Written by Graeme on Monday, June 20th, 2022
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Well after Game 1, it was looking like this series would be a tight one.
After Game 2? Not so much.
Avs showed off their pace and they absolutely whooped the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-0.
It’s quite funny as it always provokes knee jerk reactions. While Avs are the strong favourites, people are basically saying to hand them the cup at this point.
As it is, they are actually underdogs for Game 3 which is held in Tampa. Just 1.16 to hoist the cup though.
Here are our thoughts:
Avalanche vs Lightning Bets:
Scott: Unreal. The Avalanche are a machine and outplayed the Lightning in game 2 winning 7-0 and out shooting them 30-17.
I thought this series was going to go 6 games but based on the way game 2 went I’m not so sure. The Avalanche are 7-0 on the road in these playoffs and have won 7 straight so the momentum is clearly on their side.
With the series moving to Tampa Bay the Lightning have to pick up a win and get back into the series or face getting swept at home. They need to get more shots on goal. Hedman had 2 shots in game 1 and 3 in game 2. I expect him to have a big game in game 3.
Hedman Over 2.5 shots for 1.71 odds
Graeme: I thought I would have a look more at the home ice advantage in the playoffs for these teams to see if it justifies Tampa being favourites.
I will say that Game 3s in this spot I normally like to back the home team. It’s a do or die game. If they don’t win here, they’re not winning the series. But then when I look at the odds it is like man – do Tampa have an answer for the Avs? At that price, Colorado seem nice.
When it comes to overall metrics, Avs are a beast. At home – yep, a beast. On the road? They drop a bit offensively from top 2 to about 4th-5th. Still very impressive.
Tampa at home we see a lot more HDCF/60 which is good for them. I mentioned during the Preds series that could be an issue for the Avs. Their HDGA/60 isn’t bad in the playoffs and actually it’s really good on the road. Despite the high danger chances created, Tampa just aren’t converting them like they should be. Only 10th best HDGF/60 in the playoffs.
End of day – um yeah, I’m not sure. Ha. Looking at the data I think there is definitely the chance for Tampa to get the win but the odds do seem pretty good. Avs are also quite tempting.
Honestly – after thinking about it, I’ll go with Lightning to win. My reasoning is that I always like to back a home team in Game 3 in this spot. This is their do or die spot and they have to give it their all. We know Vasy can bounce back with a vengeance. Colorado in the regular season were a much better home team than road team. Same with Tampa.
Yeah I feel fine betting Tampa tonight. But if you were looking to back the Avs don’t let me talk you out of it – I could just as easy back them here and justify it. I just like that whole do or die Game 3 type deal.
It’s been a very long time since I’ve seen such a lop-sided game in the finals. One of the games that I recall was when my Bs absolutely dummied the Nucks in gm 3 of the 2011 series 8-1. But at that point the Nucks were up 2-0 after two close games. The operative word here was “close.” The Nucks and the Bs were far closer in talent than these two teams.
In the past two games the Avs were a little rusty after the long rest but still prevailed in gm 1, but gm 2 they were just putting on a historic clinic, for which the Bolts had no answers. The champs are proud, experienced, well coached, great goalie, but they are not the better team–not by a long shot. I don’t see the Bolts making up that gap in two days, especially when you know the Avs are going to come out fired up. Ffs, Mackinnon isn’t even scoring and Kadri might be back.
Cooper said after the game: “they’re just playing at a much higher level than we are, I think that was evident tonight,” The Avs dominated to such a staggering degree that it is fair to question the league’s sitting dynasty as to how the heck they can win when the Avalanche is playing like a literal avalanche. You can never count out the champs, but it is very obvious that Tampa Bay has extremely serious issues dealing with both the Avalanche’s speed and their forechecking, and they clearly cannot beat Colorado at their own game—not to mention their inability to generate any kind of offense these first two games outside of self-inflicted Avalanche wounds and some momentary Kucherov wizardry.
We’ll probably see a closer game tonight, but at -110 I’m all over the Avs to try and make up some of that money I had put on the Bolts to win the series.
SDB
Adding Avs ml @ +100
Long time since I saw you here!
Avs in 5 ? Gonna Take the next match and end it at home. 😅
To WIN puckline: Avalanche
A lot of Lightning players are seriously banged up, including Hedman, who looks hamstrung now. Vasilevskiy and Point were not in this morning’s “morning” skate in Tampa (thank you, sports radio insiders!). The Lightning are being totally sidetracked while the Avalanche control the ice and power of play-making in every way. Vasilevskiy is not playing bad at all, he’s being approached repeatedly by fast tick-tack-toe and adept, hyper-active “finisher” players relatively close-in that force him to open the net. Tampa players look shell-shocked and clueless as to how to respond, to see goals go in and the shot counter so lobsided, matching the 200′ play, which is also so lobsided.
Colorado has had far more rest in the playoffs, a combined full week more, than Tampa, and that two-day rest in Colorado between games 1 and 2, put 100% of factors in their favor, and now we see the Avalanche at peak performance, with the bonus situation of dropping 5000′ in elevation now, and the Lightning aren’t equipped to deal with this. I don’t know where the Over/Under line should go, I think this gravitates to 5 goals minimum, it could go to 12, and after the first goal is scored, watch out! I can’t see the pathway back for the Lightning. They’ll attempt to adjust, but Avalanche take the Stanley Cup in four games.
I gotta say you make some great points. That’s how flip floppy I am – after reading this I’m like yep I like the Avs that much better.