Written by Graeme on Saturday, December 16th, 2017
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It was a +0.35u winning night last night thanks to the New Jersey Devils.
I’m still at a loss as to why they were such a big underdog in that one. In my initial look-through of the games I’d practically written that one off then I saw the odds and was stunned by it. I still can’t see why they were so heavily priced. I’ve really liked their work ethic in the last little while.
We lost with the Sharks over the Canucks. That was a disappointing one especially after Tanev was announced out, with some real sloppy play by the Sharks at times and they lost Couture which sucked. Canucks deserved to win that one and props to them for doing so after all the drastic line changes and an injury ravaged team.
My WHL, AHL & KHL systems are sort of just plodding along but the OHL system, which is the one I’ve worked on the most, is now at +11.24 units for the season! Great to see.
The Canes won last night which I was expecting but it was an OT victory so I’m happy with my call on not backing that one. Just had a feeling Buffalo were going to be a good match for them.
It’s Saturday, December 16th and 11 games on the board. The early game sees the Wild hope to make it 5 in a row as they host the Edmonton Oilers. We’ve got a game at 5pm EST with the Rangers vs Bruins.
Flyers vs Stars Betting Tips:
I think I’ve got to back the rolling Flyers here.
After that nasty losing streak, Philly have racked up 5 wins in a row. A lot of tough battles in there but they did it and impressively they survived the Western Canada road trip with a perfect 3-0.
Their two home victories weren’t anything to write home about – the Leafs are poor right now and the Sabres are destined to be poor for the rest of their franchise history it seems.
However the Flyers are looking more confident as time goes on and I am really impressed with their third period performances. That’s key because if they get overconfident and go down 1-0 or 2-0 early, they still have that to draw back on and give that final push in the 3rd.
I have to think that overconfidence won’t yet be a factor with that losing streak fresh in their minds.
Flyers to win incl OT/SO
Canada: 1.85 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: Best Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 1.85 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2017/12/16 7:43:31 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Islanders vs Kings Betting Tips:
When its an Islanders game you always look at the over first.
I’m a bit concerned with the Kings offense here. They just couldn’t get the puck in the net enough aganst the Rangers despite many attempts. That can hurt a teams confidence however going up against the Islanders you’d think that shouldn’t be an issue.
On the other side Kings have one of the best defense in the league right now and are starting Kuemper it looks like – who actually has a pretty sick record this season so far. But then the Islanders offense is a machine.
Quite a few red flags but I’m going to back this one to go like most Islanders games this season – Over 5.5 Goals incl OT/SO.
Canada: 1.86 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: Best Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2017/12/16 7:43:31 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Capitals vs Ducks Betting Tips:
The Washington Capitals have been a tricky team to bet this season. They’re performing much better in the last few weeks but they can still be a concern.
However I like what I’ve seen from them in the last two games especially against the Bruins. They seem to be raising their game a bit depending on the opponent and I see a lot of similarities between the Bruins and the Ducks in regard to that.
Ducks are a tight team though and with the overtime stats for each team that’s a factor in todays pick as badly as I want to tip them in regulation based on how I see the game going.
Capitals incl OT/SO
Canada: 1.68 Odds at BetOnline..
USA: Best Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 1.68 Odds at BetOnline..
(Odds correct as of 2017/12/16 7:43:31 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Other Game Thoughts:
With the Jets ability to bounce back, I’m fine with a blind bet on them in their match-up with the struggling Blues.
I was VERY close to tipping over 5.5 goals in the Jackets vs Hurricanes game. I’m surprised that line isn’t 6 based on the way they’re both playing lately. Only thing I can think of is past match-up between the teams. There were just enough little things to put me off in that one.
I was so close to tipping over 6 in the Rangers/Bruins game I even had it all written up. There’s just something stopping me from fully advising it.
I probably should be going with Tampa however it’d have to be in regulation and I dunno – it’s one of those games where I started to write it up then it just didn’t feel right. Decided to play it safe and not tip it.
OHL / WHL / AHL / KHL Betting Tips:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. )
OHL Betting Tips (18-7, +11.24u): Sault Ste Marie in regulation 1.70 odds.
AHL Betting Tips (11-11, -0.88u): Syracuse Crunch incl OT/SO 2.18 odds.
OHL, WHL & AHL & KHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
Hi forum members!
Sadly for me it is impossible to watch NHL games live since they take place at night here, starting from 2am-5am and I can only watch recaps in the morning. I believe many of you watch the games live and can analyze different teams and players better. I have some questions and I would be thankful if you take little time to answer them. I would like to know your personal opinion.
1) Who is the best goalie of NHL? Or top 2 goalies?
2) Which team has the best chemistry between its players?
3) Which team has the loudest and most supporting fans?
4) Who is the most underrated and overrated player in your opinion?
5) Which team is most fun and most boring to watch?
Thanks in advance and let’s respect everybody’s opinion 🙂
You can watch all NHL Hockey games here, there is a lot of clicking involved to close all the boxes that open, but if you are patient and take the time, it really is not a problem, and it is FREE !! http://www.myfeed4u.me/section/ice-hockey/
Just in case you aren’t aware of this website http://www.dtmts.com/
You can watch spoiler free highlights the next day and they’re extended highlights.
I use that quite often.
I use it already too but thanks 🙂
My opinion:
1) Pekka Rinne and Gibson;
2) Tampa Bay Lightning;
3) Columbus Blue Jackets;
4) Underrated i don’t know, overrated McDavid;
5) At this time most fun Tampa Bay and most boring…Ducks. Hope change this!:)
early games edm ml bos ml.. also like troy in the early bowl games
Well done soothsayer, your picks were bang on yesterday.
Oilers, Kings and Ducks with one unit.
Oilers with 5u.
Maroon, Laine and Janmark with half.
Went 3 of 3 yesterday 🙂
Tonight’s tips:
Kings ML
Flames ML
Flames – Predators over 5,5 goals
Avalanche – Lightning under 6 goals
Flyers ML
Good luck to all!
very well done brother! Both backups in net for Bolts AVs today
thoughts on the 2 afternoon games?
In my opinion – Wild and Bruins.
Tonight tips,
Stars win
Ducks win
Rangers win
Canadiens win
Jackets win
St louis win
Good luck!
Yesterday was a bit bumpy, Rangers managed the home win, Sharks lost in OT and Canes managed a win making it a 1-2 day. With a lot of games on today there’s opportunity for a bounce back. I’m a little rushed today, so I will post my picks as I make them, and add reasons later on.
Wild ML (70%) – The Wild have won 8 of their last 10at home and have allowed only 9 goals in their last 6 games and have only suffered 4 regulation losses at home all season. Stalock has not been bad in net at all and although the Oilers get Talbot back today, it’s always a question of what Oilers side is going to turn up. The Wild have won 5 of their last 6 meetings against the Oilers, and considering the Wild are playing the best they have all season they’re the team with more consistency here and worth the play. I am playing this myself, although I will freely admit this is a bit risky- given the that the Oilers can sometimes really turn up the heat.
More plays to come.
Oilers outshooting Wild 11-2 in the 1st.
Shots have largely been from the blue line. Not that concerned- so many games it’s more about the quality rather than quantity.
Hope will not see Red Wings vs. Blues reloaded!:)
Stalock is looking good, so it’s fine for now. Rewind to Saros v Oilers… that first period the Preds were getting shelled. Won it 4-0
13-10 in favour of Oilers- Wild getting a lot more time in the offensive now and settling into the game.
I’ll ride the Nashville wave with you tonight too brother . I like the pick , big bet
Let’s make that $$$$ ?
I’m backing you on the preds tonight too OT!!
I got on it early they were +105.. I just looked at the line and it changed to -110
Good job OT on the PREDS!!! It’s been a not so good week for me and that helped me get back even!! Thanks again Oliver!!
Thanks man, happy to help! Preds have been good to us lately!
Capitals, Bolts, probably Penguins, and why not Predators.
Preds all most certainly going to be a big play for me today, especially at these underdog odds!
agreed
I think they will win in regulation.
4 of 4, but no bets at all from my site ).
Preds appeared to be the bank builder indeed and hope the Pens will get some confidence.
Well done man!
A bit bumpy indeed. I’m licking my wounds today, all three of my favorites went down. Based on my analysis I liked the bets and would probably consider them again. As I’ve said in the past, the human factor is the unknown. Last night the home teams came with a high compete level that the visitors couldn’t match. In the future I’ll have to do a better job of considering good teams that have had a rough going coming back with all cylinders firing at home, especially on a Saturday night when there is a lot of energy in the air. On to today…
Preds ML – The oddsmakers continue to undervalue a team that has the best record in the NHL since their Nov 5 trade. Heading into Friday’s action, they are sitting at second in the league (and tied with St. Louis with 44 points). Following Thursday’s 4-0 beat-down of the Edmonton Oilers, they were 20-7-4 to lead the Western Conference. They’re scoring a lot (averaging a fifth-best 3.32 goals per game average), saving a lot (averaging 2.64 goals against per game), and have won 15 of their past 20. Their PP is 2nd in the league and their PK is 8th in the league. Goaltending has been outstanding regardless of who is in net. Tonight the Flames will likely face Rinne who has been a beast. They are healthy and are playing great on the road. I don’t see them missing a step tonight and taking it to the Flames who are only 8-9 at home and 2-3 for past 5. Smith has been playing well lately but has a mediocre 89.6 at home. With two B2B losses this could be another situation where the home team grows a pair of steel balls and takes it to the visitors, but with the confidence that the Preds have right now I just don’t see it.
I’ll post more as I go through the games.
What have I done to you? ? Backing Preds three games in a row. I’ll definitely be adding Preds- especially at another underdog price.
You won me over and I’ll ride them until they go the other way.
Honestly, they look the best they have all year. That top line of Turris, Smith and Fiala is so good. Depth on centre ice is very very good.
Preds played a great game tonight, especially in the 3rd when Flames were pushing hard. Rinne is a beast right now.
Oh look at us making money off the Preds ? been our cash cow lately. 2 nights in a row as an underdog too!
I feel ya.. I have every game in my notes from the past 2 years since i’ve started to make a system of sorts, and teams with 2+ losses in a row at home vs teams feeling good about themselves on the road win about 60% of the time, regardless of position on the standings.
Good rule of thumb is, if you’re not sure the road team is going to bring their A game, it’s almost guaranteed they at least don’t win it in regulation. Aka trap game.
Sometimes it’s tough to know how well prepared the road team is though.. You have no actual data to work with and have to use motivation vs opponent, last game and schedule to come up with some kind of idea what to expect.
I think last night it was pretty easy to make a guess that the Sharks won’t bring their best being on a B2B against a Canucks team that had been blown out 2 games in a row, while the Sharks have nothing to prove against them, and they are a drop down from Calgary in terms of roster quality.Just my thought process though, and even knowing all this i still almost went for the Sharks.
Just the other night i got burned by the Sens-Rangers game. Rangers didn’t have a great effort against Dallas, for the Sens it was more than just one game, coming off a terrible road trip nobody wants to lose in front of their fans. In hindsight, the writing was on the wall that the Sens effort would be able to prevail as it’s tough to flip a switch if you’re the Rangers.
So yeah.. When you have the confidence in those type of games going for home teams they can be the best type of bets, but it’s really tough to get on a roll with those because most of the time stats-wise it makes no sense 😀
Arto, thank you for the thoughtful comments. Just running out the door so I can’t make a better effort to reply. GL today.
SDB was there not an email sent out today??
Hi Arto!
“win about 60% of the time”
Are you talking about home or away team regarding that 60% winning?
Thanks in advance.
@@SanDiegoBruins:disqus do you understand if Arto was talking about home or road team? Look at my previous post. Thanks in advance!
I know Tampa is a good team but Colorado is playing well lately, I have a feeling this one could go to the home team with Budaj in net
Man I just stay away from Hurricanes games at the moment- they’re a team who know how to stick it to the best of them. Jackets also have a tendency to fade eg. Being thumped by Devils and lost a 3 goal lead to the Islanders… I said this the other day when they played Vegas. They’re a team that is better than they look.
What am I missing with Pens and Bolts, why is almost everyone avoiding them ?
I am considering playing them- I’m just making sure they’re worth the reg play first. There is absolutely 0 value in the ML. Pens I’m also a bit nervous of given their form lately (1-4). Avalanche have been a rather good home side in general this season, and Tampa may find it harder than they anticipate… It’s one of those situations where you want to avoid just jumping on them because they’re the “better team”. Reg is sometimes tricky and where there isn’t value on the ML it’s better to be certain first.
I love the Bolts tonight, only thing to be aware of is Budaj in net. He’s awful on the road. Pens are in disarray, consider Yotes PL here at +150
With you on Bolts and agree Pens not worth it given their form.
I’ve just had a better look at Bolts, and I cannot bet against this side. Budaj kept the avs to only 2 goals a few days back, and this lightning side is in a class of its own lately. Considering the Avs couldn’t put more than 2 passed a leaky Reimer and Panthers, I wonder if theyll get much here. Seeing as Bernier is also in net I like the chances of Tampa tearing them apart. I’m taking them in reg with 90% confidence. Pens are just a bit too iffy right now to back at those odds- I’d rather take my money and put more on Tampa in this spot.
Ok thank you guys, I will take bolts and avoid Pens in that case.
Hi everyone, this is my first post on the forum. I’ve been following this forum for a while now, but it’s only that i’ve decided to get in on the action. I’m a big fan of both Oliver Trigg and SanDiegoBruins picks.
I’m going for these bets tonight (be aware that i only really bet ML, so i don’t get screwed over).
Bruins ML
Blue Jackets ML
Flyers ML
Islanders ML
Capitals ML
Lightning ML
Predators ML
If you have any questions about my picks, please do ask.
Go Sharks!
Thanks for the praise and welcome. Smart move sticking to ML. However, in situations where the odds are awful like Tampa and Pens tonight – my opinion is to play the reg or make no play at all. I agree with all your picks par the Islanders. The Islanders are a sliding team right now, and have such bad defensive and goaltending issues that I think it wise to either not bet the game/bet against the Islanders/ take the over but avoid betting the Islanders at all costs.
You have a point with the odds, i’m leaving both matches then. I originally wanted to bet Kings ML, but they’ve struggled defensively in their last two matches and they’re playing their third straight road game and coming from a back to back. Islanders has been impressive on home ice as well, so I’m sticking with that pick. Thanks for the feedback though and good luck with your picks.
Been impressive but less impressive lately- thumped 5-2 by the Stars and let 6 in from an impotent Senators offense. But you maybe right! Good luck
Hey Oliver, what do you think about LVK today?? I’m thinking about laying it on them big today??
I will post my tips soon man. Think LVK are good today, but again trying to justify reg as ML is shit.
I will probably play them, I will post my picks soon but just doing additional research before hand.
Sounds good sir. I’m just waiting on them to send the email out for today! Sorry for buggin ya.. Good luck today sir!
I would rather prefer over at the Islanders match, did not analyze that match though yet.
Make some cash with Oilers so another half unit on Janmark, Laine and Rakell.
Ur my hero Magus
Jackets ML
Blues ML
D. Brown to score for LAK!
Good luck everyone!
Rinne playing out of his mind in 3rd