Written by Graeme on Saturday, December 23rd, 2017
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Well it’s freezing cold here in Kingston this month but thankfully our tips have been keeping me warm!
A hot month continued last night with the Over 5.5 goals in the Panthers/Wild game hitting. We needed an empty netter so it was a little but closer than I liked but it was nice to get that win.
Also quite happy that I stayed away from the two big favourites – the Flyers and the Capitals. Flyers lost to Buffalo who I was tempted to pick, and Capitals lost to the Coyotes.
We turn our attention to Saturday, December 23rd and it’s a busy night before the break. If you’re looking for a TV show to watch over the holidays, check out the Canadian show Letterkenny. You might not get a lot of the humour/patter if you’re not Canadian – but goddamn it’s a great show. Not a family show though!
I’ve looked at the past few years data before the Christmas break and I’m not seeing any big trending data sticking out to sway the picks one way or the other so I’m personally going with “business as usual” this evening.
Islanders vs Jets Betting Tips:
Islanders are the Islanders and most likely have Greiss in net.
Jets have Mason in net. His stats actually make him look worse than he is this season – he had a bad run early October with 5, 6 and 5 goals against him but since then has had 4 solid starts letting in 2 goals or less.
However it’s the Islanders offense and no-one can seemingly stop them especially when they’re at home.
Have to go with Over 6 Goals in this one.
Capitals vs Knights Betting Tips:
I’ve been pretty sure I was going to go with this bet all week long and last nights result was a bonus as it gave us big odds.
Washington Capitals to win incl OT/SO.
Going up against a top team like the Knights(there’s a sentence I didn’t think I’d type) who are ridiculously good at home – it’s the type of game where the Capitals just show up.
Maybe the Knights outwork them like they do everyone else but I’ve seen the Capitals show up in games like this time and time again and I’ll back them to do just that.
My personal bet for this one is 2 units on the Caps incl OT/SO and 1 unit in regulation (out of a 0.5/1/2 unit betting system). Believe me the Knights scare the hell out of me but I’ve won enough with the Caps in situations like this that I can trust them.
Other Game Thoughts:
In the other early game I’m personally playing Bruins in regulation although can’t advise it as a tip.
I’m swamped today so won’t get back to edit tips but I’d be going with Rangers to win if Matthews isn’t playing or the over 6 if he is.
I like Canes against the Sabres but odds not very good.
OHL / WHL / AHL / KHL Betting Tips:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. )
AHL Betting Tips (11-11, -0.88u): Hartford Wolf Pack incl OT/SO 1.74.
OHL, WHL & AHL & KHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
Bruins ML
Islanders/Jets Over
Anyone gonna be watching the Avalanche/Coyotes game? Haha
Red Wings, Blackhawks, Avalanche and Caps with 1u;
Red Wings with 5u;
Larkin, Stone and Rantanen with 0.5u.
I think Graeme is right regarding these breaks, it’s just business as usual. I know all the players talk about getting on the break on a high note and all that, but it’s just white noise. I’ve never found it having any impact on a game. If you’ve done your homework and think a team is going to have bad effort or bad game, then you’re most likely going to see it. Or if a team is due for a good game and have it, it wasn’t because wanting to get off on a high note.
Perfect example of this was last night with the Flames. I stayed away from it because i thought there’s a very good chance the Habs come out hungry and plain outwork them. Well that’s exactly what happened. If the Flames really came out determined to get that one before the break they would’ve showed it on the ice.
Which brings me to the Caps last night, they all talked about how they can’t underestimate the Coyotes and it’s been a tough building for them. Well they couldn’t even muster 20 shots.
Determination and effort isn’t something you get by talking about it, it has to come from within. People always ask me well they are top paid athletes, that should be their job. And my answer always is yes, but they’re also human. If you feel like you’re good enough to win without it, it’s not going to come out. Flyers learned it the hard way last night as well.
But enough of that.
15 games tonight, geez. It’s always overwhelming when the NHL gives us all the hockey in one day before Christmas. Makes it hard to analyze all the games when halfway through your head starts to hurt from all the thinking.
So im just going to keep it simple today: Oilers to win in regulation
I said a while ago i’ve been following them closely since that buttkicking they got from the Blues, and i’ve been looking to bet on them after every loss. They’ve been working consistently, but haven’t got consistent results which is natural when they’ve been struggling like they did before, flipping a switch is hard. The Sharks game felt different right away though and i was positive they were going to finally make it 2 in a row which they did. Then they played the Blues, again looking at everything i was sure they were going to get their revenge, not as much based on what they were doing, but how bad the Blues are right now. They got it, but it didn’t come easy, which is perfect for this game because when you win these tight games, you’re less likely to get complacent. Habs have won 2 straight and 3 out of their last 4, so they know they’re going to get a good challenge tonight. And just coming off a blowout revenge game of their own, the players talked about how they know the Habs are going to come out hard after what happened earlier in the season (6-2 win for Oil). And i really think they meant it.
Oilers are full of confidence, hungry for more and ready to go. Habs are on a B2B and a very mediocre team, especially without Weber.
Personally i think the Oilers are going to kick some ass tonight, maybe it’s me being overly positive about the recent results they’ve had, but i feel good enough about it to tip it.
GL with whatever you bet tonight and have a great christmas !
Good thoughts Arto, they address the questions I have about elite teams mailing it in versus much weaker teams.
I’d tail you on the Oilers but ML is already -185 and reg is -120. Are you confident enough to tip regulation in this game?
Yeah, i’d even go as far as tipping PL. Not quite sure what exactly to expect from the Habs, but im pretty confident Oil will play a good game. Here’s hoping the puck goes in tonight.
Niemi in net for Habs, Oilers look good.
Boy am I glad I read this post. I was about to bet on a team prop Fla/Ott (would have lost) but after having read this post, I changed my mind, bet on the Oilers to win in Reg and went to bed smiling:) Thanks for the helpful analysis:)
Happy Holidays!
ET
What a painful evening last night was. Haven’t had a week this bad in a long time. Outcome on Flames was as expected, but chose ML instead of inc OT. Arizona also cost me last night.
Approx 2.5 units lost.
Onwards and upwards.
For me, the Knights have the extra rest day and have a killer home record this season. I like the way they play. They’ve been so consistent and I just cannot ignore how good a team they have become.
Personally I’ll be going Vegas ML at approx 2.20 on my chosen bookmaker.
Further update/edit will follow.
Update: I’ve been away from the scores until about 10 minutes ago, so left with only the two remaining games as I hadn’t placed any bets.
I too am tempted by La Kings. They’re an extremely talented side. SJ just don’t do it for me. SJ won against the Kings back mid November.
LAK have a wave of confidence after two straight wins are generally
Playing the better hockey right now.
Boston Bruins
Carolina Hurricanes
New York Rangers
Bolts
J. Tavares and P. Laine to score
Good luck everyone!
Painful for me as well. Maybe we can put our heads together and try to identify situations where the heavily favored team can get upset by a much weaker team. In hindsight, the Caps were probably looking ahead to tonight and figured the Yotes would just roll over in deference to their superior talent. Ha! Think again. The Yotes showed up big time with upset on their mind. Weaker teams use these mismatches as motivation and sometimes the giants are too over confident. Clearly the Preds felt the same way and were embarrassed in their barn. I didn’t watch the game but they went down very quickly and it was all over. I don’t have time for big write-ups today but here are my thoughts. I’m mostly going on prior knowledge and not exhaustive research so tread carefully with my tips today:
Bruins regulation -125 – There will be a lot of energy in the Garden today because it’s a matinee before Christmas and the fans will be rocking. Detroit won’t stand a chance.
Jets-Isles over -115
Blackhawks-Devils over -110
Preds ML +105 (bounce back game)
Preds-Stars over 5.5 -125
Nucks ML +130 (can’t believe I’m doing this, but they are giving good teams a run for their money and Blues are slumping)
Kings ML +105 – I like this play because San Jose has been struggling lately and Kings are a very solid team playing for division standing.
Caps ML – I think the Caps were looking ahead to this game last night and will be bringing it tonight. They will see the Knights as an elite team and will treat this as a playoff game. In fact, it’s not unlikely they could meet in the playoffs.
GLTA SDB
Oh my you’re back on Preds too. Let’s hope today is a good one for us brother
God this has been an awful week. Watching the Wild drop a lead twice and then lose it, was only made worse by watching the Caps concede with the Coyotes playing with an empty net. I also did end up going with the Flyers. So yeah a stinking 0-3 night for me. The last 4 days has done some serious damage to my bankroll, and again I apologise to anyone following me in this cold streak. A lot of us in this forum seem to be struggling at the moment, and I’ve seen other cappers comparing this to the beginning of November when teams were so unpredictable. For the love of Xmas let’s hope I can right the ship now. I genuinely feel like if I was a hockey team atm the Flyers during their 10 game loss streak or the Coyotes would sum me up. I just keep hitting bumps.
I am going to avoid making any immediate plays early in the day so I can devote more time to my picks. I’m also on holiday, so trying to fit this inbetween getting some sun on the beach. I will update as I go along so keep refreshing the page. Any and all constructive additions/ criticism is more than welcome. Here’s what I’m feeling so far –
Canes Reg- The Canes need to start notching up wins to undo the damage of the past few weeks, and have made great strides lately going 4-1 in their last 5 beating the Jackets, Golden Knights and Preds during that time. This Canes side when it shows up has the talent to put the smack down on some of the best teams on the NHL- don’t let their record confuse you. The Sabres have been better but come into this game with 0 rest, and have failed to win a game against the Canes in their last 7 tries. It will be interesting to see who is in net for Buffalo, and if it’s Chad Johnson I will probably play this even harder. If Lehner is in net for the second night in row, it will be interesting to see how he handles a Canes side that shoots the puck aggressively. Buffalo have won a game and it’s almost always too much to ask for them to do that two games in a row. In they’ve only managed back to back wins once this season (with 2 days rest), and not once on no days rest. Carolina need to start pushing if they’re going to stand any chance of making the playoffs and need to ride their momentum and take every game like a playoff game.
Tampa Reg- Odds are crap on ML, and although reg has burnt me lately (including Tampa against Sens) Tampa have barely ever needed OT to win their games. The Wild have lost their defensive rigidity lately, with their goals allowed average skyrocketing lately. Dubynk has been out, but the real problem is down to the defence not Stalock. Watching the Wild offence last night, was like watching paint dry. They were boring and seemed afraid of shooting, passing and passing some more when in good positions. Wild are average right now if not probably below average right now. Tampa struggled against a desperate Sens team and just lost out to Vegas. With just 3 losses at home all season and 5 losses in the last month, I question the Wilds ability in their current form and on no rest to do much against Tampa. Stalock has been good, but he is no Vasi and his defence and offence aren’t doing enough to give the team a chance of winning games right now. The odds seem to get more horrendously priced on Tampa every time I look, but the juice is probably worth laying.
Preds ML- I know I can’t believe I’m typing that either….. Preds have burnt me twice now, the Jets being mildly acceptable but the loss to the Canes being a real joke. That being said Preds cashed me in on their last road trip, and especially when listed as an underdog. I smell potential for the same tonight with Preds being offered as underdogs yet again. Dallas have dipped in form lately, dropping 6 of their last 9 including a 5-2 beating at home by the Preds. The Preds were underdogs in that game too- and they cashed me in. Dallas put up an impressive 4-0 against the hawks to notch a win in their last game, but the Hawks (despite their uptick in form) have not been the Hawks team of previous seasons. This was the third time this season Dallas beat the Hawks. With the pure talent of the Preds, and the tightly contested central I doubt the Preds will want to lose for the third time in a row for the first time this season. Having been smacked around early by the Canes, and kept quiet on the offense they’ll want to come back and smack the Stars for the second time this season. At this price, the Preds look pretty sweet.
Leans – Kings – due to the Sharks injuries and recent issues.
Will add more later if I see anything I like.
Also likely jumping on Bruins tonight in the early game. Simply think they’re too good for an inconsistent Red Wings side.
Agreed. I like the over in the other early game and also Jets ML
Agree, 1-1 atm – but i think Boston will win it in regulation.
****Added Play – Oilers Reg- With Niemi confirmed in net for Montreal I think tonight is a bloodbath for Habs.
– Update – Johnson in net for Sabres. Carolina definitely a high confidence play now.
Any thoughts on the over in the Ottawa/Florida game?
Well it’s a good thing I didn’t play the over!!! Lol. Now I’m talking to myself.. lol
Lol sorry I usually avoid overs and unders. I know it sounds weird, but I always feel like that’s really gambling. Even though I can’t doubt taking overs in islanders games is always the way.
UNDER: Carolina, Vancouver
OVER: Vegas
Tied after regulation: Florida, Rangers, San Jose
No picks or leans for sides today. In a way I’m hoping Vegas wins in style tonight in a game that may find Washington a little apathetic just before the break. Vegas is at home with the home crowd to rally them all night, it could be a setup for a lob-sided Vegas win!
Any thoughts on Blues ML and Penguins ML?
Like Blues more, Pens is a great team but not now.
They really need to win, – so both 2 single bets looking good to me.
Thinking of a possible parlay: Lightning ML, Canes ML, and Blues ML
Solid parlay- I’m also going canes ML & Oilers ML parlay
No surprise for the Pens prediction, they are out of playoffs with the current performance but i hope they will improve soon.
Extra bet for the Oilers to win, let’s see.
I’m with you. Niemi in net for Habs
Yep, Talbot will catch the pucks and the Oilers offence can surprise any opponent in the league – like the way they played previous season.
With you on that as well. ML parlay: Oilers, Hurricanes, Lightning
Thanks, has been a 100% correct thought and prediction.
Hope Habs will still improve.
Anybody have thoughts on Florida and Ottawa on the OVER???
Yesterday I went 2-2. Tonight’s tips:
Canucks ML
Senators ML
Leafs ML
Avalanche ML
Good luck to all!
Any thought on Preds and Stars if they go to overtime?
Going with Dallas, let’s see what happens!