Written by Graeme on Friday, February 2nd, 2018
Follow @BetNHL
It was a fun night of hockey but a slight losing night as we lost our 1u play but won our 0.5u play. That puts our 0.5 plays at 9-3 for the season crazily enough although we’d expect them to have higher variance so not a surprise it’s swung one way big.
That Leafs game yesterday was an interesting one. I’d said yesterday that this is the point of the season where you want to hang your hat on a team – a team that’s going to crush the 2nd half of the regular season in the run up to the playoffs.
I’d even specified the Leafs but warned not just yet. Despite the result I think it was the best move staying away from them – the odds just weren’t good enough considering everything. Do have to wonder if they’re just performing for the dads as well. Of course the dads trip isn’t a magic formula – see the Blues disappointing loss last night.
Avs finally got back on the winning track with a big win over the Oilers. Still amazes me the Oilers were such heavy favourites in that game. And what a fighting performance from Tampa to get us that 0.5u win. The Flames must hate 3rd periods at the moment. That’ll be something to consider for future games with them – the period by period stats for their opposition.
Man do I love this type of year though. Every game feels fresh, more exciting to watch and analyze. See who’s up for it and who isn’t etc.
It’s Friday, February 2nd and we’ve got 4 games on the board.
Capitals vs Penguins Betting Tips:
The last two between these two have been disappointments in terms of goalfests but we know these two can produce, and we’ve got to back over 5.5 with two offenses like this.
Both teams have the ability to score goals and Crosby is on a good streak point wise while Malkin is clicking. Caps took a bit to get going but came out of the all star break against Philly on fire and the Penguins did as well with that big win over the Sharks.
Pens offense has been excellent at home the last little while and haven’t let up since the Canes shut em out.
Neither team has been solid defensively this season – so many wins have been out and out shootouts.
Over 5.5 Goals
Canada: 1.91 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 1.91 Odds at BetOnline..
(Odds correct as of 2018/02/02 8:44:44 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Unit/Confidence Betting Tips:
Capitals/Penguins Over 5.5: 2u.
(We are experimenting with adding unit/confidence to our betting tips. For more details see this post.)
OHL / WHL / AHL / KHL Betting Tips:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. )
OHL Betting Tips (23-10, +11.48u): 0.5u double on Sault Ste Marie & Sarnia Sting at 1.96.
AHL Betting Tips (17-16, +1.04u): Lehigh iin reg 2.05. 0.5u on Wilkes-Barre in reg 1.70. Chicago Wolves -1.5 at 2.05 0.5u. 0.5u on San Jose Barracuda incl OT/SO 2.23.
OHL, WHL & AHL & KHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
I don’t bet against the Knights but this may be a spot to go against them. They had to play OT in Winnapeg last night and now head to Minny who they lost to once already earlier this year. Not saying it’s a play but I’m going to look into it. I learned my lesson earlier in the season betting against these Knights.
With the Wilds home performances I think it’s a great spot to bet against the Knights. But the way the Knights are we just can’t advise that.
Graeme, what’s your thoughts on the Blue Jackets tonight? They been a little on and off this last month if you get me.
Very closely matches games and both teams really represent similar results etc. Probably doing a small bet on game going to OT
Knights over 5.5 what do you think. Old 1.90 which is good
Probably a decent enough bet at that price. Only real negative is Wild at home and Dubnyk at home but conceded 2 and 3 in the last 2.
Bets:
Canes Reg
Pens Reg
Small bets:
Jackets ML
Wilds Reg
1) Wash-Pitts – OVER, no sides bet. Both teams playing well recently and for home/away, but both teams highly volatile and unpredictable. The Home/Away score results show clear trend to go Over tonight.
2) Detroit-Carolina – TIE after regulation. All the stats I see indicate both teams should be just about equal in offense and defense, both teams are middle of the pack. The lean is for an Under result but no going to bet it.
3) SJ-Columbus – No clear bet, lean to tie after regulation. Both teams showing a post-break and post-All-Star break slackoff and otherwise have stats that are similar for offense/defense and home/away, and haven’t played each other for a year and half, so this is not a rivalry game.
4) Vegas-Minnesota – no bets. This all depends on how Minnesota plays. Stats show mostly equalized results except Minnesota has a one-goal advantage on defense when playing at home, against Vegas, but we all know Vegas is out to win every game and usually does; they don’t follow stats very well. Vegas lost to Minnesota in Minnesota in November, so look for Vegas to be on the warpath and probably dominate the second and third period, no matter how these two teams start it out in the first. Vegas is on the road and back-to-back, blah blah blah, but if they press Minnesota like they did Winnipeg and Calgary, they’ll win, as Minnesota doesn’t have the powers of home game offense Winnipeg does. I disagree with any leans on Over/Under, I think this one is easily going to the 5-goal zone and from there?
Hi, Western,
Thanks for the in-depth analysis. According to Espn,
Niederreiter is back so his presence could boost their offence but he hasn’t played in 3 wks…
Thanks G.
The experimental mathematical system S&G use for the OHL/WHL is s good indicator of the potential winner. Tonight in the OHL, Sarnia is a heavy favourite vs Flint. Odds are -315/ +225. This is based on:
Sarnia 50GP 35-12-3 / 9-0-1 73pts
Flint 48GP 15-29-3/ 3-6-0 34pts.
Sometimes I think my bookie doesn’t give the underdogs enough credit. For example, Flint beat the Sault ste Marie Greyhounds 4-2 late Jan. Their record is 48GP 40-5-2 83pts.
If you like betting on the ‘underdog’ for a few bucks, Junior
hockey
Red Wings, Sharks, Penguins and Wild with 1u;
Nielsen, Hornqvist, Donskoi and Granlund with 0.5u.
Wow dude. How much $ did you make tonight 😛 according you always bet regulation
+40 units.
only lock is when I see POTD go the other way….
lol
They will learn but I do enjoy the write ups.
Any luck with that?
It’s sports it happens.
Hi Greame and Scotts and everybody here .
I just want to say thank you for the great tips over the years . I have been followed this pages abt 3 years now and i got much better at annalizing hockey . Im still down but the damages is not as big as before -_-
You guys have any other pages for soccer , basketball , nad football ??
I personal think it is better to combine some hockey picks with soccer , basketball and football.
I think we each should share our picks on the sport that we r good at so everybody can pick and combine and win ..
What do you guys think ??
Me & Scott cover CFL at http://www.betcfl.net
I do:
NBA: http://www.nbatips.net
Golf: http://www.golfbettingtips.org
WWE: http://www.betwwe.com
WNBA: http://www.WNBATips.com
I also occasionally write at http://www.sportsbettingtips.org covering MMA & F1.
I’ll be launching a specific MMA Tips site and soccer tips site later this year.
If anyone wants to discuss non-hockey stuff on here go for it. None of the above sites have communities as big as this one so I’m fine with it all being here.
I’d be interested in the football (soccer) one for sure. That’s my main betting sport, aside from Hockey.
Share ur soccer picks with us Lendo
The odds for Knights reg is now 3.06, that is kinda funny considering it is for Knights.
Wild are very solid at home + tough back to back for Vegas
Love the wild here if Mr. Subban is confirmed. Minni doesn’t get any respect because their terrible on the road. Take a peak into their home record last 20 games lol
Minni is a solid play tonight.
Dubnyk is confirmed for Minnesota. Dubnyk has won four of his last six starts (4-1-1) while posting a 2.31 GAA and .922 SV%. https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/
Hello Gents.
Hurricanes – Red Wings, probably under 5.5 here – 1 unit @1.88, maybe even red wings win ( no OT ) 0.5 units, prematch @2.52 on 1xBet.
Penguins to win at regulation 1 unit.
Las Vegas -1.5 win, odd is great, but might be totally bad idea..so 1 unit still @4.4 odd, for fun
Nba, sacramento kings +14.5, 1.5 units.
GLTA
Knights!!!
But I have to disagree with NBA Kings bet. The Warriors are fully healthy and a short trip to Sacramento will play out like a home game for them. With the Kings already resting veterans in spots, they are in tanking mode, and the Warriors will have a field day.
True, thanks.
Not really, it was a tough game for the GSW, they fought for every point and hardly a field day. But I will take the win.
Ok, more fun.
Blue Jackets to go to OT but smart fun – 0,25 units only.
Kinda feeling bud ! Good luck
I don’t see anything super sharp today. I’m putting 1 unit on Knights ML. I recognize it’s a risky bet for the reasons mentioned by others but I love that they show up every game and give themselves an opportunity to win. If Wild has an off game it’s great odds for the Knights.
I like Red Wings-Canes under. Neither team is an offensive juggernaut and the Canes are actually quite stingy.
GLTA SDB
Under 5.5 Wings/Canes, Under 5.5 Sharks/Jackets…pretty strong plays I feel
In fact you want a bet tonight…Under 22.5 Grand Salami…I love that tonight. I think 3 of the 4 games go comfortably under
Going for over 5.5 in Pittsburgh vs Capitals
minn PL
Yup ! Cash it.
$$$$$$$$
Minnnnnnnniiii… Love everything about Vegas but I hope minni hammers em. Great spot for it should be no excuse other than Vegas is pretty awesome when not playing 3 road in 4th night to a team they already lost to at home.
7 5 final Pitts Wash ? lol wow finally a game that makes the line makers look stupid !
This was tough to wake up to..