Written by Graeme on Saturday, February 18th, 2017
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The betting against teams coming off a bye week trend continues to succeed, as the Avalanche beat the Carolina Hurricanes last night.
It’s such a funny one as on one side the sample size is tiny – but on the flip side, we’ve now got the two worst teams in the NHL by far winning games based on it. Both the Coyotes and Avalanche didn’t just win – but they won on the road against teams who would usually just cream them.
I wouldn’t advise betting purely on it however – you’ve got to find additional evidence to back it up. That’s why yesterday I said I was betting on the Avs but I couldn’t tip them – it was hard to find any metrics where I could advise it.
I’d also be sure to take it into consideration when making bets and I’d advise making a small bet on each one because I love trends. It could all go to crap but you just never know how it’ll work out. What’s nice is that a lot of the time it’s set up so that the bye week team are heavy favourites so it gives us a great price such as the Avs last night.
Tonight for example I’d advise half unit bets on the following teams purely based on the trend:
– Edmonton Oilers. 2.30 odds.
– Winnipeg Jets. 2.65 odds.
– Minnesota Wild. 1.68 odds.
– Dallas Stars. 1.90 odds.
– Detroit Red Wings. No odd syet.
I’m always a big fan of betting on trends. It’s just risky when there’s not a lot of statistical data.
Blues vs Sabres Betting Tips:
The Blues have a great run going since Yeo took over and I see no reason it can’t continue here. To their credit the Sabres have two wins in a row as well going into this one. However the Blues have had a couple of tough games during their run and kept it going, and I’m happy riding the Blues until proven otherwise.
Blues to win incl OT/SO.
Wild vs Predators Betting Tips:
Predators obviously coming off the bye week but on top of that the Minnesota Wild are just too damn good. Even when they rested Dubnyk the other night they held the Stars at bay 3-1. Nashville tend to stutter on the road and I’m happy to take Minnesota Wild to win incl OT/SO.
Lightning vs Stars Betting Tips:
Lightning coming off the bye week, Stars heading into it so we expect a big performance from Dallas. They’ve lost their last 3 on the road but they’re a lot better at home lately where they’re competitive even though they have no goaltending at all.
I’m a bit worried Tampa won’t be able to get things going so I was considering the Stars initially. However with the weak goaltending from the Stars and Tampas decent goalscoring on the road I’ll take Over 5.5 Goals.
OHL / WHL / AHL Betting Tips:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. Previous Records: OHL 15/16 28-15 (+17.15u)
OHL Betting Tips(20-17, +1.82u): Hamilton Bulldogs to win in regulation at 1.80 odds.
AHL Betting Tips(29-17, +11.80u): System likes Toronto Marlies, Grand Rapids Griffins and San Diego Gulls but no odds yet so not sure if they’re plays or not. If you’re following you should know what the odds we bet at are. Has to be at least 1.65 and regulation is good for all but Marlies.
OHL, WHL & AHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
Good job on AHL picks yetday boys ……….
I have an insane trend of watching low scoring games, so based on that, I am going with the U5 for the Caps game for sure. The Caps should have a slower night soon, and the Red Wings are due a win. The Caps also had a long break. I can see the Red Wings winning, but they can do it in a high scoring game in my opinion, so they’ll have to limit the Caps’ chances.
I will continue to ride the Blues. I’ve had some success with high paying handicaps, and I think I’ll play the -1.5 there.
Early play..
MTL/WPG Under 5.5
Best of luck!
I’m adding your pick to a parlay with Wild in reg.
Good luck Henry!
Thanks man! I also have Minn in reg today. Let’s cash!
Why the under? Last three matchups have gone over and wpg has gone over 9 of their last 10…
I don’t hate it. Price has been tanking ever since he was pulled. Very good chance we see the return of the elite one tonight.
I expected Montreal — new coach and all — to come out slowly and sluggishly. With the exception of a couple teams (Pitt, AZ, Tor), clubs are coming out very stale after 5 days of zero practice and games. Now you have a new coach who wants to implement new strategies and he can’t because they cannot practice. How is a team supposed to just jump on the ice and light it up? Won’t happen.
1st par stl/buff over, caps/wings under,mont -1.5…2nd par mont ML, mont/jets under going big here wish me luck!! 3rd par stl ML, mont/jets under, minn ML, dall -1.5.. for now lets see how this goes gl all!!!
Hello Steve. I am pretty new to NHL, can you tell me what mont ML stands for ?
Moneyline. So you are betting for the match winner, including overtime and shootouts.
that montreal will win the game= mont ML
looks like 0-3 too start 🙁
Teams heading to the bye are 15-5, so Stars look favorable in this spot. TB coming off their bye.
0-1 last night
Tonights picks
STL in reg
Oilers ML
Caps in reg (small win) maybe under 5.5
Thoughts?
GLTA.
Dallas TT O 2.5
NYIslanders ML
Edm ML
Edm TT O 2.5
MTL/ WPG Under
Minn in Reg
Minn TT O 2.5
LA/ FL O 5
No underdog today.
Blues, Habs, Blackhawks and Sharks.
Early picks,
Sabres win %90 listed.
Later picks,
Hawks win %80
Devils win %90 listed.
Leafs win %90
Sharks win %100
Stars win %100 listed.
Predators win %90 listed.
Kings win %100 listed.
Canuks win %80 listed.
+ and – picks
Canadiens -5.5 listed
Hawks -5.5 listed
Devils -5.5 listed
Leafs -5.5
Sharks +7.5 listed
Good luck guys
Any ideas will help on if any games will go to OT or SO tonight
I do not play regulation time. I advise you do not as well.
Bye week glitch Jets ML
Blues ML
Isles ML
Montreal wins today! players tend to turn around when coach is changed, wanna prove themselves and so on.
Best bet of the day!
That’s true, but coming off the bye week has to be a factor. Interesting mix of factors in this game.
I don’t like Bolts-Stars over today. Bolts are coming off bye week and it’s likely they will be slow starting on offence. On the other side of the ice their D is pretty solid and in the past four games no one has scored more than 2x on them. Leaky goalies so maybe I’m wrong, just saying it’s not an obvious play.
I think about OVER 5.0 in Kings/Panthers…
@betnhlca:disqus
Plays Today
Arizona Coyotes (ML) – The Coyotes have no serious injuries anymore and are playing well again with the return of some key players, they beat the sharks away last time they met and have a really good home record against them too
New York Islanders reg – The Devils are terrible at home this season and not doing so well overall, where as the Islanders have been playing better, aside from that 7-1 loss to the leafs, I give them the edge here either way
Was thinking about flames reg/kings ML and maybe Toronto reg too despite their poor record against the sens at home, they are 6-0 on 2 days rest and they’ve had 2 days rest, so that plays into their favor this game too.
Not too sure about the the Kings pick as I really like the way the panthers are playing at the moment with that 4th line doing especially well.
Tonights NHL preds!
CHI Blackhawks FT (2.20)
LA Kings FT (2.05)
Rest of my picks: https://www.facebook.com/LawellyPreds/
Oilers
Islanders
Leafs
Sharks
Stars
Wild
Kings
Flames-Canucks OT
GL
What’s your thoughts on the sharks vs coyotes game? coyotes have been playing a lot better recently with some injured players coming back and sharks have lost 4 out of last 5 games in Arizona.
Well i guess too late to answer now, but my thoughts process was that you don’t see the Sharks in the exact situation as you mentioned often. Most of the time when they face them they’re playing well which leads to overlooking the Yotes and that’s why their meetings are usually close. Tonight they felt like they really wanted this win to right the ship a bit and the differences of the two teams really show.
Most of the time games like these are really good spots to go for the better team – when the underdog is playing better hockey the tables turn a bit and the better team don’t have a reason to feel too good.
Any ideas on games going to OT or SO tonight
Hello Greame & Scott. Do you have tips for todays late games?
Rangers-Capitals, Penguins-Red Wings & Senators-Jets? Even maybe some AHL, OHL or WHL?
Thanks