Written by Graeme on Thursday, February 28th, 2019
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First of all a big thanks to everyone for voting in the poll yesterday. There was a couple of runaway winners in the Swedish Hockey League and the Finland SM Liiga. The EBEL and the German Eishockey Lgia also got votes so I may look into them as well.
A lot of it is just about time more than anything else. As during the off season I will take the time to test the system out on historic data and make adjustments where necessary. Then the day to day stuff takes work too. As while it is primarily mathematical, I have to do some personal adjustements and interpretations based on the data too.
I do hope to add both the SM Liiga and Swedish Hockey League to the non-NHL Tips going forward into next season.
It was a 1-0 night last night with the NHL Tips wich could have been a 3-0 night. The lone tip we had was the Blackhawks vs Ducks. I felt good about that one going over as the Ducks offense made me wary. It was the advanced metrics that made me go with that tip and I’m glad it worked out.
I wanted to take the over in the Oilers vs Leafs game. I didn’t and honestly I’m glad – winning that bet due to the Leafs scoring so many goals would have just felt dirty ha. I would have won that bet but for all the wrong reasons.
The other one I wanted was Flames in regulation. When I was doing the tips yesterday, everything I read suggested Schneider would be in net which was my main reason for staying away. Even though Blackwood ended up suiting up – that one was a tight enough game that I don’t feel too bad about missing it.
Tricky night tonight. Jackets and Flyers both seem inconsistent and the Flyers are almost tempting as a value play. Coyotes in regulation is tempting but the Canucks are showing some signs of life. Coyotes have won 4 in a row but only one of them was in regulation.
I’d think Leafs – with Tavares returning to New York – would be up for this game and get the win. But their 4-0 drubbing by the Islanders in December is fresh on my mind as is their recent road trip and just overall struggles.
Panthers vs Knights Betting Tips:
I just feel the line is way off on this one. It’s based more on expectations than past performances or current form.
Yes the Knights made some moves. Yes they thumped the Stars 4-1. But they’ve still got their issues. Maybe everything clicks for them and this is when they go on a nice run just prior to the playoffs. It’s certainly possible. They looked freaking electric against the Stars with a CF of 71 and they limited the chances against too which is what they needed.
But beating the Stars isn’t anything to write home about at the moment.
If you base it JUST on that one game then yeah 100% the odds should be what they are. However I just think that’s a bit reactionary. Panthers have had some fighting performances and tend to rack up the chances. They should be more of a challenge for the Knights than the Stars were.
If the Knights blow them away then cool – they are for real and gelled quickly – but I do think this is a reactionary line that gives us value.
0.5u on Panthers to win incl OT/SO.
Canada: 2.85 Odds at GT Bets...
USA: +185 Odds at GT Bets..
Everyone Else: 2.85 Odds at GT Bets...
(Odds correct as of 2019/02/28 9:57:49 AM EST but are subject to change.)
OHL / WHL / AHL / KHL / Czech Extraliga Betting Tips:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. )
Czech Extraliga Betting Tips (8-4, +2.26u): 1u Bili Tygri Liberic in regulation 1.75.
OHL Betting Tips (18-16, -0.01u): 0.5u on Windsor Spitfires incl OT/SO 1.82.
Where To Bet the Non-NHL Leagues:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
