Written by Scott on Monday, November 28th, 2022
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No tips yesterday but there was 5 games.
The Jets hammered the Blackhawks 7-2. This was the Hawks 7th straight loss and they are ahead of only the Ducks in the Western Conference.
The Canucks beat the Sharks 4-3 in overtime. This was the Canucks 3rd straight win and the Sharks 3rd loss in a row.
The Kraken won their 5th straight when they beat the Ducks 5-4, Kaprizov had a goal and 2 helpers to push his point streak to 9 games and his Wild beat the Coyotes 4-3. The final game saw the Sens beat the Kings 3-2 in overtime.
6 games tonight. Let’s get to it.
Leafs vs Red Wings
Both teams playing well at the moment. The Leafs have won their last 3 games and the Wings their last 4.
The Leafs have a better ranked GAPG allowing only 2.57 per game but the Wings have the better GPG scoring 3.25.
With the Leafs missing 4 of their top 6 defensemen they have still managed to keep they goals against them down and have allowed 3 or less in their last 8 going 6-0-2 in those games.
The Leafs are favored here so a play on the Wings pays nicely. They have gone 7-2-2 in Detroit. The Corsi and Fenwick are basically the same so it’s a 50/50 game. So as long as Husso starts we feel it’s worth the play.
Wings incl OT/SO if Husso starts
Ontario: 2.40 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.40 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +140 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.40 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/11/28 8:18:46 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Knights vs Jackets
Both teams have are on a 2 game losing skid. On paper this is a huge mismatch. The Knights are 3rd in goals, 8th in shots on goal, 3rd in goals allowed and 8th in shots allowed. The Jackets in those same categories are 22nd, 26th, 32nd and 31st.
On the road the Knights are 9-1-1, at home the Jackets are 6-8.
The Knights are a better road team than they are a home team. I do like the Knights to win this game but we would have to take them -1.5. But they have dropped 2 against the Kraken and the Canucks. And the Jackets had their last game postponed so they have been off since Friday so they will be rested. Too many questions about this game.
Devils vs Rangers
The Devils have won their last 2 and the Rangers have dropped their last 2.
The Devils are still at or near the top in the important stats and the Rangers are pretty high up too.
The Devils are 9-1 on the road and the Rangers are 4-4-3 at home.
It’s really hard to bet against the Devils. They are 18-4 this season but the Rangers are a team that can do damage and will once they get their shit together.
I’ll regret this I’m sure but I’m skipping this one. I want to take the Devils but I just can’t.
Lightning vs Sabres
The Lightning are 6-3-1 over their last 10. They are middle of the league in most stats.
The Sabres seemed like they were turning the corner after they snapped their 8 game losing skid by winning 2 in a row but lost their last game to the Devils. They are 2-8 over last 10.
I like the Lightnings chances for this game but the Sabres are a pain to try and predict. The Lightning pick would have to be in regulation but 2 of their last 5 games needed extra time so not confident in that play.
Stars vs Blues
The Stars have gone 4-3-3 over their last 10 games but come into this game after losing their last 2.
The Blues beat the Panthers 5-4 in OT in their last game and will looking to end the month on a winning streak. They have gone 8-2 over their last 10 keeping all opponents to 3 goals or less in all but 3 games, the two losses and the overtime win against the Caps.
This should be a good game between two teams who are Central Divison foes.
With the Blues play of late I would say that they would be the safer play here. But their home record is that good, 5-4, and the Stars have had a good season so far.
I think it’s best I skip this game.
Panthers vs Oilers
Tough to predict a game when both teams are underachieving at the moment.
The Panthers are 4-4-2 over their last 10 and are 4-6 on the road. The Oilers are also 4-6 over last 10 and 5-6 at home.
The Panthers last 6 games have been high scoring hitting at least 7 goals and their last game against the Oilers was a 4-2 win hitting 6. The Oilers last game was a 4-3 win against the Rangers before that they were shutout by the Isles and before that they had 2 games that hit 7.
I see this game as a close one so can’t predict a winner. I liked the over but it’s set at 7 which is just too high for me so I’m skipping this one.
Devils -110
The Rangers best win this year has been what? Prolly the first game of the season when they beat Tampa Bay 3-1. Other than that maybe the 8-2 score line vs Detroit. They have losses to the Sharks, Jackets, Ducks, Jets, Redwings, Predators. All teams they should be favored against and beat. Teams that have played well either by our expectations or even by surprise they haven’t fared well against either. Two losses to the Islanders, The Kraken, The Avs and most recently the Oilers at home.
Then of course the team I can closest compare this potential matchup to. And that would be the Bruins. I remember taking the Bruins at pretty much same odds as I’m getting the devils at here. And what’s really changed? The Rangers are still looking like the exact same team they were then while this Devils team has not let up at all. The Rangers can def win this game so a devils loss wouldn’t be shocking. However the Rangers really haven’t done it yet or very often this season but are still getting priced with too much respect based on potential.
We have one team who’s been pretty dominant and getting legitimate results being priced almost equally to a team that has underperformed against all opponents and has fared even worse against top teams so far this season.
On a day where nothing really jumps out to me, Give me the Devils money line at -110.
If Rangers come with Shesterkin in net, I see value for overtime
Classic spot where public will go for the Devils and the Rangers will win. It’s one of these spots where the match smells. The Rangers at home will shake the Devils.
“Rangers at home will shake the Devils.”
Devils on road 9-1-0
Rags @ home 4-4-3
What am I missing?
Nothing… you are right. But this looks like the public bet of the day.
I have bad vibes on this match. I was willing to go for the Devils – I love their season, but the Rangers is the kind of nasty teams to screw such spots.
Let’s see after the match if I was right. Personally, I don’t want to bet against the Devils, so, I skip.
A little bit yeah, at the same time, it’s a big divisional game. The beauty of the Devils run is that they haven’t been having a ton of mental lapses and are just hungry to keep things going. Even if they have a tougher start, they’ve been getting to their game pretty quickly when that’s happened in the past. Rangers on the other hand have trouble putting together that 60 minutes. They might even be missing their Fox-Lindgren pair for this game. Definitely one where I’m fine laying off on the Devils, but still not comfortable betting against them by any means.
I would have to respectfully disagree. As a Ranger fan who lives in New Jersey the devils aren’t a public team. The rangers are. The line has also moved to Rangers -120, but being at work I can’t really know if that’s public, sharp or some type of injury news. I’m assuming Vanecek is starting and if he doesn’t then i don’t like my bet but I can’t stay on top of it being at work. Also as a rule of thumb I put another unit on the Devils at even money because I see nothing that caused the line move and if i liked them -110 I should like them even more at even money. I also would not be surprised with the Rangers showing up and winning, I just have not seen it up to this point and I see value in the Devils who have performed and no value in the Rangers who are being priced based on what they should do rather than what they have done.
I will also add the Rangers moving to -120 does concern me because I can’t explain it. I would have to assume that’s sharp action not public and if so would mean there’s something I don’t know. They only thing I could think is possible regression. It’s hard for to understand why the Rangers at under .500 would be at a 55 percent expected win rate playing a team with 4 losses on the season. And it can’t be the fact they are at home. As the Rangers away record is currently better and the Devils are 9-1 on the road. Also the close proximity does not make this a difficult travel spot. Still gotta go with the devils and if i’m wrong maybe i can learn from it
For what it’s worth, Leafs 5v5 fenwick in 1 goal games is significantly better than the Wings (~52% vs ~46%).
Personally out of all the fancies, I like that stat the best since it indicates possession when games are tight and teams aren’t complacent on big leads or getting chances when the other team took their foot off the gas.
Still a close game, special teams are close and Leafs have had a demanding schedule of late. But the Leafs are better 5v5 in my opinion.
dega wad labasch tu
Sorry, what is fenwick?
Fenwick is unblocked shot attemps. Basically a metric to indicate possession, but as opposed to corsi, also taking into account a little bit of the shooters ability to get the puck through and negating the luck factor with blocking shots in general.
Agreed. How are things bud, haven’t seen much of you of late?
Good man. Been busy with work. Always lurking around here and there though. How about them Bruins huh?
Thank you Scott
Respectfully, I disagree with your Red Wings pick here. I get the EV+ but Detroit still ranks significantly lower than Leafs in Corsi, Fenwick and goal diff. Yes, Red Wings have won 4 in a row, but look who they’ve beaten:
Yotes 7-10-3
Preds 9-9-2
CBJ 7-12-1
Sharks 7-13-4
Not exactly murderer’s row.
On the other side, the Leafs have won L5 road games vs teams with winning records:
Pens 2x
Canes
Wild
Devils
Murray vs Husso. Both good goalies. I’ll take Leafs ML -150 all day long in this clash of the Original Six.
Devils ML – This is a huge mismatch. Devils are 9-1-0 L10 vs Rags 4-4-2 L10 and lead in every major stat category. Vanecek will almost certainly be in net with his 8 GA in L5. -115 is a steal and I can’t understand why Rags are getting so much respect.
Knights vs CBJ – Speaking of EV+ the Jackets are tempting at .5u. Personally, I’m staying away but the Knights have been terrible.
GLTA SDB
Last night I lost on Wild -1.5. They were terrible in the last period.
A couple of days ago I lost a huge bet on Panthers when they got stomped in the last period. I couldn’t believe my eyes! I had Panthers on regulation as the only game that missed on a 5 game accumulator worth 5 grand. Panthers at home, up by 3 before last period.. Should have been a walk in the park.
Needless to say, I’m betting against them now. Oilers in regulation!
Blues are on a roll at home, Stars only beat crap teams away (including the worst team of them all – Panthers).
Blues in regulation
Devils are on fire. Rangers aren’t, and specially not at home. I’d actually consider Devils -1.5 here, but the odds are great at Devils in regulation so let’s go with that.
Jackets vs Knights.. I just have a hunch, and I like these hunches. I think this will be a very high scoring game! Over 6.5 in regulation
Tampa are looking good, and Sabres are shockingly bad lately. Yes, they got 2 recent wins, but that’s 2 wins and 8 losses in their last 10. And the wins were against Habs and Blues. And when Sabres lose, they usually lose by 2 or more. Tampa -1.5
Wings – Leafs.. Let’s go result betting: 7-10!
I think Leafs will win this. Wings only won at home against bad opponents. Islanders is the only exclusion.
Leafs in regulation