Written by Graeme on Saturday, May 7th, 2022
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I’m not sure exactly how that Leafs vs Lightning game happened to stumble over the over line, but I’ll take it.
It was a fun night of hockey. Tampa at home were not able to handle the Maple Leafs. The Bruins bounced back with a big Game 3. Wild absolutely deciminated the Blues, and the Oilers did the same to the Kings.
Makes for some interesting Game 4s.
We have some early games today – personally these are my favourite days in the playoffs where it’s just playoff hockey all day long.
Let’s get to it:
Panthers vs Caps Bets:
Scott: The Panthers got themselves back on track with their game 2 win. They twice had quick bursts of offense in the game, scoring two in just over 1:30 in the 1st and 2 more in just over 2:00 at the end of the 2nd. They looked great and must have the Caps and their fans worried.
With the series moving to Washington for the next two games the Panthers will need to continue their play to try and regain home ice advantage.
I need to wait and see how the Caps respond to playing at home before I make a bet. Wilson may be back and he provides them with the toughness and top line skill they missed in game 2
No Bet
Graeme: As much as I am looking forward to all day hockey, the early start here puts me off. Might not be as intense a game.
It was a much better outing from the Panthers in Game 2 obviously. By the advanced metrics, Caps weren’t as bad as the result says. A lack of high danger chances then the inability to convert them. Panthers had 19 HDCF and converted 3 of them.
Panthers really wanted that game and were up for it. Tom Wilson being out hurt the Caps for sure but I mean he is still just one player. Caps also have that little issue with goaltending right now – can be tough to decide who to start. Either way – both goalies will step up.
Honestly if you give me a Game 3 and you give me odds like this? I’m happy to bet on the Caps here. Overtime concerns me though, so we’ll go Caps win – Draw No Bet.
Ontario: 2.60 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.60 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: Could do -115 Caps or Draw at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.60 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/07 9:26:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Avs vs Preds Bets:
The Avs won again but this time was a much closer game than the 1st one.
Game 2 was closer and needed overtime but the Preds are in over their heads in this one. Saros might be back and the Preds will need him at 100% if they are to male a series of this.
With the last game needing overtime and the series now in Nashville the Preds should be able to keep this one close. I like the Avs to win but I can’t back them -1.5.
No Bet
Graeme: I mean I’m not going to bet a team -1.5 on the road in the playoffs. In a game 3. After that performance by Ingram. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Preds win here. I remember being a bit concerned with the Avs down the stretch in the regular season.
But it’s tough to picture Ingram being able to stand on his head again. It was an incredibly strong performance from the Avs again and they actually had their highest Corsi For of the season – and that’s not including OT.
I have mentioned high danger chances in this series. The Preds were able to get 13 of them, and got a goal from it. Not as good as the previous game with 3 in 15 but still consistency there.
Just with the way the last game is going, no bet for me. I’ll probably either throw something on the Preds to win as I think there might be slight value, or the over just for entertainment – but it’s a solid no bet.
Rangers vs Penguins Bets:
The Rangers evened the series with a win in regulation. Much easier for both teams instead of a triple overtime marathon.
The series is now in Pittsburgh for two games. The Pens know they can’t let the Rangers win again which will give them momentum. With the Pens at home I’ll take them for game 3.
Pens win incl OT
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.11 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +111 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.11 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/07 9:26:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: This series is now in Pittsburgh and I’m surprised to see the Pens as light underdogs. I mean I do get it with Domingue in of course. Penguins were still dangerous enough in that last game with an incredible amount of high danger chances (23) and a better xGF. A lot of that game in the 2nd period as well.
Goaltending at both sides was a big factor and it will likely be a factor again. Rangers seem happy with Game 2 and it seems they have figured out the Penguins and know how to beat them so this will be interesting. Penguins lack of depth at the moment. The injuries are there and that is hurting them.
I am going to go with Over 6 Goals incl OT. Pens are pushing a strong offensive game and even moreso with Domingue in net – they know they need to get the goals to stand a chance. I think they’ll come here.
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Sports Interaction
Rest of Canada: 2.06 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +106 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.06 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/07 9:26:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flames vs Stars Bets:
This series seems like it will be a low scoring one. With only 3 goals and 2 shutouts through 2 games the series is tied at 1.
This works in the Stars favor as they aren’t as strong offensively as the Flames. If the Flames can fond a way to open things up offensively then the Stars will have a hard time keeping up with them.
The Flames will need to find a way to get things going for them now that the series is in Dallas. If the Stars home fans give them a boost then the Flames are down 2-1 after winning their division.
Flames win in regulation
Ontario: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/07 9:26:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Scott is a brave man.
One trope I’ve talked about already during the playoffs is the Stars at home. They were a great bet for a large portion of the regular season.
In their first playoff game at home, I just feel obligated to back them here. With the Flames you know the goals are going to start coming eventually – just have to hope it’s not this game.
Stars incl OT
Ontario: 2.41 Odds at Sports Interaction
Rest of Canada: 2.43 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +145 Odds at GT Bets.
Everyone Else: 2.43 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/07 9:26:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)
I’m with Scott on Flames reg. The Stars will regress to who they really are: a team with B level stars (except Robertson) and a goalie playing well. Flames are going to bring it tonight and it will overwhelm the Stars.
SDB
Full game OVER 5.5: Rangers/Penguins
Leans:
1) Rangers win puckline
2) Flames win moneyline
Florida just got wiped off the ice pond 6-1 this afternoon. I suspect the Penguins are in trouble with a rookie goalie and the Rangers simply waking up to putting on a 100% playoff effort in Game 2 and beyond (like a few other teams have done now). I also agree with the OVER in that game since both teams will be pressing offense hard as the pathway to a win, rather than defense.
For years, (and no players currently in the league talk about this, but it’s been mentioned by ex-players) I’ve been considering a hockey performance theory that might have relevance in the playoffs, called the Ephedrine Theory. Any player who uses it is going to run into a weak period where they need to recover, and if you catch a prominent player group or team doing that, and catch them when they’re weak, you can walk all over them because they won’t have power or endurance. Players know this and will prioritize/strategize when it’s used. That could get tricky in the relentless playoffs. Watch for some teams performing well above average suddenly, or perhaps for several days or for games against top rivals, then a major collapse in performance in the following games, and you suspect more than the normal issue of “motivation” going on.
Just not confident that the Flames will pull off a huge win, but I expect them to realize some ways to beat that Dallas goalie, who has not had much pressure on rebounds or in close. I’ve heard commentators mention a few standard ways that the Flames haven’t pressed yet. To do so would also put the favored UNDER in serious threat, so I’m off the Over/Under on that game.