Written by Graeme on Wednesday, December 13th, 2017
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A lot of one sided results and quite a few surprises last night in the NHL.
A motivated Blue Jackets team will be feeling Torts wrath again after the Oilers went to town on them.
This was a surprise as the Oilers have never really showed fire like that this season yet – to bounce back from a low scoring night with a performance like that. It might give them some renewed confidence.
The hard working New Jersey Devils got a big victory over the Kings to stop their winning streak.
Fleury returned for the Knights but the Hurricanes are a good team even if their overall results don’t showcase that and they pulled off the win last night in a shootout.
Quieter night tonight with 4 games on the board and the biggest streaking team on the winning side is the Bruins at 2.
Bruins vs Red Wings Betting Tips:
Fair warning here – there’s nights with only a few games where we don’t really like much and then we end up picking something where we’re not sure if we actually like it that much OR we’re doing it just to have at least one tip.
This is one of those where I’m a bit concerned about that. However it’s hard not to back the Bruins to win when you look into it all. Current performances of both teams, Rasks form, historical data, all the current metrics – I think we’ve got to go with Bruins here. Corsi is a bit tight but that’s the only thing.
I’ve said it here many times though – don’t just blindly trust us. Read other things such as other websites, our comments – look at stats and so on. If we were doing 0.5/1/2 unit betting(which we hopefully will be soon) I’d advise this as a 0.5 unit bet.
Bruins to win incl OT/SO
Canada: 1.70 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -140 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 1.70 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2017/12/13 10:52:18 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Other Game Thoughts:
We’ve been strong backers of over in the Islanders games but there’s a big talk about the goalies in the media leading up to this one. Enough hype surrounding them it’s put me off. Based on their home record, the Islanders over 2.5 team total sounds good but I’m not seeing a good enough price on it.
I’d love to back the Rangers over the Sens but Ottawa have been on the road longer than Christopher Columbus. They’re at home for the next 3 games (Rangers, Habs & Wild) and you just know they’re going to do some damage to at least one of those teams.
I’m still refusing to tip Preds games but I’d probably go with the Canucks to end their losing streak tonight. So do with that information what you will.
OHL / WHL / AHL / KHL Betting Tips:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. )
AHL Betting Tips (10-11, -1.53u): Stockton Heat 1.74 incl OT/SO.
OHL, WHL & AHL & KHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
I should have listened to Oliver. He cautioned me about the Canes ability to keep games tight, but I blew past the “Slow Curve Ahead” sign. I would make the same bet again on the Knights, but not multiple units. There will be those days–mistakes and bad luck–when your bankroll takes a hit, but you have to put those things behind you and move on. Discipline and due diligence are keys to this game. For today…
I agree with Graeme and Scott on Bs. I’m taking them to win ML. They are simply the better team here and the match up favors them. Their goal differential is much better than the Red Wings and they are coming off a great stretch. On the other hand, the Red Wings are having a brutal time and aside from one fluke win when the Jets did not show up they’ve been losers. With a steamrolling Bs coming to town this Original Six matchup is going our way. -140 2u, +110 regulation 1u
Star-Isles Over -110 1u & Isles ML -125 1u – Two of the league’s most explosive offensive teams meet tonight. They both score a lot of goals and give up a lot of goals. Bishop has a 3.55 GAA on the road so if you want to pick a side I would go with Isles who also have a great home record 9-3. Isles are 4-1 in a home game where where the total is 6 or more. Finally, Seguin is a well-known partier and I guarantee he was out late last night getting some groupie action. Chances are good he wasn’t alone.
Rangers ML -115 1u – This is a bit of a toss up but I’m going with the Blue Shirts for the following reasons:
1. They are coming off a bad loss against the Stars when it looked like they just woke up from a nap. They’ll be sharper tonight and ready to take it to the Sens. Except for a dismal beginning to the season and one B2b loss they have always followed up a loss with a win.
2. This is less about NYR winning than Sens losing: They are 3-10 at home and 0-5 in last 5 games. Sens are 0-6 after playing 3 consecutive road games
3. Lundqvist is a better goalie than Anderson
Staying away from twilight game, Preds will probably win but I won’t bet them with your money.
GLTA SDB
Agree with stars over. Will be goalfest
I went with the money line, and also placed too much on the Knights. I was worried that the canes could finally pick up a win, but thats sometimes how the cookie crumbles. I will post my picks shortly.
Terrible night last night, after Sunday’s NFL action I had my account back up to $3250. Last two nights of the NHL I went down to $2650, then last night down to $1900. If Vegas had just won (had them in two parlays both reg and ML with the Caps) I would have gotten back up to $2700 and broke even last night. Turned the game off once it went to a shootout and was sickened when I saw the Canes had won. Of course the one time I trust Vegas, whose been great at home all year…they lose.
Rough night man, sometimes hockey doesn’t make sense. Vegas win on the road to the Preds but lose at home to the Canes. Let’s get you back up tonight 😉
Very true man, I hate the NHL in terms of betting, so many fluke bounces and bad teams. Nashville for example always seems to get scored on late to blow a regulation play. I wrote up my two picks above. Let me know what you think!
Same thing happened to me. Feels like when Jets shat the bed vs Red Wings
NYR, ML- The Rangers under Vigneault have traditionally been a strong road team and are off a disappointing home loss to the Stars which should mean they come into this game focused and don’t take the Sens lightly. The Rangers also have a lot more team speed and should expose the Senator defensive group.
NYI ML- The Islanders are something like 24-5-2 against Western Conference teams at Barclay’s and have won a large amount of those games by multiple goals. Lehtonen is also in who we all know is often shaky. You look at this Stars team and quickly see they are top heavy who don’t have the depth to match the explosive Islanders offense. You also factor in the fact that Seguin had a couple of nights in New York after a win, chances are high he might not be the most game ready he’s ever been lol.
I am thinking I will parlay these two together. After a couple of awful nights I really need this to hit. Thoughts?
Their PLs look good too ???
watch the risk guys
Agreed- I don’t even play PL. Would you like more risk with that? Lol
I rarely play PL and even then low units and hedge with ML. The Preds PL might be a fun play.
Your reasoning is sound and I too have had a tough week. It’s difficult to be disciplined at these times, but I don’t disagree with anything you say. I do favor the over in the Stars-Isles game a little more than taking Isles side, but either way seems solid to me.
I’m not falling into a trap with the Rangers am I? I’m parlaying the two so I need both to hit, have to have a good night to get this terrible taste out of my mouth
I hear ya, feeling the same way. Personally, and I think Oliver agrees, the NYRs are the sharpest bet on the board tonight for all the reasons I stated on my daily post.
I’m trusting myself and taking the two New York teams. Better hit man, so frustrated with the NHL
Can’t disagree with NYR. However with Dallas suddenly turning up the heat on the road I’ll avoid NYI here. This could go either way, especially with Islanders defence.
Johansen and Hartnell will play v Canucks tonight. 100% a play now
To WIN: Rangers, Boston
Apart from a lousy start in October, the Rangers have been doing very good with “first” games either at home or on the road, and this one’s on the road. Ottawa is 1-8-1 in it’s last 10 games and is on a game 2 of a back-to-back today. Ottawa is scoring very little and getting scored on regularly. Rangers are scoring enough.
Stars, Rangers and Red Wings.
7/9 yesterday.
Tonight tips,
Red Wings win
Nashville win
Islanders win
Good luck everyone!
Well done yesterday man- very solid day. If you have the time occasionally on your picks I would be interested in seeing your reasons. Seeing opinions of people choosing different teams helps us all make more informed decisions. In this instance I would like to know your thoughts on the Red Wings.
> Isles/Stars Over 5.5
Thanks man I’m always looking forward to your info and picks . I believe you and Oliver are strong in the NHL great cappers
Thx. Appreciate it. Unfortunately the 1st two picks dissappeared, so only Isles team goals was there at one point ^^ Don’t know what happened…
I’m better in german leagues 😛
Can KARI LEHTONEN hold the Islanders unstoppable force tonight ?
I know he’s been playing well recently but I’m felling a stinker from him tonight ?
Islanders-125 not bad right ?
How about PL ?
Over feels better to me than picking a side. Having said that, I think Isles prevail
Preds n nyi over 6 par
Nyr pl stars ml wings over par
stars wings preds all ml par
I am curious why you pick Red Wings over Bruins? Would you please explain your reasons?
You can’t reach Toronto and Tampa in Atlantic. The rest of the group have to jump Boston in stands. Detroit healthy and home. They’ll put up a fight tonight no doubt. No easy walkthrough for Boston here.
Thank you for your response. I’m a Bs fan so I think it will go the other way. Regardless, always great to see an original six matchup
Tonight’s tips:
Islanders – Stars over 5,5 goals
Red Wings – Bruins under 5,5 goals
Good luck!
Looking good so far! I don’t play totals cause I feel its throwing the dice so good calls!
Unfortunately my worries that the Canes would keep it tight panned out. I went with Vegas on the ML and Kings ML and a small play on Buffalo. Buffalo being the pay out of the three choices is fairly annoyingly amusing. I have a good feeling about tonights picks so heres hoping-
Rangers ML/Reg (95%/90%)- To me this a simple pick, Ottawa are not looking even slightly better. A few other struggling teams like the Sabres, Canes and Oilers are starting to at least look better even if the results aren’t always forthcoming, the same cannot be said for the Sens. The Rangers haven’t been great on the road, but they’ve definitely had an uptick in form on the road. Yes 2 wins out of the last 5 isn’t impressive, but they managed a win against the pens and a hardly fought contest against the Caps (even if it ended 4-2) and a thumping of the Canes. In my opinion there are two opponents every team in the NHL should be able to beat- the Sens and Buffalo. Coming off a tight loss against the Stars shouldn’t hurt the confidence of the Rangers, and should instead motivate them to grab a win against an opponent who has been shutout in 3 of their last 5. The Senators have bossed the Rangers at home, and that should have the effect of the Rangers not taking this game too lightly. This is probably one of my favourite picks of the season- I’ve watch both sides games frequently and the Rangers look like a playoff team whilst the Sens look like an AHL team. The Sens do often take the game to OT at home but that is less true in their recent games, and I think the Rangers run riot tonight in an offensive burst.
Bruins ML/Reg (90%/ 85%)- This Bruins side just shutdown the Islanders keeping them to 1 goal. The Islanders are among the top 3 offensive teams in the league. The Bruins are clicking in all areas, solid defence and goaltending and patient consistent offence. None of the same can be said for the Red Wings. The Red Wings can put together good wins, like their demolition of the Jets but they’re more than capable of complete collapse. I don’t bet against streaking sides and the Bruins are hot. Having won 4 of their last 5 on the road (only losing to the Preds) and 8 of their last 10 I’m not about to bet that they struggle against a Wings side who have managed 2 goals in their last 2 games total.
Preds ML/Reg (90%/85%)- Breaking my no Preds rule again here. I wasn’t going to tip this, but given the Canucks injuries they’re not the same team at the moment. They’re missing players who account for 31% of their total goals this season, and its showing. Boeser cannot win the game by himself. The Preds got beaten at home by the Canucks and thus shouldn’t take this game lightly especially after also being humbled by the Knights. The Central is the most tightly contested division in the NHL and the Preds know they need to jump on weakened teams.
The dogs were howling yesterday, but I believe its a favourites night. Rangers are facing what is the worst team in the NHL in my opinion tonight, and after losing their last game and having a history of losing to the Sens will be losing for a little payback. The Bruins are full of pride and healthy, whilst the Red Wings find their wings against the Jets just to fall back down to earth again. If Detroit couldn’t put more than 1 past Reimer and the Panthers will they manage many more against an inform Raask and Bruins? Preds need the wins to keep up in Central and face an opponent who are badly wounded and humbled them at home- they’ll want revenge and will take it, with the Canucks offence just not being what it has been for most of the season.
Lets get that money boys. I’ve used the force and feel extremely confident today (hopefully my pride doesn’t come before a fall lol).
I agree with every single pick Oliver thanks and the Force is strong with you ??
Bromance!
Update- the Rangers weren’t that pretty last night and do have some bad Corsi % stats. That being said the Senators have been outscored 41-16 in their last 11 games – including a 3-0 defeat to the Rangers. I’ve seen some ‘pros’ tipping the Sens, but really with a team that is this bad it is just guess work as to when they’ll get a win. The Sens are consistently losing and by bad margins- and I’ll play against them until there is good enough reason not to.
Maybe the pros knew something I didn’t!
I can’t believe you’re backing the Preds.
Lol tell me about it. Actually I’m really backing the Preds. They’ve had 4 days off, the Canucks have had 1; Johanssen and Hartnell are probably back tonight and well the Canucks are the most injured they’ve been all season and Preds would like some revenge. We’ve been unlucky with the Preds but at the end of the day they’re a winning team, so something has got to give. Just trust my Jedi mind powers lol
Lol tell me about it. Actually I’m really backing the Preds. They’ve had 4 days off, the Canucks have had 1; Johanssen and Hartnell are probably back tonight and well the Canucks are the most injured they’ve been all season and Preds would like some revenge. We’ve been unlucky with the Preds but at the end of the day they’re a winning team, so something has got to give. Just trust my Jedi mind powers lol
Lol tell me about it. Actually I’m really backing the Preds. They’ve had 4 days off, the Canucks have had 1; Johanssen and Hartnell are probably back tonight and well the Canucks are the most injured they’ve been all season and Preds would like some revenge. We’ve been unlucky with the Preds but at the end of the day they’re a winning team, so something has got to give. Just trust my Jedi mind powers lol
Trust him ?
Loving the faith in me Lol!
It’s not a question of trust, but rather the Preds lack of showing up. However, they have really been on a tear lately so maybe their flakey days are in the past for now. In any case, Nucks are pretty banged up and can’t seem to buy a goal.
And as was the ducks case may have some key players back tonight. I really believe the revenge motivation. Will be there tonight. Of course I may be wrong but this is a spot I’m prepared to risk Preds. If you even look at the Nucks stats lately it’s the worst they’ve been defensively and offensively all season.
Lol tell me about it. Actually I’m really backing the Preds. They’ve had 4 days off, the Canucks have had 1; Johanssen and Hartnell are probably back tonight and well the Canucks are the most injured they’ve been all season and Preds would like some revenge. We’ve been unlucky with the Preds but at the end of the day they’re a winning team, so something has got to give. It’s one of those picks that looks like it’s hiding in plain sight. Just trust my Jedi mind powers lol
Lol tell me about it. Actually I’m really backing the Preds. They’ve had 4 days off, the Canucks have had 1; Johanssen and Hartnell are probably back tonight and well the Canucks are the most injured they’ve been all season and Preds would like some revenge. We’ve been unlucky with the Preds but at the end of the day they’re a winning team, so something has got to give. It’s one of those picks that looks like it’s hiding in plain sight. Just trust my Jedi mind powers lol
I’ll tail ya on the Preds, but not much. 1/2u on PL because Nucks can’t score and have been giving up a ton of goals and 1u for regulation. ML is -150 so it’s not worth it.
I’m taking reg.
Thanks Oliver! I took a hit yesterday and I backed you on the Preds! My only action today! Wished I would have put more down but it is what it is. Thanks again for all your tips!
No problem glad to have helped. It was one of those moments as I felt with the Jets the other day, where it is more profitable occasionally to double down on your favourite as opposed to choosing place a wide range of bets. Sometimes it can hit you hard other times really give you a nice payout- trick is to know when it’s best to do it. Hindsight is 20/20 after all.
Lol tell me about it. Actually I’m really backing the Preds. They’ve had 4 days off, the Canucks have had 1; Johanssen and Hartnell are probably back tonight and well the Canucks are the most injured they’ve been all season and Preds would like some revenge. We’ve been unlucky with the Preds but at the end of the day they’re a winning team, so something has got to give. It’s one of those picks that looks like it’s hiding in plain sight. Just trust my Jedi mind powers lol
What is “winner of the game (2 options)”?
Should be a winner including OT and penalties. According to the bookie’s rules.
Lost too much that month, but have had even more fun.
No personal bets, but probably:
Rangers win, 2 way marker
Predators can win ( draw no bet )
Nice amount of cash on the Oilers and Devils last night.
I’ve been following the Oilers closely, and it feels like after that 8-3 loss to the Blues they’ve turned it up. Basically the team is in a late-season mindset. Since that game they’ve been a very strong bounce back team (7-5 vs CGY, 6-2 vs MTL, 7-2 vs CBJ). In every one of those games they had a 4 goal lead. And i think big part of that is just the desperation level which catches teams off guard. However they’ve had trouble stringing 2 wins together. It takes a toll on you mentally to play these bounce back games where you lay everything on the line and next opponent takes notice. So at least for the next little while, the Oilers can continue coming up with these surprising results – or disappointing results if you back them based on 1 game. In any case the Oilers are working hard which they didn’t necessarily do earlier in the season, and because of their position in the standings they tend to have good value, so keep an eye out.
Tonight there’s a lot of guessing going on how much the road teams actually want it. 3/4 home teams are in desperation mode and playing against good teams at home usually spark some fire. Not to mention they’ve all had some home success lately against their opponents which gives them much needed confidence.
Rangers-Sens
Sens went 4/4 at home against the Rangers last season, and we all remember those epic OT comebacks. I think coming home against their playoff opponent (that they lost to in the first meeting in NY) should definitely get them up for this game and make it more than just another game they have to win. That said, the Sens suck right now there’s no way around it and the Rangers confidence level to tie games up is very high. But the game against Dallas wasn’t a very good way to prepare for this one and i think their effort was questionable. My system which tracks the flow of teams tell me no team in Ottawa’s position against a team in the Rangers position have won in regulation in the last 2 years, so if i shut that option out, it leaves me with OT and Rangers. I think OT is the best value (actually got a whopping 47.3% chance) but if the Rangers come out guns blazing pissed off about the Playoff losses, it could be a blowout. So that’s where the guessing game starts.. Mathematically it’s between OT and Rangers ML for me, and im probably leaning towards the Rangers ML just because of the gut feeling i have.
I also like the Islanders to get back at Dallas for that 5-0 loss earlier in the season, but, you can also flip it and say Dallas did beat them 5-0 and they want this game just as much (actually the two teams are exactly in the same position, played well, had a dip in performance, and bounced back last game). So it wouldn’t surprise me if Dallas won this game.
Might come Back with analyzes on the last 2 games, initial feeling is i like Vancouver to play one hell of a game BUT the Preds to bounce back and get their revenge. And Detroit intrigues me as well tonight.
GL
Good to see you 🙂 Thanks for the great analysis; I always learn something from your insights.
Re: NYR – my personal thoughts align with yours. Sens are in disarray and NY has plenty of motivation to win this game. Aside from early season hiccup NYR have only lost 2x row. Indeed I believe they have the best record since Oct 31
I felt the Islanders game could very very easily go the Star’s way- Islanders defence is still very much an issue and their goaltending has been fairly awful. It’s always a question of whether you can see them out scoring their opponents. I see now that it’s 4-0 Dallas…..
Now in terms of the Preds- Johansen and Hartnell are back at the very least and maybe Turris as well. So you’ve got a Preds team who are generally superb, with some key players back against a sliding Canucks side who are going through an injury crisis, doing the worst they’ve done offensively and defensively all season up against them. Preds will be out for revenge and a bounce back here- I don’t see the Canucks doing well. I don’t blame the Canucks I looked at their schedule earlier in the season and put it down as a time to bet against them- it’s just such a hard stretch of games for them right now.
Like AHL Wilkes-Barre Penguins regulation as well.
A. Lee and A. Mantha to score
Good luck everyone!
Dogs have drawn 1st blood
any overs potential for later games ? thoughts ?
Really liking Preds- got two of their major forwards back, had 4 days off and the Canucks are badly injured.
confident ?
Agree with Oliver, it is sports, strongest teams, – nothing is confident in our world
for overs
wrong word….hopeful for overs
Morning everyone,
Quick feedback from 2/2 win last night: Lightning should get it to the Stanley Cup final with ease and Hurricanes should be backed more then often since this OT win yesterday against «undefeatable» Golden Knights.
DAL vs NYI: NYI ml @1.79
Home team is rested and dominating (9-1-2) while Stars are struggling on the road (7-9-1). Islanders’ firepower should be enough to get the job done (GF/GP ranks 3rd). I’m concerned on NYI being one of the weakest team when facing a PK-situation…As I’m writting this down Stars took one-nothing lead.
—–» 2-0…game over? ahha
BOS vs DET: Bruins regulation @2.15
Offensively, both teams can compare one to each other. Defensively Bruins are dominating:
»5th fewest SOG/GP
»3rd best PK
»10th faceoff % compared to DET 24th, meaning Boston should take advantage of this with puck-possession time. What is interesting in this matchup is that all of the B’s four lines can manage to score. I have a similar thought process looking onto the following game: Preds
NAS vs VAN: Preds-0.5 @2.14
Predators are Stanley Cup containder. No more, no less. Vancouver should not make the playoffs with a healthy lineup, but tonight Horvat, Baertschi, Burrows, Sutter and Gudbranson are all out. Means nothing to you? Ok, that’s fine. Instead, consider these players out AND the fact that Johansen and Hartnell are activated from IR. Let’s get into NAS’ stats:
» 11-3-3 Conference record
» 7-5-2 away record while VAN has 5-6-3 at home
» 8th in GF/GP compared to VAN’s 27th
» 2nd best PP
» 2nd in FO%
» 7th best PK meanwhile 24th in SOG allowed
One concern and actually answer to most of the bullshit we hear from inconsistent Preds is because they rank very LAST in penalty minutes. I believe they can control themselves for this game.
GLTA
Completely there with you on Preds man! I usually hate betting Preds and get nervous taking them on reg but I see a big win for them tonight. Islanders was an auto fade for me given Stars away form. Played Stars small just for fun.
good call on the Stars
Stars are winning 4 to nothing, can’t get asleep here in Europe)))
Wow Islanders got stomped once again by Stars the away form is scary ?
true, BUT after they get stomped they come back big:
5-1 after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game
8-4 after allowing 4 goals or more
Oh yea but not tonight I think ?
You may be right, I put a little value bet on it just for fun. I do like the over however