Written by Graeme on Saturday, May 30th, 2020
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Welcome to the third day of covering actual NHL teams.
So far I have covered the Coyotes vs Predators series, and the Oilers vs Blackhawks series.
That leaves 6 series to go then…..man, I dunno what we’ll tip. Just have to wait and see. Hopefully we see some props or something pop up.
I did notice BetOnline. is currently offering series outcome prices. For example you can bet Canucks to win 3-1, and you can bet the total games in the series.
Todays random generator brings us the Pittsburgh Penguins vs Montreal Canadiens series.
The current odds on this one have the Penguins about 1.51 and the Habs 2.70.
Looking at the aforementioned series outcome, the sportsbooks expect it to be a tighter one with the favoured otucome being Penguins 3-2. That’s 3.75. Penguins 3-0 or 3-1 is 4.25.
Let’s do some quick analysis:
Penguins vs Canadiens Series Betting Tips:
The Penguins ended the season in third place in the Metro. They were 4 points behind the Washington Capitals. They had a 23-8-4 home record and 17-15-2 away record. They won 3 out of 3 shootouts however were on a brutal run, going 3-7-0 in their last 10 games.
The Montreal Canadiens finished 5th in the Atlantic. Their playoff dreams were deservedly over. They had a 14-17-6 home record and 17-14-3 away record with 4 wins out of 5 shootouts. They finished the season in average form with a 4-5-1 in their last 10 although had lost their last three games.
These two teams played three times during the regular season. The results were:
February 14th: Penguins 4-1 Canadiens
January 4th: Canadiens 2-3 Penguins
December 10th: Penguins 1-4 Canadiens
Looking at the advanced metrics, the 4-1 loss wasn’t as dominant as it looks. Habs were with Pens all the way and at 3-1 became the better team. Not the same for the Penguins win in OT in January where the Pens were very dominant. The December 10th encounter was a fun one as it was all very even until exactly halfway through the game where the Habs hit 3 quick goals to take over.
For the record – prior to the series beginning I’ll be going back and watching the games. I just like to look from the analytics perspective as well.
I’ll be honest I went into this one ready to tip the Penguins handicap. Price just isn’t the goalie he once was. However looking at the advanced metrics it might be a bit competitive and that 3-2 favoured prediction doesn’t seem too bad.
Penguins might be extra motivated for this however. Many of them seem frustrated and angry about the playoff setup.
Penguins took a little bit to get going to start the season, getting beaten twice in their first three games before going on a nice little winning run. The Habs had a lot of close games to start the season (2 shootouts and an OT) and were sloppy.
The Penguins also had a season racked by injuries which affected them in terms of finding consistency.
The Canadiens defense started real bad however got better as the season went on. However the Habs thought they were out of the playoffs and got rid of Cousins and Thompson which will be a big loss.
Conclusion: Penguins were prepared for the playoffs. The Habs weren’t. I wouldn’t count out the Habs if Carey stands on his head. Plus the pressure cooker will make things interesting. Habs with no pressure may end up playing extremely well while the Penguins may feel the pressure that much more.
However in terms overall quality, I’ve go to go with the Penguins. Right now I’d lean Penguins -1.5 for the series as I think they win this one 3-1.
Canada: Bovada, BetOnline...
Everyone Else: 888 Sports, BetOnline..
