Written by Graeme on Thursday, May 12th, 2022
Follow @BetNHL
On the verge of eliminaton last night, the New York Rangers managed to pull it together and get a big 5-3 win over the Penguins.
The Trouba hit on Crosby looked nasty on first viewing but after repeat viewings it was clear it wasn’t intentional.
The Calgary Flames needed a big third period to beat the Dallas Stars. The Panthers took the lead in their series with a big 5-3 win over the Capitals.
Four games tonight with two road teams up 3-2, two home teams up 3-2.
Canes vs Bruins Bets:
Scott: The Canes are up 3-2. The Bruins looked bad in game 5, they were sloppy and they need to clean things up or its done.
The home teams have won each game of this series so with this game in Boston it should be a Bruins win and we will get a game 7. But with the way the Bruins looked in game 5 I don’t have a lot of confidence in them here.
Canes win incl OT
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.11 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +111 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.11 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/12 9:47:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme:. I managed to scrape the push on the over in the last game. Boston have shown that they can put the effort in at home and had two big home results so far in this series.
The last game was definitely Bostons worst of the series. When you compare the advanced metrics for that one to Game 1 for example.
I’m not seeing anything I really like here. Bruins getting the results at home puts me off the Canes but it does feel like this will be the end for Boston. If I was going to go with any bet it’d be the over but that has been a bit close lately and if the Canes take an early lead I could see it killing Boston. No Bet.
Leafs vs Lightning Bets:
Scott: The Leafs looked like shit in the 1st period but came alive in the 2nd and now are one win away from their first playoff series win since 2004. No pressure.
Whatever Spezza said to the team during the 1st intermission got the team fired up and they will need more of that for this game with it being in Tampa Bay. The Leafs need to find a killer instinct and end this or it goes to 7 games. They have traded wins up until this game.
All games, except game 1, have gone over but I feel that with the series on the line this one could stay under.
No Bet
Graeme:. So now is it time for Tampa to win? These two seem to alternate. The matchups between these two have been odd as the offensive metrics aren’t out of this world or anything considering the two teams playing. As Scott said – with it being a game with the series on the line we may see a different approach from Tampa especially which could affect the goals.
I don’t want to pick sides in this series but man I have a sneaky suspicion the Leafs get the job done here. No bet just due to the series going the way it has.
Wild vs Blues Bets:
Scott: Kaprizov looked great scoring twice in the 1st for a 2-1 Wild lead. But from there on it was all Blues who scored 4 unanswered and picked up the 5-2 win.
After winning 2 in a row the Wild have lost 2 straight and now face elimination on the road.
They are a good team and have no real weaknesses so they need to get a lead and keep it. It would be a shame for them to acquire the pieces they did at the deadline to have a 1st round exit.
Wild win incl OT
Ontario: 1.99 Odds at Sports Interaction
Rest of Canada: 1.99 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/12 9:47:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Happy to go with Kaprizov to score anytime again. Nicer price on it. They can’t seem to stop him scoring.
Ontario: 2.55 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.55 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +125 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.55 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/12 9:47:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Oilers vs Kings Bets:
Scott: The Kings scored 1st and held a 3-1 lead after the 2nd. The Oilers outscored the Kings 3-1 in the 3rd to force overtime but the Kings scored early in the extra frame and are up 3-2. The Kings now have a chance to advance on home ice.
McDavid and Draisaitl both had 3 points but it wasn’t enough. They need some secondary scoring. I have no idea who wins this game. Would say the Oilers but I’m skipping instead.
No Bet
Graeme: I think at the very best, you could say the Oilers have a 50/50 chance of winning this one. That makes the Kings odds tempting. Either way I think the top guys bring it. McDavid is 1.83 odds to go over 1.5 points. I’m going to go with the nice value on Draisaitl to go over 1.5 points. I figure if Connor goes over then chances are Leon does as well.
Ontario: 2.70 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.70 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +150 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.70 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/05/12 9:47:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
I looked over playoff results since 2017 and haven’t seen any particular trend for Games 6 or 7 to stray from the general OVER/UNDER pattern seen within series, and it was a strong trend across the league this whole regular season to go OVER 5.5. With that in mind:
Leans on all four games:
Full game OVER 5.5: Boston, Toronto, Minnesota
Weaker lean: full game OVER 5.5: Oilers
It wouldn’t surprise me if one game tonight stays under 6. We’ve seen 14 games this year so far where one team was shut out or scored just one goal, and we’ve seen a lot of puckline and lobsided games. 32 puckline differential games in the playoffs so far, with many flipflops of teams winning and then losing. Four teams face elimination tonight. With the way things have gone, I wouldn’t expect any team to feel safe with a 2-goal lead, and with the higher-scoring matchups, a 3-goal lead is not safe. That all encourages more goals until the game’s final seconds.
Ooh man! What a win for me the day before yesterday with Kaprizov Draisaitl and Mcdavit i took good money 🤑. Now i’m going with the wins of Leafs and Oilers ML both of them. Good luck to everyone!
Great!
I´m tailing you tonight because my NHL bets have sucked this season.
But I got a win today with my soccer bet thanks to VAR.
I had Real Sociedad-Cadiz BTTS but the game finished 3-0. Cadiz had a goal disallowed just before half-time. I´ve noticed this before that my bookie have this bug so it registered as a win. Ain´t that hilarious?
Good luck boys!