Written by Graeme on Saturday, October 22nd, 2022
Follow @BetNHL
The Panthers unfortunately lost in overtime last night. Brayden Point stepped up big for Tampa, as did Vasilveskiy with 36 saves in that one. That was a brutal mistake by the Panthers to allow Point to be wide open for the game tying goal. Lightning took the momentum from that, and the Panthers just seemed to fizzle out.
I said yesterday if the Kraken could take their chances they could pull off an upset, and they were able to do so with a big 3-2 win over the Avs. xG there was pretty much on point there with the goals.
Hawks managed to pull off the win in their home opener but have certainly not earned my trust ha.
A big Saturday slate and a great day of sports. Soccer all morning. Then an early UFC and some NHL games. Then NHL and NBA at night. Looking forward to it. And also an afternoon race for the F1 tomorrow which is nice after having stayed up until 5am for the Japanese Grand Prix.
Let’s get into the games – Devils vs Sharks and Bruins vs Wild are early games. As a quick note I do my best Saturday mornings to get these out early enough but our mailing list software can be slow – so be sure to check the website for early games just in case.
Devils vs Sharks:
Devils come in on a two game winning streak after a struggling start. Sharks come in having ended a 5 game losing run to open the season, with that surprise OT win over the Rangers.
Doesn’t really feel like a big momentum shifter but you never know. They have been very poor to open the season. Devils feel they are getting more cohesive now.
I liked the game the Devils had against the Islanders. They were dominant, and remained strong throughout. Like I said maybe that Sharks win will shift momentum for them but Devils are a team that have looked really good their last two games and I’m backing that to continue here. Sharks advanced metrics are all rather dismal.
Devils win in Regulation
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -135 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/10/22 11:20:30 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Bruins vs Wild:
The Wild play their first road game of the season and it’s been a tough start for them.
I’m going to pass on this one. It’s just one of those weird games where I look at it, and the Bruins win actually makes a lot of sense especially considering the odds – but I can’t quite bring myself to advise it. Advanced metrics do back a Bruins win. Just concerned with the way both teams have been defensively. When you have two leaky defenses, things can get very crazy so coinflip odds are probably on the money for this one.
Oilers vs Blues:
Oilers got that big win over the Canes and now play their 5th home game in a row looking to go above .500. We haven’t seen the Blues enough this season for me to back anything here on a day with such a big slate. It’d have to be Oilers in regulation. Blues have only beaten inferior opposition and the Oilers are a step up.
Oilers made the change of RNH with Draisaitl and Hyman which worked out well.
Feels like Oilers should get the win but the way they are conceding goals at the moment, plus Binnington looking to be pretty solid right now and just the lack of data on the Blues – happy to skip.
Senators vs Coyotes:
After their surprise win over the Leafs, the Coyotes succumbed to the mighty Montreal Canadiens. They have been on the road all season so far and don’t get to play at home until Friday.
Senators have had a tough start to the season in terms of competition but racked up two wins at home over the Bruins and Capitals, with their offense coming to life.
The odds are iffy as we’d have to take Sens on the handicap. Coyotes have been slow starters to games. Senators also conceding like crazy at the moment. My concern is following the two wins over the Caps/Bruins we see a bit of overconfidence with Ottawa. Arizona have proven you don’t want to do that against them.
Actually the more I look at it – I’m going to go with Over 6.5 Goals incl OT/SO. My biggest concern about that would be if the Coyotes start good early. It’s been a bit of an issue with them – but the Sens were able to come back against the Caps and I’d hope they can do that here. These teams have a combined xGA of 7.34, and with the defensive metrics of the Sens I feel like Coyotes should be able to contribute some goals.
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -118 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/10/22 11:20:30 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blue Jackets vs Penguins:
Penguins on the road is always a big “ooof no” to me and it takes a lot to convince me. Penguins have been a good scoring team, and it’s nice to see all the points spread among the team. Jackets got a bit of momentum going and I will not be surprised if the Jackets pull off the upset.
Lightning vs Islanders:
This early in the season, happy to skip games involving teams on a B2B. Neither team is really screaming “take your money and bet on me” right now anyway.
Canadiens vs Stars:
Habs have been rather erratic to start the season. Stars looking solid. Habs looked good at home. Happy to skip although I feel like the Habs probably shouldn’t be as big underdogs as we are. Power play hasn’t been any good so far this year but that can change on a whim.
Jets vs Leafs:
Jets getting to play their 2nd home game of the season after beating the Rangers 4-1 on the 14th. Leafs really not doing well so far this year. The Leafs offensive metrics are of course very impressive. Not a team you ever really want to bet against. Not much I like in this game.
Capitals vs Kings:
Iffy start for the Capitals. Looked to be getting 3 in a row then after the 2-0 lead over the Sens, just completely took their foot off the gas. If you look at the xG from around the 15th minute mark until the last couple of minutes of the game you could print it out and use it as a level.
Caps probably should win this but I’m not sure how to rate the LA Kings yet. Some real high scoring, competitive games and coming off that Pens game we may see a lot of fight in them like the Wild one. Nothing for this game.
Predators vs Flyers:
Flyers with their first loss of the season away to Florida. It was on a B2B though and they still made it a competitive game. They’re huge underdogs at about 2.80 plus against the Preds.
You do worry if the new coach feel has worn off now. All it takes sometimes is one game.
Looking at the advanced metrics for both these teams so far this season, xG is about the same. Preds are much better in Corsi and Fenwick. Flyers interestingly have a very low HDGA/60 of 0.25. I’m sure that will balance out over the season but still interesting to note.
I was kind of hoping they would back up a Flyers bet here but alas, it’s not to be. I do think they shouldn’t be this high odds wise though. So if you take them it’s a gamble, but I’d say it’s an +EV gamble.
Knights vs Avalanche:
Knights are favourites here, but I just can’t buy into it. They’ve played a couple of the teams low in the power rankings and got the wins, plus the Jets who were on a B2B.
Avs of course stumbling a bit and on a B2B here. That performance was terrible.
Last season, they were slow to start but after they got going obviously did very well, and were a good bounce back team.
My gut says the Avs pull out the win here. It’s just hard to advise them based both off the B2B, and that dismal performance last night.
Flames vs Hurricanes:
Calgary suffered their first loss of the season to Buffalo on Thursday. The Canes also reeling after that Oilers loss.
This is just one of those games I have no interest in ebtting on, but really want to focus on it to see how both teams perform. If you go buy the advanced metrics – well the Canes always rock it there. I’d say they are a marginal play. You just have to wonder how this road trip and that first loss despite putting up 4 goals will wear on them.
Canucks vs Sabres:
Despite some great results so far, Buffalo are hefty underdogs at about 2.50 odds.
They have managed to beat both Calgary and Edmonton on the road.
Canucks are yet to win this season however it’s their home opener so I guess the bookies assume that will be a big factor.
Last season, Vancouvers home and away results were generally the same. 20-14-7 and 20-16-5.
The advanced metrics are a bit mixed, but with the Sabres offensive stats and the Canucks defensive stats, I’m a bit surprised Buffalo are such heavy dogs here.
I’m going to go with Buffalo Over 2 Goals – 3-Way here. This means they have to score at least 3. The metrics point to this being a good play.
Ontario: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -135 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/10/22 11:20:30 AM EST but are subject to change.)
boston 1st period +175
boston -1.5 +210
i’m missing something with this game based on the line prices. Wild has shaky goaltending and defense to start the season. Also have conceded tons of goals in the first and boston has gotten off to fast starts in their games. Minnesota has relied heavily on the powerplay and man advantage for their goals. Boston at 94.1 pk percent so something gotta give. plus i get ullmark who has been way better than swayman to start. Still need to see if minnesota has cleaned up their defensive woes and i’ve liked how bostons offense has looked.
That’s what I felt – that I had to be missing something. In my initial writeup for the game I actually had it penciled in as a play if Ullmark played (LWL had Swayman projected). A lot of it based on confidence in a goalie being a big factor, and it seems the Bruins at least have that confidence with Ullmark.
At this point it seems the sportsbooks were missing something.
Going back to over with the Bs. Last game with Anaheim was an anomaly for both teams. And there was no shortage of shots Bs 36 Ducks 31 either, so go figure. Anyhow, as pointed out in the tips, Wild are also prone to overs going o/u 4-0 so far. O6.5 and Bs ML
GLTA SDB
I consider these games tough calls for the most part and not touching much. The Boston game looks to be going Over in the early stages, but missed out on that, and not chasing an O7.5.
I don’t understand the favorite situation for Vancouver, who are playing bad. Buffalo is a WOW team right now, winning, extremely fast, confident and aggressive, I think there’s room for a Buffalo puckline win if you can find it, and certainly moneyline. The +1.5 seems like free money in the clear. Winning both games in Alberta, acclimatizing to the altitude and then dropping 3500′ to Vancouver to play a struggling team, with enough rest in the schedule so far to make this a sweet schedule, this is a recipe for a 6-2 Buffalo win who are focused, tuned-in and electric.
agree with the buffalo take. they’ve been a surprise team for me. And when you have a young team full of confidence they tend to ride that because they don’t know any better. I think it was a lazy line posted based on expectations and not actual results. Vancouver winning would not surprise me just to be clear. However i can’t imagine anything that would cause me more stress than having a Vancouver bet at minus odds. You could also attack this different ways based on level of confidence. Buffalo to win, Buffalo to possibly lose but keep it close, or what i’m thinking maybe even live bet. Hope vancouver takes the lead and then look at live odds on buffalo lol.
speaking to some of your write ups when i first saw how favored nj was i immediately looked for a reason to take the sharks. i even looked at the puckline at decent odds of -155. and then i also looked at the sharks advanced numbers and you are right they are bad. i just felt like the devils shouldn’t be that heavily favored vs anyone but taking them in regulation was probably the best way to attack that game and extract the most value so hoping you get the result.
also looked at the flyers because i thought that was too high as well. however coming into the year i was not a fan of the team talent wise. i think there’s a lot of mismatches at every position. i was never a fan of tort and don’t like his style of play either. i’ve found it to be unsustainable over the course of a full season because of the requirements needed to play it effectively. however speaking to the low HDGA/60, hart has played out of his mind. i could argue he’s responsible for all their wins. But will also say from what i’ve seen between games the flyers have played hard bought in and battled. Also couldn’t pull the trigger because i’m expecting them to come crashing down. i do believe they are priced too high based on the goaltending and results they’ve gotten.
also haven’t been impressed with the avs and have been impressed with vegas goaltender logan thompson. goaltending was my biggest concern entering the season for vegas but if thompson can do this for a full season, big if, and as you mentioned the competition vegas has faced which is a good point. last two games have been better competition with a 3-2 loss to the flames on the road no shame there and beating the jets 5-2 at home. really can’t wait to see more games to see what to expect out of georgiev and francouz. should get a better performance from avs off the result yesterday hoping there’s no fatigue. would not be shocked with an avs win either but did lean towards vegas in this spot. expecting a response from the avs and if they look flat i would be concerned. curious to see how thompson holds up against their fire power.
regardless of some of my results it’s nice to read write ups where someone reinforces some of the same things your looking at or mentions something that sparks a thought or angle. Which is really what i come here for. i’m not looking for you or anyone else here to provide me with nothing but winners on a daily basis, it’s too unrealistic an expectation. I like the logic or thought behind a play to see if it aligns or can be exploited in future similar situations. and to grumble about bad beats. Like chicago team total under. Also on days with so many games it’s hard to analyze everything so when someone makes a comment or responds to a take because they actually watched the games or saw news such as an injury or goalie starting it really is valuable to the rest of us.
Thanks it’s great to read this sort of reply and see all your thoughts like this. I always enjoy reading it. A few seasons ago was when we changed it to writing notes and thoughts about every game, and I much prefer that as it’s always interesting going back and looking at it all etc.
One resource I have found extremely valuable is all of those blogs that people write for their team. Like I spend a lot of time studying hockey, but I can guarant-damn-tee that the owner of https://www.fiveforhowling.com/ knows a LOT more than me when it comes to the Arizona Coyotes.
Those can be really important to read as they are people who do tons of in-depth analysis on their team etc. Well worth following all of them.
Couldn’t agree more with the blogs. Tons of insight and info. Game recaps and breakdowns. Highlighting certain players that may or may not be on your radar and their recent form. I like to use them on days when there’s only a few games going on. So when theres only 3 or 4 games i can spend more time on each team and really try to get a read on them beyond the surface stats that I rely on too heavily due to time constraints.