Written by Graeme on Sunday, May 8th, 2022
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I’m feeling pretty good after yesterday, that’s for sure!
A 3-0 day for me, with two big underdog wins at 2.43 and 2.60 odds. Love it!
Those underdogs were the Capitals and the Dallas Stars. Calgary Flames have to be getting concerned. Not only are they down 2-1 but they don’t look like they are able to adjust to the way the Stars play.
The Avs got a big win to lead 3-0 in the series.
Let’s get to our bets – it’s Mothers Day here and I am a bit strapped for time so my write-ups will be short. Scott was smart and submitted his last night.
Canes vs Bruins Bets:
Scott: The Bruins picked up a crucial win. This was the first win for the Bruins against the Canes since 2020 with the Canes winning the last 5 straight. They had dominated the Bruins during that span outscoring them 26-3. With that win the Bruins must be feeling great and they are going to need any momentum they can get.
With the series still in Boston, the Canes can’t let the Bruins win again to even the series making it a best of 3. Raanta should get the start as he was the backup for game 3. They will get back to what had given them all that success during the 5 games before last.
Canes win incl OT
Graeme: Bruins were able to take advantage of Kochetkov in net last time. That game will give them some confidence although two of the goals were on the power play. Canes were still the overall better team in the advanced metrics. Bruins offense was better though and they had a healthy xGF of 3.03 so it wasn’t just the goaltending that caused the Canes.
I’d rank the Canes as a better team overall and getting underdog odds on them? Yeah If Raanta plays, Canes win incl OT
Ontario: Odds at
Rest of Canada: Odds at
USA: Odds at
Everyone Else: Odds at
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/08 10:18:49 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wild vs Blues Bets:
Scott: Fleury looked great in game 3 and was a huge reason why the Wild won with ease. Kaprizov and Eriksson-Ek continued to put up points and the Wild played a much better game all around using their speed instead of their muscle.
The Blues lost Krug in game 3 joining Leddy and Bortuzzo as injured defensemen for St. Louis.
With the way the Wild played on the road I like them to continue rolling in game 4.
Wild win incl OT
Ontario: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +111 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/08 10:18:49 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Two big wins in a row by the Minnesota Wild. They’ve really made the adjustments needed. To me this feels like a do or die game for the Blues, and I think they’re capable of it. Problem is a couple of key injuries and man I’ll be honest when Kaprizov is hot, I don’t like to bet against him. No bet for me on this one.
Leafs vs Lightning Bets:
Scott: This has been a great series with the teams trading wins. The Leafs responded to their game 2 loss by scoring the first 3 goals and let Soup do the rest. He was great for them.
The Lightning are 16-0 following a loss in the playoffs. They can’t let the Leafs take a 3-1 lead in the series with game 5 shifting back to Toronto. They have so much playoff experience that they won’t panic and get back to what they need to do to even the series
Lightning win incl OT
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -119 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/08 10:18:49 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: No bet here. I won’t bet sides unless they are decent little underdogs. The over 6.5 I think will come in but it was a very, very close one the other night. I got lucky there. I don’t want to push my luck. No bet here.
Oilers vs Kings Bets:
Scott: The Oilers dominated in game 3. It shows you how stacked they are when Kane, Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins did all the heavy lifting offensively. Smith looked good too stopping 44 shots in the win.
The Oilers can take a commanding lead in the series with a win here and would have chance to win it at home in game 5.
The Kings need to figure out what happened and fix it as the Oilers have looked great over the last 2 games outscoring the Kings 14-2.
I like the Oilers to win but I would need to take them in regulation and the Kings are in desperation mode at this point and will be going all out here.
No Bet
Graeme: While I’m not a fan of taking teams in regulation on the road – especially in the playoffs – the Oilers have to be tempting to do so.
It’s over coinflip odds which is pretty decent. When you look at the advanced metrics the Kings contend but the difference maker is the Oilers offense. Not really a surprise of course. Basically as long as the Oilers offense is ticking, they’re good to go.
The Kings can’t stop them so they’re going to have to go all out offense. In saying that they created a lot of chances in the last game and just couldn’t get it going.
Honestly when I look at it – it’s tough. I can’t see the Kings able to make any adjustments to be able to recapture the magic of Game 1. And after what they tried in Game 3 and how it worked out – I think the heads will go down here. If I am correct on that then Oilers in regulation is the play. If I am wrong then the over is probably the play.
Too undecided on this one. No Bet
Random thing I noticed is that the Bruins have a great record in early games this season. Think it was 11-2 or 13-2 or something like that. Anyway then I looked at the Canes stats a bit concerned and saw they are 10-2 in early games. Hope this means both teams put on a good one today
to WIN moneyline: Oilers
Lean to WIN: Minnesota
Lean: full game OVER 6.0: Leafs/Lightning
I like to see teams go animal for 100% assertive effort, regardless of what they’re given shift to shift, and I’m seeing that in the Oilers and Wild. “It’s our god-damned puck!” constant initiative sort of thing, and the Oilers have been disappointed far too often to let off the gas once they’ve found the team accelerator. They’re an offensive threat in depth.
Dropping the O/U count to 6.0 is only half a goal off the Leafs/Tampa mark today, and makes more sense, but I’d bet that series has a low-goal result at some point. Risky. We’ll see.
Brilliant performance yesterday in the Kentucky Derby by Rich Strike and the jockey Sonny Leon, doing very smart maneuvering through the crowd to claim a win, Secretariat-style acceleration in the last half. Definitely laying cash on that horse in the Preakness. Then Rich Strike bites a poorly operated handler horse coming over just after the race, which makes me really like that horses’s spirit.