Written by Graeme on Wednesday, December 14th, 2016
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What an insane night of hockey that was.
We had the LA Kings up 2-0 on the road in Buffalo, only to lose 6-3 to the Sabres who had an amazing 2nd half comeback. Yet that wasn’t even close to the best comeback of the night.
No – that award is saved for the Carolina Hurricanes who were down 5-2 and managed to come back to win 8 freaking 6. Who would have thought Hurricanes vs Canucks would have been such an amazing game. Me and Scott have a running joke about the Canes as I rate them highly while he doesn’t rate them at all. The first thing I said yesterday was “Canes will probably emulate the Penguins and put 7 past the Canucks” as a joke. I can’t believe that actually happened.
The Predators also had their own comeback against the Blues in spectacular fashion. Nice to see them being the ones coming back for once. The Stars blew away the Ducks 6-2 as their offense came to life, and the Blackhawks scraped the win over the Rangers.
Just a crazy night of hockey.
We move onto Wednesday, December 14th with just 4 games on the board. We initially had Flyers but talked ourselves out of it. Other than that Habs game Pickard has been good this season and will have a lot to prove tonight.
Flames vs Lightning Betting Tips:
I’m a bit concerned that neither team has played since Saturday. Long breaks seem to be a bad thing this season – seen so many teams come back and get blown out. The break might revitalize the Lightning and hurt the momentum of the Flames – it’s hard to figure out. However we’re going to take Over 5 goals incl OT/SO. Flames are good at scoring at home but also concede the goals, and Tampa REALLY want this win so they’re going to be pushing as hard as they can. Tampa focused on their defense against the Caps & Canes but were exposed by the Canucks and Penguins. I’m a bit concerned that both teams will come out slow and careful – but I’m backing the urgency to come in as soon as a goal is scored and for this one to go over.
Canada: 1.74 Odds at Sports Interaction + $20 Free Bet.
USA: Odds at GT Bets..
Everyone Else: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
Penguins vs Bruins Betting Tips:
The Bruins are a team that always raise their game against the Penguins. They’re coming off that hard fought confidence boosting win aganst the Habs.
The Penguins are on a fantastic run at the moment but they’ve still got goaltending issues and are going up against Rask. I think this will be a tricky matchup for the Penguins and that the Bruins may pull off the upset.
Bruins to win incl OT/SO if Rask in net
Canada: 2.50 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: +135 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 2.50 Odds at 888 Sports.
Mathematical/Experimental Betting Systems:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. Previous Records: 1st Period System 30-36 (+15.99u), OHL 28-15 (+17.15u)
1st Period System (10-28, -6.75u): Calgary Flames 3.00.
OHL Betting Tips(11-11, -0.83u): Saginaw Spirit to win in regulation at 2.10 odds.
WHL Betting Tips(18-16, -0.97u): Moose Jaw Warriors/Prince Albert Raiders Over 7.5 goals.
AHL Betting Tips(16-7, +8.21u): Value pick of Utica Coments in regulation at 2.50 odds. Wiles-Barre/Scranton Penguins in regulation at 2.10 odds.
1st Period Betting:
Canadians: Sports Interaction, Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv & 888 Sports.
Americans: BetOnline. or Bovada.
Everyone Else: Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv or 888 Sports.
OHL, WHL & AHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
3-2 with my picks last night, but I hit all my big bets and only missed some smaller ones so it was a pretty good night! Interesting trends associated with tonight’s games.
Flyers are better than the Avs, but are just 1-7 their last 8 games in Colorado.
I’d say the Pens are better than the Bruins, but the Bruins are 5-1 their last 6 games in Pittsburgh.
Flames are hot right now and Bolts have been slumping, but the Bolts are 6-2 their last 8 games in Calgary.
The head-to-head statistics are always tricky in my opinion, so I would not pick based on that. I mean, the teams change year by year, let alone 3-4-5 years, if they don’t play that often.
It is kind of obvious that today those 3 picks have a really great chance. The h2h is just something where you can say: okay seems like it is confirmed.
Sure, I was just saying, because I see that everywhere, but I don’t think it’s necessary to mention it. Nothing against BlueLineBets.
No offense taken. I’d never make a wager strictly on head to head, and I generally agree with your sentiment. When those stats go back years, you are taking about completely different teams. Just thought it was interesting all three of those games had H2H stats like that.
Exactly, the h2h stats are interesting, and that is all the porpuse they have.
Do you have anything figured out for tonight already? I am having a hard time. I have the Pens ml and Colorado ml in my mind, but I can list pros and cons all day about both of them. Maybe it’s time to sit out the night. The other two, I am definitely not even touching.
It is a tough night. I kind of like the Under in the Sharks/Sens game, but it’s just a lean. Personally I don’t think I want to play the Pens game. Boston always gets up to play the Pens but I don’t know if I want to bet against their offense right now.
If it can help you: With my program you have a 50% confidence that Bruins win will happen. ;))
That game is Pens ml or no bet for me.
Have you seen Pens vs Wilds? No trust in this, personally absolutely not. But it is okay, maybe their trend will continue. But I’m more confident that Pens will lose a game again and my program tells me that this feeling has a 50% win chance. That’s all! 😉
The 6-2 match? I did not see that one, but I have seen some from the latest winning streak and I just would not bet against them right now. But the 1.60 ml is just a bit short for my taste against Rask and the Bruins.
2-4! But yes you don’t have to bet, but I have to. :)) I really like this pick. At all we need some luck or at least no bad luck to be successful.
We will see how it goes, I am going with my feelings, as usual. But the fact that You are against it, makes me even less certain about the play.
We can never say anything in betting with 100% certainty, what we can say though, is that teams always perform well against certain teams regardless of form, or skill, or individual players, it’s a stigma in sports, there is always that one team you struggle against, take for example yesterday’s games, LA Kings have been pretty good this year, better than the sabres, but sabres before that game won 11 out of 12 games at home vs the Kings, extended that to 12 out of 13 games yesterday, I think it’s safe to go with Bruins, Avs and Bolts here in today’s picks based on the statistics.
I think you have a nice idea here, but it is not like when teams are better in a season. It depends a lot on active players. And also not on overall performances.
I’m not sure I agree. The Sabres have had a few quality wins this year and 1/3rd of the games they have lost have been in overtime, meaning they have been competing hard (even through injuries) in most of the games they have been in. Conversely, the Kings are a .500 club who have lost most of their games in regulation (all but 2). Yes, the trend continued yesterday, but I’m not sure you can just attribute it to the Kings traditionally struggling against Buffalo. The h2h trends are something to consider, but that is because they are contrary to who the stats are saying should win.
Definitely not, nothing is certain in betting regardless, I do think the H2H stats are something to look at too though, recent form is probably the biggest factor and one cannot deny the pens have been playing than the Bruins, the flyers the avs and the flames the bolts overall, just seems like a good place for each of the teams you stated to pick up wins and recoup from their bad form, Bruins already did that against the Canadiens I suppose, but as to whether or not the avs and the bolts can do that tonight is another question entirely.
Agreed. Should make for some fun games to watch tonight!
Another factor for the Bruins – Pens game at least for me is that the Bruins have also shown to be more potent in away games and their defence did look pretty solid against the Canadiens last night, Rask also looked extremely good, that could be the deciding factor in shutting down the Pens offence and punishing their mistakes on the counter.
Why don’t you post your picks on here?
All of my picks get posted on the site in my twitter profile (@BlueLineBets). And that site tracks my wins and losses (if you were looking for proof of picks). I like to comment here because I like talking hockey with like-minded individuals.
Think you have to pay on your website for subscription, yes?
Recent forms are pointing towards a Flames win over TB. Around 1,80 odds seems a good bet for me. Thoughts?
A personal bet I’m making is Avs in regulation. I think I just rate the Avs higher than I should. When I was doing the tips today I initially had the Flyers but then talked myself into the Avs more. I think Landeskog gets rolling tonight and Pickard is going to prove himself tonight.
I am probably going with Avs ml, and still thinking about the Pens ml. The Avs-Flyers must be a high scoring game too, because you just can not hold them under three if you are the Avalanche, so you must outscore them. I will wait until the goalies are confirmed, but I do not think this one is going to be the goalies’ night.
Maybe it can improve your decision. My program also says take Colorado, but for me the odd is to low.
Was hat es mit dem Programm auf sich? Selbst entwickelt? 😉
Reden wir hier jetzt deutsch, ja? :)))
Eine künstliche Intelligenz, die über Jahre gelernt hat auf NHL-Spiele zu wetten und jedes Jahr bessere Trefferraten zeigt. 😉
Das lustige daran ist, dass sie durch die Quoten selbst entschieden hat nur auf solche “underdog”-Spiele zu gehen und auf lange Sicht scheint es sich zu lohnen. Aber natürlich nie 100% sicher. Ich muss mir immer anschauen wer verletzt ist, welche Goalies spielen und auch die Quoten im Auge behalten und ihr dann sagen, dass die Wette gut oder aufgrund von Verletzungen nicht gut ist.
Ok. Hört sich nicht uninteressant an 😉 Ich bin im Voraus immer etwas skeptisch gegenüber solchen Programmen, da es leider zu viel Leute gibt die solche Programme meinen erfunden zu haben (diese jedoch schlecht sind). Zum anderen denke ich immer, dass ein menschlicher Verstand besser auf Sport wetten kann als ein Programm etc.
Ja deswegen muss ich mir ja solche Dinge auch anschauen! :))) Alleine kann es auch nicht, wobei ich sagen kann, dass wenn ich das Programm ganz alleine tippen lasse über eine NHL Saison 50% der Tipps auf jeden Fall kommen. Es ist einfach ein Spiel, dass dieses Programm spielt und es wird von Jahr zu Jahr ersichtlich besser. Ich poste hier auch seit dieser Saison bewusst die Tipps und die Gewinn/Verlust-Raten um quasi auch öffentlich zu beweisen, dass es kein Mist ist.
Klar. Wenn son was gut ist, ist es ja auch interessant! 😉 Tippst du nur mit dem Programm? Oder auch Tipps die von dir persönlich kommen? Was sagt das Programm heute? Bruins? Avs?
15.12.16, 01:35 Uhr Pittsburgh Penguins – Boston Bruins Tipp auf Value
15.12.16, 04:05 Uhr Colorado Avalanche – Philadelphia Flyers Tipp auf Value
Das sagt mein Programm um konkret zu sein. Sprich: Aus meiner Sicht sind die Teams gleich gut, nimm die höhere Quote.
Ich tippe fast nur mit dem Programm, wenn ich zu viele Units habe, mache ich auch hier und da eine Spaß-Kombo. Aber bisher war das nicht so prickelnd. Eher ausgeglichen. Die ML Einzelwetten mit höheren Quoten, die ich hier immer poste sind immer von meinem Programm. Persönlich bin ich auch nicht so schlecht, aber doch voller Fehler. :))
Hab die beiden eingepackt 🙂 Avs aber 3-Weg -> Risiko! 😉 Dann werde ich das in Zukunft mal verfolgen. Bislang Plus in der Saison?
Tonight picks,
Project lion 1/15
Lightning win %100
Over/Under Combination
Flyers over 5.5 %100
Sharks over 5.5 %100
Penguins over 5.5 %100
Good luck everyone
Thought about Sens/Sharks OVER too – What are your main reasons here?
http://www.sofascore.com/ottawa-senators-san-jose-sharks/Wybsazb
Please check their last head to head games. All games were +5.5. Its easy to score and concide for sens. This year they like to play more open ?
Great job last night! I wish I followed along.
Thank you mate
Got in on that last night…but was only able to play the Lighting and Flyers…Sweet win…Expecting more tonight
Thanks
Is the “project Lion” basically trying to get 15 “best bets” of the night right in a row ? Or is there something more to it ?
I am trying to make it 15/15 in a row. Each day one of the best game
I think that Over 5,5 in Pengs-Bruins might be a good choice. Especially if Fleury starts. (And even more if Rask doesn’t). What do you think?
Not official yet, but Murray was in the “starters crease” at the Penguins morning skate.
OK, thank you very much
First thoughts:
> Sens/Sharks OVER 5.0
> Maybe Bruins to win (OT/SO) -> IF Rask is in net
> Flames/Lightning OVER 5.0
> Is it time for the Flyers to lose? Maybe Avs in regulation!?
The Flyers are probably due for a loss, BUT the Avs longest winning streak this season is 2 games, and they have only won back-to-back games twice this season, one being the first two games of the season. They have struggle to string even two wins together. Tough one to call.
Rask was the first goalie off the ice in the morning skate so that should mean he will be the starter tonight.
Boston ML ODD 2.5 with 2 units
Btw. Rask and Murray in the nets. 😉
If they will manage to win then probably its going to be -5.5 ☺ it means I ll be wrong with my over 5.5 prediction. Good luck mate!
Yes you are absolutely right. I think the same. GL to you, too. But mostly I like your Lightning pick. ;)) Think this will happen.
Hi everybody. Yesterday I went 6+ 2- and 2=. Today ideas:
Sens – Sharks : Sharks / draw – return bet /
Pinguins – Bruins Over5 / Boston to win
Calgary – Tampa Bay Calgary / draw – return bet /
Avs – Flyers Flyers to win
Maybe a crazy choises, but it is just my thoughts.
Draw – return bet : Idk how you call this, we got an advantage(0) bet. It means if regulation time ends with draw – it is return.
“Draw no bet” (in football at least in Europe)
Thanks! Heard this name once.
Sharks, Bruins, Flames and Avalanche.
There are so many people who like the Avalanche tonight! I just don’t get it? They have one of the worst home offenses and home defenses in the league and the Flyers are really hot right now. I know they have won 9 in a row and they should lose one soon but it seems like more people are just betting against the Flyers than with the Avalanche.
Yeah the public are betting the Avs pretty strongly. I felt it was worth a play but it wasn’t enough to fully tip it with the odds. I got 2.30 but for it to be a tip I’d have to bet it at 2.50 at least I think. And looks like it’s dropped to 2.10.
Would you take Over 5.5 for TB/CGY as the line is now at 2.20?
No. I’m not fully confident in the Over 5 part of taking it was the general safety net of 5. Flames could come out with Johnson still hot and their D rested and play it tight, Tampa could go back to attempting to nullify the game etc.
Anyone have any thoughts on Ottawa ML at 2.05 at home against a Sharks team that played last night?
Ottawa have a pretty good record against the Sharks recently, only thing I’m wary about is Condon, he’s not a bad goalie by any means, but he still isn’t reliable against teams that have the ability to score as much as the Sharks.
The Penguins at -165 american odds, makes absolutely no sense. Forget stats etc. The Bruins are being treated as if they are basement dwellers…. +152 american odds on the Bruins is a bet that no one should pass up, even if it’s a small bet.
This is one of those games where the books try to lure people into the Penguins, due to their slaughter of the Coyotes the other night.
A bookmaker’s goal is to get equal action on both sides. When there is unequal action, they drop and raise prices to “lure” bettors to the side they want to prop up. Even if there was a conspiracy – I would suggest the books were trying to suck in greedy bettors with the fat Bruins line. Beyond that, there is no shame banking a $60.61 profit backing a team that is 12-2-1 at home and rolling.
No conspiracy, it takes skill to read money line odds and realize which teams are not worth the money despite what the stats say, especially in this sport. The books wanted everyone to bet the Penguins. And we all witnessed why, they almost lost at a -160 money line price. Have to be a sucker to pay that.
I’m sure all Penguin backers were shaking in OT due to the money they would have lost due to the odds. I took the Bruins and they played as I expected. As did the Penguins. Take me back a few hours and I would still gladly back the Bruins at +145 (taking the Bruins was the right bet)
….and you would still have a losing ticket because you got sucked into the fat line on the Bruins. I am happy to be up $60 and not down $100 – the final score is all that matters when betting slips are graded.
^^^^Perfect example of investing vs gambling
I completely get what you’re saying, but at the same time from my experience studying sports psychology in the NHL for about 7 years now, if you take the ML against a team that’s as hot as the Pens are now, you’re going to lose that bet 9/10 (in OT). When it’s a one shot game, the team that’s got those hot sticks all over the lineup will win it against a team that’s forcing it a bit, except for maybe a bad bounce (and those tend to avoid you when you’re hot).
I looked at the Bruins last night and knew they were going to play well, saw the odds and thought to myself this is very tempting. But then i realized i have lost that same bet a million times before. I used to think it was still a good bet to make because of the good value vs. how close the game was on the ice, but when you lose it 9/10 eventually you learn it’s not a good bet to make.
In my opinion if you’re banking on a super hot team losing, it’s better just to for a regulation win. Because usually when those hot streaks end, it’s because they get complacent and don’t show up – and when that happens you lose, the NHL is that tight.
But if we’re talking about investment, OT was the best play in this particular game, and it made a lot of sense psychology-wise. Im kicking myself a bit for not going for it, but i wasn’t sure if the Pens offense was going to squeeze out a late game winning goal or something along those lines. In any case, even if that game didn’t go to OT and the Pens managed to score late, or the Bruins missed on glorious chances to tie the game 3-3, OT would’ve still been the best play value considered, in my opinion of course.
After a very poor week, tonight I am trying to turn this boat around. Today I am going with:
Bruins ML
Sens ML
Bolts ML
Flyers in reg
Good luck guys!
Senators ML and Over 5
Bolts-Flames OT
Flyers in reg
The Sens game should be an Ottawa win according to the stats, I just don’t trust Condon.
Lions Project 4/15 Flames win REG! @2.30
2016-12-15
Hi guys, skipped posting yesterday as i did not bet myself, even tho i looked into all the matches and if i were to bet i wouldve got all right except 2 (Hawks and Arizona) But oh well, sometimes we just miss out on the good stuffs! Going to remind you with this statement once more for the spreadsheet aswell =) A HUGE win in the football today, 10 kr > 806 kr… 8/8 combo win “Taken a different look into my system and i am now adding a 1k challenge in the spreadsheet, which will go under the name of “Bookmaker = Betsson” Even tho im betting on Bet365, but its just to make a difference between the challenges, Bookmaker = bet365 is for the 15 bets in a row challenges… And betsson for the 1k challenge 🙂 Just wanted another way to add all my bets simply and easly so thats how im doing it to provide more bets for everyone! =)” (2016-12-11)
Moving onto tonights 15 bets in a row challenges!
Lion project 1/15 (NHL)
Pick: Calgary flames (1.76)
Progress: 10kr>17.69kr?
Lion project 1/15 (NBA)
PICK: Houston Rockets -13.5 (1.90)
Progress 10kr>19kr
SPREADSHEET (15 bet challenges ) = http://www.betdog.eu/profile/Lawellys_Predictions
GOOD LUCK TONIGHT EVERYONE! =)
My picks for today:
Anaheim
Chicago
Toronto
St. Louis
Minnesota (hard match)
NY Rangers
—————
Toronto-Arizona over 5.5 100%
any thoughts, comments ?
I think Nashville might beat Minnesota as the Predators have a very good home record and the Wild have not been great on the road. Although Minnesota has probably the better team overall and if Dubnyk is playing he is tough to beat so I’m going to stay away.
Other than that I agree with all your picks, but I’m only going to place a small bet on the Ducks as they have been pretty inconsistent on the road this year.
Bos-Ana over 5 might be better.Stl in reg,Wild,Nyr and nyr over 2.5g,chicago over 2.5g or over 5.I am going like this today.
What do you think about the Hawks game?
Personally i would take Chicago ML but i will lay you some stats to make your decision.
Chicago 5-1 last 6 on 1 days rest. Chicago 2-5 last 7 in new york but 7-2 past 9 meets overall. 5-1 last 6 after allowing 2 or less goals in their previous game.
Halak is 7-1-3 with a .930 sv% and a 2.06 GAA in his career vs. Chicago. NYI 3-8 last 11 after scoring 2 or less in their previous game. 2-6 last 8 when opponent scores 2 or less in their previous game. Islanders 26-11 last 37 vs. West. 11-3 last 14 vs. Central.
For Chicago Under is 12-4-8 last 24 on road. Under is 11-2-5 last 18 playing on 1 days rest.
For Islanders Under is 4-0-3 last 7 when opponent scores 2 or less in their previous game. Under is 4-0 last 4 Thursdays.
Under is 7-0 in their past 7 meetings.
Thanks mate. Luckily I went with Hawks in reg. – great comeback and some impressive PP goals – omg I liked the goal by Anisimov 🙂
Not sure about that over in the Yotes/Leafs game. The perception is the Leafs score a lot, especially at home, but much of that was at the beginning of the season. Over the last two weeks both of these teams are averaging less than 2 goals/game. I lean towards the Under.
lion who are you picking tonight ?? lol