Written by Graeme on Tuesday, November 15th, 2022
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Disappointing 0-1 yesterday with a push.
We had Avs in regulation but they lost the game 3-2. Don’t really feel hard done by there – feel like Blues generally deserved the win. I had mentioned that their defense were stepping up lately but I felt the Avs, and their own improving offensive metrics, would be enough to overcome that. Alas, that was not the case.
Sens/Islanders over 6 was a push. Easily the right call, just didn’t work out. xG for that one was was combined 8.46 according to MoneyPuck. That’s hockey, and just a relief to get the push as that would have been one where I would have felt hard done by.
Usual fairly busy Tuesday slate let’s get stuck in – I’ve got an appointment shortly so write-ups will likely be short
Lightning vs Stars:
I mean Stars are generally better by most metrics. Overperforming goalscoring wise for sure. Tampa you don’t really know what to expect. Yeah I think the odds are on money here – with home/away I’d probably have Stars slight dogs too and over 6 seems about right too.
Canadiens vs Devils:
The Habs defensive metrics are just too bad to consider them. Devils though there’s been a few performances that have concerned me lately. I’m fine passing on this one.
Penguins vs Leafs:
Ew no. I mean Penguins just beat the Leafs in Toronto and are probably mathematically an okay play. But their goals conceded and defensive metrics are not something I wish to back.
Sabres vs Canucks:
The over is moving to 7 goal range so that ain’t really a play. The Sabres are better in most categories but the big issue for them is goaltending. Last 10, GA/60 4.10 and only xGA/60 of 2.77. Says it all.
Craig Anderson confirmed in net who has a decent record.
Eh – with the odds, I think a play on Buffalo is fine here.If Okposo ain’t in that isn’t helpful but not the end of the world. Their goalscoring has regressed but they still have the better offensive metrics.
Sabres win incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.92 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -108 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.92 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/11/15 11:29:17 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Panthers vs Capitals:
I think by the metrics, Panthers in regulation is an okay play here. Their Corsi For is out of this world at the moment in particular. But I am just not feeling it.
Blue Jackets vs Flyers:
I’m good to skip. Flyers can’t score, Blue Jackets can’t stop teams scoring. Recipe for disaster attempting to bet on this one.
Predators vs Wild:
50/50 odds is intersting. By the Last 10 on the metrics, both close in a lot of spots. Big difference is GA/60 where Preds concede a lot more but Wild score a lot less.
I mean Wild should be riding a win into this one. Granted they didnt outplay the Sharks or anything but man that double salvo near the end out of nowhere. Feels like they just took their foot off the gas.
I do kinda like the Wild here, but it just has that “too much a gamble” feel on it. It’s not like their road form has been bad or the Preds have been great at home or anything.
Ducks vs Red Wings:
Books have this line as a coinflip and that seems right to me. Offenses are poor so I don’t like the over. The defensive metrics across the board are poor. I can see this one going under based on the offenses. This is one where a month or so away I think I would back the under. I’m studying unders a lot more and this is the type of game where under 6.5 seems like a play.
Knights vs Sharks:
Nothing for this one. Would have to be Knights -1.5 and not loving that.
Hi guys what’s your record so far this year? I enjoy you site
Thanks. Stats are in the sidebar.
Oct ’22: 16-14 (+0.78u)
Nov ’22: 11-6 (+3.78u)
Full game OVER 6.0: New Jersey
To WIN moneyline: Vegas
Lean: full game UNDER 7.0: Philly
I am cautious considering bets on games where the public is going to be focused, and the Vegas game hits that qualification. Vegas “should” win (howls of laughter throughout the betting world). They’re playing great, are at home, just had 2 days off, and don’t have many injured players. If Vegas does show up to win, the Puckline is the result. UPSET material: but it’s “best vs bad” and if Vegas eases off, the puckline could be in immediate jeopardy, or even fall into a loss. Vegas’ next game is at home, and no distraction, no threat. They should be energized tonight? Thoughts?
Montreal seems to be trying the idea that scoring more goals will be good for them, and it has worked, so a more wide-open style of play will only drive the goal count higher against a goal factory like New Jersey.
My error yesterday in not taking into consideration the number of injured players with Colorado, a concern to carry forward.
I’ve made these exact two plays as well. Vegas puckline actually. Soon as I clicked confirm I felt a disturbance in the force.
Golden Knights -1.5
Habs – Devils Over 6.5 incl OT
Lightning – Stars Over 6.5 incl OT
Penguins incl OT
Panthers -1.5
Blue Jackets incl OT
Putting a 4/6, 5/6 and 6/6 system on this one.
I specially like that the winner bets are home teams.
I wanted to take Devils to win, but I’ve got a soft spot for Habs at home lately. Caufield is looking like a future star, and I can’t wait to follow his career.
Habs are over 6.5 in 6 of 8 games at home, Devils are over 6.5 in 4 of 6 games away. I’m expecting a lot of goals here.
Golden Knights is probably the easiest bet for me these days. So easy to win on this team. Sharks not looking good this season. Should be an easy -1.5 on Vegas.
Penguins aren’t as bad as you think. Specially at home (3-0-1-1). However, they’ve only had 5 home games, and their 2 losses are against a Kraken, who’s been immense away so far, and Bruins who’s one of the best teams so far this season.
Meanwhile Leafs lost 5 of 7 away games (2-0-2-3).
And Penguins won in Toronto 3 days ago.
Everything tells me the Penguins will win this, but they might need OT to do it. Luckily the odds are good enough for that.
The rest are just feelings. Blue Jackets cus Flyers have been overperforming, and they beat the Flyers 5-2 four days ago. Both teams have a lot of injuries at the moment, but I think the Jackets will repeat the win from four days ago.
Lightning average 7 goals per game at home, Stars 6 away. I have a feeling this is a 3-3 game that the Lightning wins in OT. Sometimes you just get a feeling that you can’t let go, and this is one of them for me. I can’t reason this one as well as the others, but I feel the Over 6.5 incl OT will hit.
Caps are looking bad away. They can’t seem to find the back of the net.
Panthers are probably the best home team in the league if they just convert their shots to goals, they just haven’t got going as well as they did last season yet. I’m fully expecting that to start happening soon, and this is the perfect game for it. Panthers at home, so Caps away, Panthers can score a lot, Caps seem to struggle scoring. All depends on the Panthers actually scoring on their shots. And tonight I think they will. -1.5 is perfect here.
Habs are funny as I remember just a week ago or maybe two weeks ago, saying something like by the metrics, there are going to be a good few spots to bet on them this season as dogs. I thought going into that one it might be an opportunity to do so but just wasn’t feeling it.
I had them +1 in regulation against the Penguins the other day, and that paid off. I think the home odds on them is too good to let go. 5 wins 3 losses, and the losses are to Stars, Wild and Golden Knights. 2 home wins against the Penguins, 1 was the Leafs, proving that picking them to win including OT at home is worth it.
For the next weeks I’ll pay attention to the away teams and the home odds. If the away teams played the night before and traveled a bit while Habs are rested and the home odds are good, I’ll keep betting on them incl OT.
I got a question by the way: Do you not like the Golden Knights? They’ve been winning so much lately, it’s free money betting on them.
Same with Bruins really. Both seem to be way more reliable this early compared to everyone else.
I love the Bruins and have backed them quite a few times this season. With the Knights, it’s more a case of they seemed very goalie dependent early in the season, overperforming in the metrics and they hadn’t played the best opposition overall. This Canada trip was interesting for them though as the goaltending dropped as expected but the offense showed they can still win games which is nice. I just remember that a fair amount of the games I wanted to back them the odds were too poor for me and I wasn’t confident enough in the -1.5.
Yeah, seems I’ve grown too confident in them too, now they go and lose again.
Time to go back to think of them like all the other teams.
Luckily Bruins are still pulling some decent odds against big name teams that aren’t performing well yet, so I’ll keep going with them until they hit a bad run.
Nj -170
Got them last night at 170. Montreal has been better at home. NJ has had an expected regression in terms of just how dominant they were in the advanced metrics. So acknowledging that I still expect the devils to win the Corsi Shots and expected goal metrics which i can’t ignore. Vanecek likely back however i will take a payout if schmid is starting.
Phi -110
Holding my nose and taking Philly. These two teams just played and the score line is deceptive with two empty-netters for the blue jackets. Hart with his slight bounce in performance but i do expect him to get back to form in this spot. Offense at a premium so give me the better goalie. Injuries abound to the blue jackets. No Laine, Kuraly, Voracek, Werenski, and Blankenburg all on IR. Along with Gudbranson and Johnson banged up for a team without much talent to begin with. Gimme Philly at even money.
Hey, just wanted to add my 2 cents on the Detroit Anaheim game. I’m a Wings fan, so my leans are perpetually biased in their favor, but we’re getting Bertuzzi back tonight and I think worth the risk at -1.5.
We’ve lost 3 in a row and I think we’ll get right like the Blues did last night. We still have almost twice as many points as the Ducks and are +20 in Goal Differential when compared with them. I don’t hate the under at 6.5 but I was able to get 3.1 on the puckline and I think we’ve been much better at special teams and empty net situations this year.
I could see it. This morning feels like a million years ago ha – but I do remember going into that one initially looking to back the Wings.