Written by Graeme on Friday, June 3rd, 2022
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Well it was a bit of a surprising result last night, as two nights on from scoring 6 goals, the Edmonton Oilers were shutout against the Avs backup goalie, Pavel Francouz.
When I had looked through the metrics for the series predictions, the one thing that really stood out to me was the Avs defensive metrics which I mentioned. How on paper they would limit the chances the Oilers would get, that it would be their toughest defensive matchup yet etc.
Then I was ready to throw that all out the window after Game 1. Oilers mustered up just a 1.22 xGF in that one and just 7 HDCF. This was the type of stats that honestly would have been expected by me based on the metrics for both teams for the season. So it will be interesting to see if Game 1 or Game 2 ends up being the anomaly.
We turn our attention to the Rangers vs Lightning series tonight. The New York Rangers got a massive 6-2 win in Game 1.
Rangers vs Lightning Bets:
Scott: After 9 days off the Lightning looked a little rusty. The Rangers looked great in game 1. Chytil scored twice and has been a big part of the Rangers success. He scored 8 goals in 67 games during the regular season but now has 7 in the 15 games this postseason.
As good as the Rangers played in game 1, The Lightning will be looking to get back on track now that they are back to playing consistently. I expect a better game from Vasilevskiy in game 2 also.
The Rangers have won a franchise record 7 straight home playoff games. I picked the Lightning to win the series and for that to happen they will need to win one in New York and end the Rangers streak.
Lightning win incl OT – 1.76 odds
Graeme: I’ve said it before – a lot during that Rangers vs Hurricanes series – but at this time in the playoffs, you stop really diving into metrics and just base bets based on surface level data.
Vasilevskiy – we know what we can do especially in game 2s or bouncebacks. The Lightning responded big after that drubbing by the Leafs.
I’m going with Lightning in Regulation at 2.35 odds. Based on how I feel about this game, if they win they should be taking it in regulation, not OT.
2nd Period OVER 1.5 goals.
I see that the number of shots against both the Rangers and Tampa have been trending upwards, yet both teams have advanced. That tells me effective “defense” is becoming more of a priority for teams, as expected in the playoffs. Teams with a great balance of offense and defense, will survive. Tampa, as good as it is, is in tough and the Rangers have what it takes to win this tonight, but not laying cash on it in any side/full game way.
I still think the OVER was the right call for Game 2 of the Oilers/Avs series. 7 goals is a far cry from 14. Everything and everyone was pointing to fewer goals in Game 2, and I certainly agreed, and the Avs showed up to contribute their portion. The Oilers being shut out raises alarm bells; 1) do they now have considerable play-through injuries to top players, and/or 2) did they relax in Game 2 to help players with play-through injuries recover, anticipating a far better general performance in Game 3 and the longer haul? We’ll never be told outright, but betting on Game 3 in any way is going to be prohibitive without much better information.