Written by Graeme on Saturday, November 26th, 2016
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What a great night of betting, and great day of action in the NHL.
We went 2-1 with the NHL Tips with both our bets in regulation winning – the Capitals and the Predators. Both teams won with relative ease which was nice. We lost with the Rangers vs Flyers Over 5.5 and that was one hell of an intense game. Props to the Flyers for at least making it interesting – the heads could have went down after 3-0, but they absolutely POUNDED the Rangers net and Lundqvist stepped up big time.
I also correctly predicted the Coyotes beating the Oilers which was a very nice win – alas that was not an official betting tip but hopefully many of you got on that one. That McDavid shot at 0.00001 too late – so great.
We also went 2-3 for +1.05 unit profit in the 1st period system which was good to see. In the AHL it was a 1-0 night for 0.9 profit, OHL had a 2-1 night for 0.95 profit and the WHL had a 2-0 evening for 1.6 units profit.
So overall if you had bet everything we tipped yesterday you would have went 9-5 for a healthy 5.31 units profit. Add in that Coyotes result and it’s a +6.76 unit day.
Very nice to have a big day like that all across the board. Even nice to have hockey on all freaking day. Wish they could do that every day.
We turn our attention to Saturday with a bit of a lighter schedule in 9 games. No early games today. Lot of very interesting ones out there and quite a few we’re close to picking but not.
I’m seeing conflicting reports on who the Jackets are putting in net – if it’s Bobrovsky I’d personally throw a small bet on them at 2.55 odds. Speaking of goalies – I’d be tempted on the Penguins tonight assuming Murray is in net. However the odds are extremely poor and the Devils always up their game against the Penguins. That one we decided to pass on due to that.
I kind of dig the Canucks tonight and will place a small bet but there’s just too many injuries involved there to tip that one. Pickard has a solid record so far so it’s not like Varl being out is a massive blow.
My system likes the Kings to beat the Blackhawks, and so does Scott. I’m a bit hesitant though. With the odds the way they are we’d have to take the Kings in regulation and the Hawks can be a tough team to beat. I do like this run the Kings have going and it’s made for some fun hockey but I can’t bring myself to bet on that one.
Let’s get to the actual betting tips:
Canadiens vs Red Wings Betting Tips:
Big injuries seem to spur a team on this season initially – which is a bit of a concern going into this one as the Red Wings are without Howard. But it’s not like a Taylor Hall or Sidney Crosby type of player – Mrazek has played 11 games this season so it’s just a regular rotation for the Wings in that sense.
The Habs offense still feels so hard to count on at times – which is silly as they have the 3rd best GFG in the league. They’re not as solid on the road. Wings like to keep games tight. We do like the Habs to win but are going to take the added insurance of overtime/shootout and hope Price keeps rolling.
Montreal Canadiens to win.
Canada: 1.72 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -145 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 1.72 Odds at 888 Sports.
Capitals vs Leafs Betting Tips:
We’re going to take Capitals to win here. We were debating the Over 5.5 initially however the Capitals seem to be preparing for this game by saving Holtby for it. They clearly respect the Leafs offense and are taking them seriously. That’s good to see from the Caps who often get complacent and it costs them.
The Capitals offense is looking very good and they have a strong ability to control a game. Leafs have struggled in tight games like that recently such as against the Canes and the Habs. Capitals often look like they can score at will and considering the way the Leafs have dropped a few leads even if the Leafs take an early lead you can’t count the Caps out. While if the Caps take an early lead you could really see it being a tight 2-1 affair.
Canada: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
USA: -115 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
Mathematical/Experimental Betting Systems:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. Previous Records: 1st Period System 30-36 (+15.99u), OHL 28-15 (+17.15u)
1st Period System (3-4, +1.75u): Blues 2.70, Canucks 3.60, Sharks 2.60, Kings 2.70. As mentioned yesterday it’s high variance so 0-4 wouldn’t shock me.
OHL Betting Tips(6-7, -1.1u): Saginaw Spirit/Kitchener Rangers Over 7.5 at 1.85.
WHL Betting Tips(13-7, +3.86u): Medicine Hat Tigers -1.5 at 1.85 odds. Spokane Chiefs in regulation at 1.90 odds. Tri-City Americans -1.5 at 1.88 odds.
1st Period Betting:
Canadians: Sports Interaction, Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv & 888 Sports.
Americans: BetOnline. or Bovada.
Everyone Else: Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv or 888 Sports.
OHL, WHL & AHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
Panthers, Hurricanes, Avalanche and Ducks.
Combo:
Under 5 @ Hurricanes vs Senators
Canadiens ML
Avalanche in regulation
Total odds @ 5.49
GL to everyone!
Vancouver ML ODD 2.5 with 1 unit
The next part is kind of challenging my luck
Combo 1
Montreal ML
Pittsburgh reg
St Louis ML
Vancouver ML
ODD 10.98 with 0.1 units
Combo 2
Montreal ML
Pittsburgh reg
St Louis ML
Hawks ML (also from my program)
ODD 10.75 with 0.1 units
Are you sure about Vancouver?
50:50 as always. The goalies are fine for me. So I placed the bet. And bigger injuries @ Avalanche.
How more beaside Varmalov and the capitan Landeskog? Pickard have been playing good, so the goalie doesn’t seems to be a problem for Avalanche.
I know this is insane, but I don’t think Pickard will make a 5-1-0. Also I think Markstrom will do a good job. And it’s good for this bet if Landeskog is still out.
Generally I’m mostly based on what my program tells me and I feel fine for it, so I bet on it as always.
I can’t guarantee a win and I’m not trying to bet against you. Just following the plan.
Sure! You have been doing a great job! GL
you have been caught now. You remember my sayings? Replacements gives more than actually is?
I was a bit wrong informed about the Canucks injuries. I didn’t expect that Jannick Hansen and Christopher Tanev are out. But with bigger injuries I was pointing on Landeskog. At all I stay on this bet.
With your words: Canucks should win. 😉
such games are good games to gather some point for avalanche if they want to be part of playoffs.
I see.
Haha
Haha. I am amazed of your job my friend ?
I would prefer if we would agree on one bet. But you are always starting to go for your thoughts. It could be such a nice thing winning together. 😛
I am out of my dicipline which is not good. Except this year I never went with reg but this year I do it lot. Must stop playing on reg time. Whatever you win is good
Thanks for the Canucks tip – it more or less covered my own bets which were not spot on last night 🙂
Project lion 2/15
Kings win %100 in reg.
Project lion combi
Canadiens win %100
Panthers win %100
Capitals win %100
Blues win %100
Avalanche win %100
Good luck everyone
Sports select parlay of Habs (2.00), Pens (1.70), Avalanche (1.90). Was close to adding Under 5.5 in Canes/Sens but stayed off. $20 to win $130
Also have a feeling Leafs take it to the Caps tonight.
Maple Leafs in regulation @ 2.60 / +167
Why: My system says Leafs win (or that they basically have a solid chance, whether or not they manage to pull it off is ultimately for me to judge). Reason being they’re a desperate bunch right now, at home, going up against a team that’s playing solid hockey. That tends to fire up teams (and the crowd) like no tomorrow, kind of like David vs Goliath. I have these type of games stored in one category, and it truly is amazing how 95% of the time the home team does not lose it in regulation (when not counting teams that are completely lost, like last years Canadiens, or like how the Islanders are looking right now), and if they fall behind they always come back to tie it. I really like the Leafs squad and those young guns are a treat to watch when they get fired up at home. Matthews got the monkey off his back last game. And most importantly, Frederik Andersen is back in net and he’s been solid (FWIW, had a shutout in his only game vs the Caps last year). All things considered i hope the Leafs can pull it off in regulation, possibly after a real nailbiter of a finish.
What can go wrong: Oh boy, i do fear OT and can’t shake the feeling that it might be the right bet here. Leafs are not exactly a defensive juggernaut when protecting 1 goal leads, and with Holtby in net it’s going to be tough to burst out to a multiple goal lead while also keeping Ovie & Co. out of the scoresheet. But im giving the Leafs a go tonight, Caps already lost in regulation to the Hurricanes and Oilers on the road this year so they are not the virtually unbeatable monster from last season.
Hurricanes ML @ 2.00 / +100
Why: I love how the Canes are playing right now. They can move the puck quickly, generate pressure in the offensive zone and defend extremely well. Also Ward has been lights out. That’s a good combination to have for a bounce back game. Also, the Sens suck at stringing together more than 2 wins in a row. They’ve only done that once this season, and that was when the Canucks struggled big time and couldn’t score to save their life. I do like the added insurance of a moneyline, however.
What can go wrong: Goalies don’t stay hot forever, and since the 14-15 season, Anderson has been better against the Canes than Ward vs Sens. Also i see this is a tight game where both teams will go after it and we’ll see chances both ways. One lucky bounce could easily decide the game, and if the Sens happen to get one it’s most likely going to be game changing.
Canadiens in regulation @ 2.25 / +125
Why: There’s a reason why the Habs stomped the Red Wings 5-0 last time around. They’re the better team with difference makers, while the Wings are basically “just” a bunch of decent players. Price has been a tough goalie for the Wings to beat in the past, and he will play a big role tonight. Mrazek is flopping all over the crease, and so far this year he’s been anything but a confident goalie. I expect the team with the better goaltending and top players to win on the scoresheet. Not doubting Detroit’s effort though.
What can go wrong: Sometimes when you turn the corner like the Wings have done after the couple of games, you might get some bounces your way. If this happens i can already hear the Wings commentators talking about justice and how getting a lucky win is deserved after bad bounces earlier in the season.
Panthers in regulation @ 2.10 / +110
Why: Blue Jackets put in a great effort to bounce back last night. Now it’s the Panthers turn to do the same. They’re great responding at home and know how to turn momentum swings into goals. McElhinney is in net for the BJ’s and unless he can put on a show (doesn’t sound too likely), i like the Panthers to force their way into victory.
What can go wrong: Columbus is a great team getting pucks to the net. Once again bad bounces are always a small possibility. Also don’t like the value in this one too much. In my opinion it should’ve been higher.
Penguins -1.5 @ 2.20 / +120
Why: Both teams need to have a wake-up game. It’s just that the Devils without Hall are so much worse. Pens are the reigning cup champs and know how to get it done. Home advantage, Murray in net who seems to give the team a lot more confidence and better goaltending than Fleury is a good combination to have for this game. Also Kinkaid got smoked the last time he played the Pens.
What can go wrong: Not really sure to be honest. I guess it could be a boring finish and the Pens win it by just one goal. Or they jump on to a 2-3 goal lead and then sleep the 3rd period, making everybody around the world open their first beer of the night after the Devils tie it up.
Wild-Blues OT @ 4.00 / +300
Why: Value for one. Wild can ride the momentum here and play another good game, it’s not necessarily a bad thing they play so quickly after that impressive win vs the Pens. Keep the good feel going you know ? But ultimately i have a tough time seeing the Blues lose it straight up in regulation, given the results they’ve had + the way Allen has been playing lately. So logically, OT doesn’t sound too far-fetched. These two teams always play some tight games.
What can go wrong: Everything.
Ducks-Sharks OT @ 4.00 / +300
Why: Ducks are a desperate team right now. And whenever a good team like the Ducks are desperate, that’s something you have to take seriously. But after 3 losses they’re gripping their sticks a bit too tight and can’t win in regulation against a high-confidence Sharks team. OT seems logical.
What can go wrong: Bernier vs Jones. Jones is hot and while Bernier has been good too, Sharks have lit him up in the past.
That’s it for me tonight. Good luck !
Nice start to the night. Leafs, Canes and Panthers all leading after 1st. Kinkaid standing on his head making 19 saves in the 1st period against the Pens.
Surprisingly, Bob is in for the Jackets (honestly, why?). Seems like Torts is trying way too hard. Hopefully doesn’t pay off.
I have a late addition to my bets. Kinkaid standing on his head gave me an idea. So earlier today i thought about the Avs, but there was something that in my head said no, even though there was a lot of things why i could’ve backed them.
I’ve made some observations about goalie situations, and when backup goalies play well, i don’t have the time to explain why, but i think there’s a good chance Markstrom plays lights out tonight, while Pickard doesn’t have a very good game. (i know Markstrom isn’t technically a backup, but he’s not the clear #1 either).
So im going to go for the value and give it a shot. Canucks in regulation at a 3.40 price.
Hi. Still confident on Canucks?
Isn’t this confusing? Pittsburgh ML @ 1.36 or 1.4. They needed a win, they had Murray and their stars, but they crashed all the prediction with this game. Who would take the ML on Pittsburgh? I thought about, but the ODD wasn’t worth to take. And here we go, they go in OT and win the game. Man I wished they just lost this if not being able to win in reg. And I was trapped by the ODD. Who bets on ML with 1.36 1.4??? And betting on Devils ML wouldn’t make more sense…
Yep. Normally i don’t go for those odds. It was one of those things where it seemed just too easy. These games happen every once in a while, and should just stay away to be honest.
I studied a little bit this games and my thought is:
Montreal
Colombus
Blues
Sharks
I backed Pitsburg and washington as well
5Dimes is not putting up NCAA college hockey anymore – anybody recommend other sites that do consistently?
Well fuck, all my 4 teams to win in regulation, everyone wins it in OT. 🙁
What a donk play by Pittsburgh! SHG against Devils?! 0/5 PP?! They should lost this game! Today is another day.