bad form is the answer
I like Montreal, they show they can maintain momentum and not let down: 5-1 after win by 2 goals or more. 5-0 after a 3 game unbeaten streak. 3-1 on road. Except for one game, Habs have scored 3+ goals every game this season. I don’t see them letting down on this one-off road trip between two home stands.
Screw the Pens last night, they should have buried the Kings.
Yeah. Pens was dissapointing so much last night.
They let crosby do all the work 🙁
Honestly think you should take a break and refocus. Get out and enjoy the beautiful weather down in Mission Bay.
I don’t disagree
Sports betting (is) can be cruel. Wins seem to melt away without much of a savouring period – while loses tend to snowball and weigh one down. I craft individual match articles that are 500 to 1,000 words in length and normally close with one single wager. Have had my share of skids over the years and backing off a bit usually helps.
It’s wise to still follow the games but I would suggest reshaping your research checklist as part of a refocus. Or create one if you haven’t already. Scenarios like back-to-back games are not as much of a factor early in the season. Players have access to medical care (intravenous) anytime they feel those”heavy legs”.
Good points, thank you sharing your thoughts. I’ll definitely take them to heart.
The variance in hockey is so much greater than football or basketball, baseball less so. The same patterns and trends that apply in those sports don’t hold sway in hockey or at least to a lesser degree. Rather, hockey is in no small part determined by emotional factors. It’s difficult to take a lesson away from last night’s Habs-CBJ game other than one team came to play and the other didn’t. CBJ is a young team and have bought into whatever Torts is selling. Clearly he had them stoked for last night’s game while the Habs didn’t take them too seriously. An embarassment like that will have a lasting effect on a team. It will be interesting to see how the Habs respond. In the meantime, CBJ have to be walking away with a lot of confidence after knocking off the league’s best team. Anticipating those things are the real challenge. Arto did a good job of that yesterday and I didn’t.
GJ guys! I’ve been viewing this for months now and thanks to u guys, now have some understanding for betting. Before I found the site, I was an occasional better and did a very few research before placing my bets. As of now, it has become a hobby for me; I don’t place bets necessarily for money but more like to be right at my predictions.
Here are my predictions for tonight’s games:
DET – WPG ML 1
– Jets is one of my favorite teams because of Laine and Armia (I’m a Finn native) but they just played B2B games with Capitals and those games were fast and intense hockey even though the Jets should of earned some of the points from the first game. And with the fact that they were forced to reassign players from the Manitooba Moose, I just can’t seem them winning this game.
CBJ – MTL 2
– Do I even have to argue with this? Canadiens are on fire and I just can’t seem them to be defeated by the Blue Jackets, as they have been played so inconsistent during the start of this season.
I guess you could say that’s it for the Canadiens winning streak. What a terrible night indeed.
Hi guys
Project lion 2/15
Jackets win %100
Lets see how far we can go
Who else participate ?
I’m with your project. I appreciate your work! Thanks mate!
We get risk tonight but I trust to Jackets!
I agree with you 🙂
Blue Jackets will win tonight!
This will be a tuff one for the habs!
Do you participate in lion’s project?
Sure
Montreal to much points, they should rest a bit! :)))
Seems like tonight we and the Jackets have the best karma available in life. :)))))
Project lion is going to take another step soon ? Keep staying with it ☺
Wouldn’t bet without own agreement. If you pick sth. strange, I will try to argue. Maybe you (we) can improve this to a real 15 streak!
Of course! We will work all together to make it 15/15
I already work on tomorow games. 4 games smiles me but must choose only one and thats the hard part.
If I say something strange, take it serious ?
Another sucessful night. 10-0 habs has been destroyed
Really tough night for sure. Looked at tonight’s lineup and couldn’t find a thing, not even over/unders I felt confident in. So I said to myself, man I can’t wait to see what Scott and Graeme are able to pick apart, haha. Glad I am not alone in struggling to find value. Figured if anything was getting tipped it would be the Montreal game. I don’t follow Habs closely (God I miss my NHL Gamecenter subscription) so not really sure how well Montoya has played but that is the wild card for me. But do agree the odds are there, so I’ll jump on board.
Interesting night of hockey coming up here, and i think the results will surprise a lot of people.
I really like what the Jackets have done lately. They have all kinds of positivity around the team and are competitive in every game. Bobrovsky is playing really well and they have different guys stepping up offensively. That being said the Canadiens are still the better team and they’re completely pressure free playing with confidence on the road. Overall though, i think the Blue Jackets are good enough with the help of Bobrovsky (and the lack of Carey Price) to get this game to OT and ultimately win it. So yeah im calling it now, Canadiens win streak ends tonight. Could be one of those late game tying goals by Columbus and then they ride the momentum to ultimately win it. Value considered, im going with OT in this one. Even if i wasn’t this confident in OT, for a tight game like this 4.00 odds are always at least decent.
Red Wings – Jets is a tough one to bet, but i can’t shake off the feeling that the Wings are being heavily overplayed here. Just can’t justify 1.92 odds at all. Fact is they’ve lost 3 in a row and played very poorly the last couple of home games. They have good depth but lack star players to get the job done in these type of situations, so i can definitely see the big goalie Hellebuyck being a pain in the butt for the Wings tonight. At the same time though, Jets are dealing with some key injuries and when it comes down to keeping the lead at the buzzing Joe in the 3rd period, i don’t have confidence in them either right now. Again, OT (4.25 odds!) are especially good here and worth a shot in my opinion.
Surprise surprise, going with another OT in the Coyotes-Ducks game (4.25 odds). Coyotes are feeling it right now and we have another goalie playing well in L. Domingue. Coyotes are always trouble for the Ducks at the start of the season (won first 2 meetings last year, 2 of 3 in 14-15). But im confident in the Ducks ability to battle back in this game and it never hurts that the Coyotes played last night.
So yeah, im going with a bold prediction of 3/3 OT games, continuing the trend from last night where we had 6/12 and a couple very near OT games as well. Im not expecting them all to go right, in fact i have a feeling we could see some late game winning goals in regulation tonight, but only have to hit one of these 3 games to make profit because of the high odds.
GL !
You Rocks man! overwhelming out of the box thinking! 😀
Thanks 😀 im kind of kicking myself for not just going for the Jackets straight up and here’s why:
Whenever you don’t quite show up (Canucks outplayed the Habs in the last game, but Habs won it because of Price) what usually happens is you get blown away in the next game. Recent example that i can think of is when the Red Wings were on a winning streak, they didn’t show up and got beaten by the slumping Bruins at home. Now instead of regrouping they had another lackluster performance against the Panthers in the next game. There’s already been a few games like these already this season.
It’s just human nature. It’s tough to flip a switch after complacency kicks in, and you ultimately need a real wakeup call (like losing 2 games in a row).
I totally missed this because the Habs won that game against the Nucks. It’s pretty early in the season so don’t have that routine thinking yet.
you called it
LOL 10-0
Tonight i see an under 5 goals on Jackets vs Habs
So much for the Habs 3-0 and not half way through the 1st
Yeah . Lol Montoya.
Poor Montoya, 6.0 Jackets
Had the Ducks last night in Regulation 🙂
Won’t touch the Habs unless they are at home which then makes them a strong regulation bet.
Do you guys know if there’s a place where we can find GF and GA for teams but home and away separated?
sofascore.com check there maybe you may find something