Written by Graeme on Saturday, November 12th, 2016
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A winning night last night as we correctly tipped the Flyers/Leafs game to go Over 5.5.
We also went 2-0 in the AHL and 1-0 in the WHL. Nice little Friday night.
I think 6 games is the general sweet spot for us when it comes to the betting tips – just in terms of analysis. With only 3 games we tend to overanalyze them really looking for a pick, and with 9 or more games we’re sometimes overwhelmed and look to eliminate bets early on.
6 games is really nice though because it allows us to have a really good back and forth discussion. There were a lot of potential picks yesterday but we narrowed it down to just the one. And it’s interesting because the 3 other picks we were close to making all came extremely close to winning or losing. We had looked into a Jets win, Devils win and Oilers/Stars over. It was neat that it was ones we just couldn’t pull the trigger on – and all 3 of them ended up being extremely close.
Working together doing tips is really helpful and something we’d suggest. Whether it’s in the comments below or with a friend etc – get them to play devils advocate. That’s generally what we do right off the bat – I’ll say to Scott “I think the Blackhawks might win tonight”. He’ll then look at it from the Capitals perspective etc essentially trying to turn me off the bet. If he can’t then we’ll explore it further together and make sure that it makes sense.
Alright it’s Saturday and we’ve got 11 games on the board. Let’s get to it. For the first time this season we actually have a 1st period betting tip too. Remember that those are very high variance. Last season we won 30 and lost 36 – but due to the added value profited 15.99 units.
Leafs vs Penguins Betting Tips:
You’ve got two top teams on offense, and the Leafs leak goals like crazy. Penguins haven’t exactly been top on defending either.
I’m a bit concerned about the Leafs recent road performances and their lack of goals on the road in their last 3 games. But I like what I saw from their offence against the Flyers and Canucks. I’m hoping their play from that Philly game comes in here.
Over 5.5 Goals. 1.88 at Pinnacle.
Sharks vs Lightning Betting Tips:
Jones has been fairly solid this season but I think he’s going to have a tough night dealing with the Tampa offense which looks to be getting back in business. The Sharks offense too looks hot after what they did to the Capitals and Panthers.
I’m banking on those being an offensive game tonight. The last few games between these two have went over and I’m hoping this continues the run. Over 5 Goals at 1.74 odds.
Flames vs Rangers Betting Tips:
Coming off that huge upset loss to the Vancouver Canucks, you have to expect the Rangers to be motivated for this one. They’re overall the better team. Lundqvist has been a bit leaky this season and initially we looked at Over 5.5 in this one. However the Flames performances recently have been disappointing – their offense has been dominated by the better teams such as the Hawks and Capitals and we see similar here. The Rangers are overall just the better team in almost every way, and we’ll go with Rangers to win at 1.75 ods.
Mathematical/Experimental Betting Systems:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. Previous Records: 1st Period System 30-36 (+15.99u), OHL 28-15 (+17.15u)
1st Period System: Florida Panthers at 2.70 odds.
OHL Betting Tips(3-2, +1.15u): Sarnia Sting in regulation at 1.70 odds. Erie Otter in regulation at 1.90 odds.
AHL Betting Tips(4-0, +4.01u) : Springfield Thunderbirds to win at 1.92 odds.
WHL Betting Tips(10-6, +2.58u): Moose Jaw Warriors in regulation at 1.90 odds.
1st Period Betting:
Canadians: Sports Interaction, Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv & 888 Sports.
Americans: BetOnline. or Bovada.
Everyone Else: Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv or 888 Sports.
OHL, WHL & AHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
Your 3 picks plus:
> Islanders @ Panthers | OVER 5
> Wild @ Flyers | OVER 5
Good weekend everybody !
Canadiens win in regulation (against the Kings Price proved once again why he’s the only superstar goalie in the world, i just don’t see how the Wings could break him especially now that the Habs are playing better again. Radulov, Weber and Galchenuyk are the type of difference makers that the Wings have none.)
Sharks-Bolts OT (i literally don’t see anything to separate these teams in this particular game, just so ridiculously even i expect it to be that way on the ice and go to OT)
Wild win in regulation (Dubnyk is hot right now, Flyers goalies suck. that’s a tough matchup for the Flyers, especially because Minnesota just lost a couple of back to back games before getting a huge win over the Pens, so im expecting them to want to build on that and work hard tonight)
Penguins handicap -1.5 (as mentioned, the Wild beat the Pens, which means they will be looking to bounce back here. Pens are one of the best home teams and there’s quite a significant difference between Toronto and the latest Stanley Cup winner in terms of quality. i also think Enroth plays tonight, he will get smoked)
Canes win in regulation (going surprise mode on this one. why i think this happens is very simple. Canes need a win big time, they have nothing to lose going against one of the best teams in the league meanwhile the Caps are feeling good about themselves right now and they don’t see the Canes as a very interesting opponent, especially on a b2b on the road. And once the Caps get overconfident here, it’s very very tough to match the Canes work ethic during the game, can’t just flip a switch)
Blues win in regulation (if they somehow don’t win this i’ll be very disappointed. they have the better team, Allen is playing well in goal and they are not in a position to do anything less than work extremely hard here. they’ve lost way too many games recently. at the same time the BJ’s have been bad in the past couple of games, and Bobrovsky’s confidence has taken a bit of a hit)
Bruins win in regulation (Coyotes are a bit of a mess at the moment, they’ve got some decent results lately but on the ice they’ve got progressively worse. Bruins have the type of top players Yotes don’t have and they’re firing on many cylinders right now. can’t really see the Yotes pulling this one off)
Good luck boyz !
You sure that price is in net tonight?
If it’s montoya that’ll be a though game
Yeah i thought Montoya was going to be in net too considering they play the Hawks tomorrow, but apparently not. Price is confirmed per dailyfaceoff.com
Awesome simple explanation for describe good opportunities in a very, very competitive league! yesterday after S&G tip was a piece of cake bet PHI/TOR confidentelly, nevertheless after failing for several days being assertive, this morning didn´t have a single clue for betting nhl today, now I can distinguish in between good chances! Hope your predictions be profetic! Cheers mate! 😀
I really like your thoughts – I’ll follow 😉
With the late add of Rangers -1.5 and if they manage to keep a 2 goal lead to the end, the night ends at +22.9 units for me, not bad.
But boy oh boy Allen & Blues defense really crapped the bed against the Blue Jackets. Looking back at last season Columbus scored 7 goals in a similar type of game, so there’s definitely something there why they’re able to get to them so easily. Disappointing for sure, but something to keep in mind in the future.
In hindsight should’ve stayed away from the Wild. I kinda had a feeling the Flyers would be able to outwork them and overcome the goalie differences, but something threw me off that mindset and i started to like the Wild more. Oh well.
Sharks impress me, although the game was as even on the ice as i expected, the way the shut down the Bolts shooters was impressive. My OT bets really suck at the moment 🙁
But yeah overall good night. Starting to get into the NHL season a bit more lately so im probably going to start posting more consistently.
Will look forward to that, great picks yesterday 🙂 Thanks mate.
Hope you will post every day, I like your picks and your insight on games. Good luck!
Respect to CBJ: 4 straight home wins against Hawks, Stars, Habs, Ducks & Blues! (scored 28 goals)
Habs win Reg.
Rangers win Reg.
Big Money win 🙂
2 from 4 last night and +1.6units.
For tonight Ducks, Blues, Bruins and Flyers.
2-1 Real Picks Coming soon ….
Carolina ML
48-46 (+6.40u)
Rangers in reg +120
Bruins in reg +115
Panthers in reg +100
Panthers/Rangers/Bs/Caps +800
Wild -110
Sabres u1.5 1st / Caps +177
Habs/Wings u5 +115
u1 1st period +175
Blues/ (college foots) Colorado +105
@nightm4n4g3r on the twittersphere
Habs
Pens
Bruins
Bruins in Regulation
Rangers in Regulation
NJD/BUF U5
TOR/PIT O5.5
MTL/DET U5
@bluelinebets:disqus on Twitter
Bruins regulation – have looked sharp the last 2-3 games. I think they are the better team and hopefully they can keep it up against a struggling Coyotes
Capitals regulation – got a big win last night against the Hawks. They have not been firing on all cylinders the last couple of games but I hope to see a strong performance by Ovechkin, TJ and Kuznetsov tonight and get the win
Canadiens regulation – so far a perfect 9-0 home record. They will loose eventually but most likely not tonight against Wings which does not seem to have enough offensive power
GL
Project lion 1/15
Montreal wins against wings
I can’t find AHL on Bovada…
DUCKS/Preds 1 ( X )2
DEVILS/SABRES (1) X 2
HABS – Wings 1 (X )2
CBJ / ST BLUES ( 1) X 2
PHANTERS / ISLES (1) X 2
Devils!! They are 6-1 against sabres over last 3 seasons. And also the under.
Lion project
8/15
Boston bruins in reg.
Progress: 10kr>20kr>30kr>46.66kr>83.99kr>180.58kr>337.60kr, CASHOUT>10kr>17.70kr>36.28kr?
Swe?
Yup 🙂
how i can find lion project noob here