Written by Graeme on Saturday, December 3rd, 2016
Follow @BetNHL
We won with our lone tip last night of the Sharks beating the Habs.
San Jose took an early lead just as I expected and the Habs couldn’t tie it up. To their credit they tried and hit the crossbar and post a few times. However on the other end of the ice Price made some key saves as well. There were two solid goaltending performances last night in that game.
In the other game the Calgary Flames snuck out the win over the Minnesota Wild. It was a typical battling performance from Calgary but I was impressed with how offensive they were forcing Dubs into 29 saves.
We move onto Saturday with a busy schedule including 4 early games. I’m very curious about the Bruins vs Sabres game. This Sabres offense is on fire but they’re going up against Rask so that’s going to be a very interesting one.
These aren’t actual tips but I was very close to taking the Senators for the win. They’re a nice price at 2.10 odds and I’m just not convinced on the Panthers at the moment. Luongo has been scary good lately though, Ryans injury and the Sens goaltending situation is just enough to put me off.
I also think the Capitals pull out the win in Tampa. But when it comes down to it my main reasoning is “I can’t see the Capitals losing 3 games in a row” so obviously that’s not enough for a pick.
Let’s see what we’ve got today in official betting tips:
Predators vs Devils Betting Tips:
You just can’t bet against the Predators at home at the moment. Nashville are really clicking. This is by no means an easy game – the Devils play some damn tight hockey and love to take games to OT with the most games to OT in the league.
Games between the two have always been tight. Honestly if you’re someone who bets OT regularly this is probably a good spot for that especially with Hall back. However I think the Predators are on a roll. They’ve just looked so dominant at home I’ve got to take them.
Predators in Regulation.
Canada: 2.08 Odds at BetOnline..
USA: -+107 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 2.08 Odds at BetOnline..
Penguins vs Red Wings Betting Tips:
It was nice having that bet on the Wings/Panthers game on Thursday. It allowed me to really focus on Detroit more and watch them over the course of an entire game. And I gotta say I wasn’t impressed. They look extremely sloppy. It wouldn’t surprise me if their defense were high as kites throughout the game. They just had no drive to them.
It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Pittsburgh. However they got back on track with a big win over the Dallas Stars and I like them to continue that form. They’re very good at home, have a good record against Detroit and I feel their players are going to take advantage of the Red Wings slack play. I feel confident in the Pens tonight to the point I was very tempted to take them at -1.5 but I’ll lessen the risk here as Wings have been surprisingly tight lately.
Penguins in Regulation.
Canada: 1.82 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -122 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.82 Odds at 888 Sports.
Leafs vs Canucks Betting Tips:
A lot of bad blood and drama going into this one and it could be a heated game with a lot of penalties. Both teams are going to want to win this one that little bit more. Canucks are above average scoring at home and while the Leafs on the road haven’t shown a lot of offensive prowess – I like them to bounce back strong after being shut out against the Flames the other night.
Over 5.5 Goals incl OT/SO..
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Sports Interaction + $20 Free Bet.
USA: +100 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
Avalanche vs Stars Betting Tips:
This is one of those games where before I even glanced at it I said “Oh it’s going to be high scoring”. So that’s probably affected my judgement somewhat – instead of looking at it with no bias I’m looking to back up my reasoning for it to go over 5.5 goals.
Neither goalie is exactly lighting the world on fire. Both teams are on losing streaks and want to turn it around so they’re going to be throwing caution to the wind that much more. Lot of high scoring games when the two teams meet. The only real negative are their overall stats for the season on offense – both are below average. However both of their defenses are terrible.
Over 5.5 Goals incl OT/SO.
Canada: 2.10 Odds at Sports Interaction + $20 Free Bet.
USA: +100 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
Mathematical/Experimental Betting Systems:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. Previous Records: 1st Period System 30-36 (+15.99u), OHL 28-15 (+17.15u)
1st Period System (8-17, -0.8u): Florida Panthers 2.95.
OHL Betting Tips(7-9, -2.25u): Peterborough Petes in regulation at 1.90 odds.
WHL Betting Tips(16-12, +1.31u): Spokane Chiefs at 2.85.
AHL Betting Tips(8-5, +2.41u): Ontario Reign to win at 1.68 odds.
1st Period Betting:
Canadians: Sports Interaction, Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv & 888 Sports.
Americans: BetOnline. or Bovada.
Everyone Else: Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv or 888 Sports.
OHL, WHL & AHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
“Great” night for me last night, -3units.
Tonight maybe will be “worst”.
Sabres, Caps, Avalanche and Ducks.
What is your reasoning for each pick?
First of all, i have a poor english and i’am to lazy to write. Second, i hate to make elaborate analysis. At the end of the game you may look like a fool.In sport in general and NHL in particular.
Of course i have my reasons when i make my picks.
Old users from the site know this is my style. Name my picks and that’s all.
Preds, Pens (in regulation), Rangers all locks.
Feeling like Philly should be able to handle Chicago this afternoon as well. What you think? Toews out and Hawks have won 1 out of their last 16 visits there. Philadelphia also needs the game more to start climbing back into the Metro race and honestly has more offensive threats on that roster right now. I also feel the Hawks are largely overrated and lack depth.
Reasonably confident about this pick. Thoughts?
I wouldn’t say the Hawks are overrated. They’re still a quality team through and through. They’ve had a few lucky bounces this season(they didn’t deserve to beat the Stars in both those games). What impresses me most about them is you can rarely count them out of a game. They battle in every game.
I personally couldn’t back the Flyers but I can tell you really like them today and are confident about it so I’d say go for it. Those are the bets you have to make.
I hope not 🙂
I agree with you about having to trust your instincts because every time I don’t (like the other night when I was feeling Florida over Detroit and Anaheim over Van and went with “safer picks” of Caps over Isles and Rangers over Sabres) you regret it. Wouldn’t you agree though that the Hawks depth, especially at forward is pretty weak? I mean Motte, Schmaltz, Hartman, Hinostroza…who are these guys. And they also go to OT like crazy in games they should win. I just think the Flyers are more talented, need the game more and Chicago historically can’t win there. As a Habs fan coming off a game in SJ I know what that’s all about. Really feel like Philly completes a nice parlay with those other 3. Don’t see a better fourth pick on the board
I agree with you that the Blackhawks don’t have their usual depth this year, but the Flyers are not the more talented team. The Hawk still have several potential hall of famers in their line-up. Full disclosure, I am from Chicago, but I do think the Hawks lose this one today.
Offensively on paper I really feel like they are but I respect the Hawks winning pedigree.
Anyways I went with Rangers (in reg), Flyers ML, Preds ML, Pens (in reg) $20 parlay to win $175. Feel good it should be a winner. What you think?
Should be a fun parlay to watch. I wonder if the Canes look for a little revenge having given up a 2-0 lead the last time they played the Rangers? I think the Hawks will make you sweat a little but the Flyers probably take it.
I really like your picks today – I’m adding Rangers in regulation (@1.900)
Yes sir me too. With Leighton starting do I need the ML insurance on the Rangers though? Parlaying Rangers with Flyers, Preds, and Pens (in regulation).
It’s a bit annoying for me that I have to swim against the stream so many times. But the last time I listened to all those comments and tips I regreted it: It was the game Caps vs Islanders where I changed my mind to bet on the Hurricanes and stayed away from this massiv profit.
Preds regular? I don’t hope so! 😛
NJ Devils ML ODD 2.55 with 2 units
I know you won´t listen but #s don´t fav:
Devs lost L4 in a row & 3-7-4 as visitor
Preds 8-1-1 @ home & 10-4-2 as fav
Anyway: #s don´t play but facts along players! so BOL! 🙂
So you think about sth like
Devs lost L5 in a row & 3-8-4 as visitor
Preds 9-1-1 @ home & 11-4-2 as fav?
I prefer
Devs W1 in a row & 4-7-4 as visitor
Preds 8-2-1 @ home & 10-5-2 as fav
You´re good persuading!
I have to accept that you´re right!
I stay away, just in case… I´d bet +1.5 but odds are not good!
There is no need to discuss. 😛 Hoped that looking on some future numbers could improve your opinions. I can’t tell the same stuff every week. (and nobody pays me for analyses 😉 )
Congrats!
You can´t complaint about my comments: I told you that #s don´t play and you were right regarding your logic. 😀
😛
Do you have other tips for tonight? :p
No, but there could be a nice pick for tomorrow. 😉
So disgusting to be on the other side of it though… :/
Grtz on the winning pick.
wow. great picks as usual 🙂
Let’s have some fun tonight with a combo
Detroit ML (Let’s see how Coreau is doing against inconsistent Penguins)
Tampa ML (Let’s see how Bishop tries to restore his stats)
ODD 6.4 0.05 units (doesn’t count to my project)
Flyers in reg. @ 2.22
Why? Simple, best PP vs worst PK!
That’s all for now. GL to everyone!
I like this pick haha. Parlay it with Rangers, Preds and Pens (in regulation).
As usually @alanson:disqus say: “I also don’t belive Darling will do 5-0.” 🙂
Easy 😉
unless NJ has miracle comeback you’re 3 for 4 so far
I was at the gym and came home after checking my phone last at 4-1. Couldn’t believe it was going OT. Then the Preds literally control the puck the whole OT and lose…wtf
Miracles exists! WoW!!!
2016-12-03
Lion project 1/15 (NHL)
Unlucky NHL night yesterday as i lost on overtime, the gutfeeling was not on my side 😛 But we still won the NBA bet so all good! 🙂 Made up a new rule as well! As i now have 2 Lion projects, 1 in NHL and 1 in the NBA, if 1 bet loses i cash out the other one, i will still count the streak but start at 10 kr again on both!
So moving on to tonight, we’ve got an early one and another one later during the night ( for me ). NBA bet and second NHL bet comming up later tonight!
First one
NY Rangers REG. (1.83)
Progress: 10kr>18.33kr?
SPREADSHEET (15 bet challenges) = http://www.betdog.eu/profile/Lawellys_Predictions
I just saw your spreadsheet, good job mate! thanks for sharing!
Nice! 😀 And NP! =)
awesome job. Tailed your today’s plays
Thanks and good luck to both of us! 😀
Well done for the Rangers ! That was a tight game until the 3rd period!! Are you gonna play something for this night ?
Yes, actually fell asleep xD Working on it now! 🙂 Stay tuned! Will be in a new post including the NBA pick here in the comment section.
1-1 yesterday for -0.17u (+1.88u in Dec.)
Love these picks today. I’m also on the Preds and Penguins in Regulation. Excited to watch that Boston/Buffalo game but can’t pull the trigger on a wager. I like Hawks/Flyers O5 though.
Capitals are going to win and win by 2+ goals. Bolts are leaky as hell and Caps are going to come out with fire in their eyes after taking the Isles too lightly. Both goalies have not been on top of their game so I see this game going over. At -125 not great odds, but I think it’s push at the very least. This won’t be a defensive slog. To me this is the game with the most value in today’s slate.
Canes-NYR tough to find value anywhere on this game but I think the Blue Shirts come out on top and probably blow the Canes out. Canes have been tough so it’s not a gimme. No bet.
Bs-Sabres – tough one to pick, too many variables. good fast skaters on both sides so hard to see this going under 5. Tiny bet on over with -110 odds
Blackhawks-Flyers – I like the Flyers to win in reg and score more than 2.5. They are one of the top scoring teams and with Toews out and Darling in the Flyers will take advantage of the home ice.
Devils-Preds – Preds in reg. NJ is a terrible road team and Nashville is very good at home. They are banged up but playing against a team in a tailspin who have won 1 out of 9. Devils aren’t turning it around on the road with their backup in net vs one of the top scoring teams who are on a 8-3 tear.
Leafs-Nucks – boring game, Leafs should win but they are so inconsistent it’s tough to back them on the road against another Canadian team. No bet.
Wings-Pens – Just for fun I have microscopic bets on Pens to win first period and to win puckline.
Jets-Blues – no bets on this game but Blues should win right? On the other hand, Jets have beaten Kings, Hawks and Preds so they can rise to the occasion.
Cats-Sens – ZZZzzzzz
CBJ-Yotes – tough game to tip because both teams have the potential to win. It’s not a sure thing for CBJ with Smith back and Yotes usually keep things tight at home. The under could be a play but the odds suck. I’ll pass.
Stars-Avs – The fans are going to see a lot of scoring today. At even money, the over is looking really good and I’ll take it.
Ducks-Oilers – I’m getting Ducks +110 and I like it.
GLTA and remember I suck as a handicapper
Are you f*cking kidding me? The Preds allow 3 goals in 3rd and then lose in OT? It’s like they were trying to lose.
3 goals on 4 shots to win with the 1st shot in OT. still shocked by the comeback.
It was a really weird one as while they looked a bit complacent it wasn’t like the Devils were throwing everything at them, caution to the wind etc. Everything just slipped in. Oh well that’s hockey sometimes.
Good luck today SDB. Always enjoy your input win or lose. I DO have to say though … If you think the Leafs/Nucks game is going to be boring, you haven’t been following this matchup.
Okay …. Maybe a little boring
Nice night for me yesterday as Sharks/Under parlay came in nicely for me. I had a single bet on the Wild and came pretty close to making a Friday night sweep.
Lots of action today, almost too much.
I took PHIL on the ML as they’ve dominated at home vs BHawks and Darling in at the net. Bet is looking good so far as Flyers up 3-1 as I write this.
Dal/Col OVER –Lehtonen is manning the pipes for Stars and Varly for the Avs. The lamps are going to be lighting up so much someone may have to make a run to the hardware store for light bulbs.
Tor/Vanc OVER — Maple Leafs should break out after getting shut out at Calgary the other night. You have Miller in the net conformed for Canucks, and he allowed 6 last time he faced Toronto. Is there a proper for going over 5 goals after two periods? If there were such bet, Inwoukd make it.
ANAHEIM ML — The Ducks have been playing much better of late, especially defensively and Gibson in net. Edmonton for some reason just plays poorly at home. What’s giving me the push to take ANAHEIM is that they OWN the Oilers. Check this out: ANAHEIM 9-0-1 L10 vs Edmonton, including 5-0 in Alberta. Gimme the Ducks 4-2. Quack quack!
Florida ML — Luongo is confirmed starter and Ottawa is going with Condon. Reading the quotes by Oanthers players suggest that they’re over Gallant’s firing and that they’re professionals and will play hard. Recent history suggests that the Panthers have played well against the Sens, going 4-1 in their L5. I think the Cats from South Beach pull off a 3-2 win. Meeeeooooowww!
Man its so hard to make money:(
I like capitols and o5.5 and ducks ML
Tonight picks,
Panthers win %100
Penguins win %70
Blues win %80
Capitals win %65
Leafs win %90
Jackets win %100
Stars win %100
Ducks win %100
Good luck everyone!
To make up for that brutal Nashville collapse what do you guys think of this
Pens in regulation, OVER Leafs/Van, OVER Stars/Avs, Ducks ML?
Might switch out Ducks ML for Sens ML. Don’t know which I trust more
Nice win yesterday when Flames/Wild and Sharks/Habs both stayed under.
I had Preds in reg. this night but they gave away a 4-1 lead in the 3rd and Devils won with 4-5 in OT. Pretty brutal loss there.
Tonight 3 picks for me; Canucks-Leafs and Avalanche-Stars both O5.5, just as G&S.
Also adding Lightning-Caps O5. Both teams conceiding a lot lately, and I’m not fully convinced in Caps win. So O5 is my pick.
GL
2016-12-03
Lion project 2/15 (NHL)
First one of the night won, close game but worked out in the end (Rangers Reg). Moving on to the second pick, i was about to pick another Reg pick on the blues but did not feel confident enough, then checked penguins, odds just horrible… Seems like were ending up with washington, they’ve won against Tampa bay in the last 5 meetings aswell as tampa bay on a 4 losing streak atm, I think its a perfect setup for Capitals to get revenge on another team after the quite interesting loss to Islanders, which Penguins lost to the day before that aswell! 🙂
Washington Capitals ML (1.83)
Progress: 10kr>18.33kr>33.60kr?
NBA PICK COMMING SOON, Stay tuned! (Will update this post with it ) =)
“EDIT: Also starting a 160 kr challenge = 17,41$, 16.33€, 13.67£
This will include combos aswell as singles, with football, NHL and NBA, but mainly football! This will go under the name of “betfair” in the spreadsheet, just to make it easier to see which is doing greater and which one you want to follow, example here”: https://gyazo.com/022fa14030ff3fe94cccbb2bff13530a
SPREADSHEET (15 bet challenges, and 160kr challenge) = http://www.betdog.eu/profile/Lawellys_Predictions
I have one BBB for tonight (big balls bet)
Red Wings handicap -1.5 @ 6.20
Crazy good odds and the Pens are being overvalued here by a ton. In their last 4 games the Pens have a negative GF/GA per 60 minutes ratio overall, and Fleury is in net, he’s been anything but confident this year. Also they’ve been winning and losing back and forth, and they won their last game, so maybe that trend continues.
Detroit actually have a positive GF/GA in their last 4 games, and despite not being able to score more than 2 goals per game on average, they also don’t let up more than 1.75 goals per game. This is the exact opposite of the Pens – who manage to score more than 3 goals but also let up almost 4.
Rookie Coreau plays his first NHL game and he must be pumped up. He’s huge and if on his game can be a wall out there.
GL !
Yeah I really thought Murray was in net – from what I read earlier he was going to be and forgot to add in the caveat to bet only if he was in the net. Your bets looking nice although can’t count Pens out. Have to wonder too if the team are going to try and play that much harder due to Coreau.
Yeah, it looked good after 2 periods on the scoreboard but honestly didn’t feel too confident at that point. Just something about those Red Wings.
Oh well, was fun to give it a shot.