Written by Graeme on Monday, October 25th, 2021
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Hi all,
No tips yesterday. Knights are now 1-4-0 for the season after the Islanders managed to beat them. Must admit I am surprised the Knights couldn’t even get on the scoresheet yesterday.
Detroit bounced back with a big win. Bruins won in regulation as expected but it was a bit tight at the end. Preds got a nice win over the Wild.
We’ve got seven games on the board today. Let’s go through them:
Panthers vs Coyotes:
Panthers are incredibly heavy favourites here. They’ve covered the puck line in their last 4 games. Coyotes in their 4 losses have lose via at least 2.
Unfortunately at -1.5, 1.71 odds is too short for me. Hockey being hockey this is one of those games that are a complete mismatch, and the underdog will probably win. Happens a few times a season, always something special.
But yeah Panthers should walk this.
Rangers vs Flames:
I said the other day I am still not sure how to rate this Flames team. I still don’t. Take a huge 3-0 lead over the Caps? Blow it? Then win in OT? Yeah, that doesn’t help me out at all.
I THINK they beat the Rangers here but Rangers have had some solid enough results plus only their 2nd home game. Not enough for me to bet it. Rangers mentally are looking good and motivated too. Yeah, this is one where the more I read I even lean Rangers. Definitely no bet here.
Jackets vs Stars:
Two uninspiring teams right now. This is one where there’s probably enough value to bet on it going to overtime at 4.00 odds. It’s not really something we can advise, but my overtime system(that I started a few years ago and posted plays from it for one season) says that’s a play, if you are looking to back it.
Sabres vs Lightning:
With the way Tampa are playing right now, there is certainly value on the Buffalo Sabres to win this game.
Tampa could completely wake up and get going though.
I do think there is value here but I just don’t feel great about advising it. If it were me I’d be looking at betting Sabres or Draw which is at about 2.00 odds.
Hurricanes vs Leafs:
This is just a silly line in my opinion. Almost coinflip odds and probably based more on the Leafs name value than anything else.
Look if they bounce back here then they bounce back. It is what it is. But based on performances so far this season, this is a no-brainer for me. I did spend time playing devils advocate on it, but I see no reason not to take Hurricanes to Win incl OT if Andersen is in net.
Like I said for the Sharks game – advanced metrics offense-wise, the Leafs are looking great and are due to light someone up big soon. If this is the game then so be it.
Canada: 1.90 Odds at BetOnline..
USA: -114 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at BetOnline..
(Odds correct as of 2021/10/25 9:14:02 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Senators vs Capitals:
Senators come in having lost their last two. Capitals are unbeaten in regulation.
That Flames game was the first time the Capitals have actually played from behind I believe, which is pretty impressive.
Senators just coming off that game against the Rangers where they blew the lead in an impressive fashion. Forsberg had to go in the net and got lit up which sucked for him. He’ll likely play tonight and hopefully, for him, he has a good game as that situation on Saturday sucked hard.
I feel like Caps in regulation at 1.95 odds approx is fine, but there’s something about it I’m not loving. Not sure what it is but no tip for now. Might be one that I end up posting in the comments later if I like it.
Blues vs Kings:
Blues come in unbeaten through 4. I backed them in regulation on Saturday, and they duly delivered with a 7-3 victory over the Kings.
Odds are about the same for a repeat of that.
What’s different about this game compared to that one? Well, Kings aren’t on a back-to-back. They certainly looked tired. In that game, the penalties were the story with the Blues getting 4 power-play goals there.
This isn’t the home opener either.
But Blues do get Buchnevich back. Saad is likely still out. Kings missing Doughy again it looks like. It’s likely Quick is in net.
Blues may also rest Binnington and get Husso in.
Now if we discount the penalties, and look purely at 5 vs 5 in the previous game – that paints a rather different story. Kings xG 2.56 to 1.7, 40-31 for Fenwick, Corsi was even, more HDCF 13-10.
That sort of thing is a bit of a red flag for me. The Kings lost to the Stars in a similar fashion as well – due to the lack of penalty kill. If they keep their discipline here it may be a different story.
Going to say no bet on this one. This was very, very close to an “if Binnington is in net, play Blues” line but the more I look at the pure 5 vs 5 stats, the more I don’t like it.
The Knights are without most of their offensive units on the ice. With stone and patches out and some of the more offensive minded blue liners out it’s a no brainer to be betting big money against the Knights these next few games or until they can prove they can win.
Their advanced metrics stats for offense are still fairly solid. Of course they tell the obvious tale that they just don’t have the finishers. In saying that, Sorokon was excellent in that Islanders game. They’re not a team I’d blindly bet against but certainly opportunities looking forward. Tomorrow they may struggle to keep up with the Avs.
To WIN on the puckline: Florida, Carolina
Worth the live dog at home risk: Buffalo to WIN
Best teams playing worst teams, always fun to find a live dog with bite. I see Buffalo having a situation in their favor tonight; they’ve been generating shots, goals and wins, and keeping the goals against down, although they’ve mostly played poorer teams so far (lost 1-4 to Boston). But when it’s better VS lesser, the motivation level of the better team is also very important, and Tampa, who hasn’t been playing well (21 goals against already!), is on the road looking at playing high scoring Pittsburgh tomorrow. They won’t be excited about playing Buffalo. Buffalo then gets two days off before playing Anaheim, so on Home ice they should be up for throwing everything they’ve got, offense and defense, at Tampa tonight!
I don’t see the same possibility for Arizona, who have a very weak offense and horrid defense. Florida is playing great and is at home, with a day off before playing Boston at home, so they have reason to be at 100% for this game and take the 2 points.
Thanks for this – I had a small play on Sabres or Draw already but think I will put some more on Buffalo to win too. I really felt it was a sweet spot and this has helped convince me.
Great call on Buffalo and I tailed, thank you!
I decided to dust off my old 1st period system that I used for a bit in 2015/2016 and start posting 1st period plays in the comments. I haven’t touched this system in awhile but motivated to get into it again.
Here were the stats from back then:
1st period High Confidence(Regular System): 30-36 (+15.99u)
1st Period Medium Confidence: 2-9 (-5.60)
1st Period Low Confidence: 7-21 (-8.05)
I ran it the season after that as well and learned that – just like the above shows – it’s quality over quantity in terms of picks but that I can better value plays like money line 3-way.
So tonight: Panthers money line 3-way on 1st period. 2.05 odds.
Also I thought there was a glitch in the data but nope – Tampa this season have yet to score even ONE 1st period goal. Crazy.
Olofsson 1 point @2,05
Huberdeau 2 points @2,75
Aho 2 points @3,15