Written by Scott on Tuesday, November 29th, 2022
Follow @BetNHL
6 games yesterday and we had 1 tip.
I had the Wings to beat the Leafs if Husso started. He started but was pulled after the Leafs scored 4 times by the halfway point of the game. The Leafs won 4-2. It was a loss but the Wings had a chance and the odds made it worth the risk.
I said I would regret not taking the Devils and I do as they beat the Rangers 5-3. The Knights beat the Jackets 3-2 in a shootout, the Lightning beat the Sabres 6-5 in OT and the Oilers beat the Panthers 4-3 in OT.
A busy night with 9 games. It’s hard to believe that we are already 1/4 of the way through the season.
Lightning vs Bruins
The Lightning played and won last night in OT. Stamkos and Point both scored twice. They are 7-3 over their last 10 and have won their last 2.
The Bruins have been incredible this season.
They played each other last Monday and it was the Bruins winning 5-3 in Tampa Bay.
Ullmark has been cleared to play after getting injured on Friday.
With the Bruins at home and have a win against the Lighting on the road already I don’t see a reason not to back them.
If Ullmark starts Bruins in regulation
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -110 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/11/29 9:34:25 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Sharks vs Canadiens
Either team has given me a reason to back them.
The Sharks have lost 3 in a row, 4-5-1 over last 10 and are on the road where they have gone 5-5. The Habs have won 2, are 6-4 over last 10 and at home this season they have gone 6-5.
Nothing I like from this game.
Hurricanes vs Penguins
The Canes have lost their last 3 road games and have gone 3-3-4 over their last 10. The Pens are playing well at the moment going 7-2-1 over their last 10 games.
On the road the Canes have gone 6-3-4, at home the Pens have gone 4-3-1. The Canes are in 3rd in the Metro and the Pens are in 4th.
The odds are basically a coin flip here which seems about right with it being the 3rd and 4th place teams in the Metro.
Islanders vs Flyers
The Isles have been playing well of late. They are on a 4 game win streak and have gone 7-3 over their last 10.
The Flyers have lost 10 straight and have looked terrible for most of the season with their 3 game win streak to open the season the exception.
With the home team doing so bad it’s tough. The away team is favored and I would have to take them in regulation. Of the Flyers 10 games on this skid they have had 3 of them go to overtime so I have to pass on this one.
Avalanche vs Jets
The 3rd place Avs are 8-2 and the 2nd place Jets 7-3 over the last 10 games.
The Avs road record is 7-3, the Jets home record is 7-2. This should be a good game.
With the home and road records for each team basically the same, both teams averaging over 3 goals per game and both in top 10 in GAPG it’s a tough one to predict.
I am leaning towards an Avalanche win but I can’t make it a tip with the way the Jets have been playing.
Ducks vs Predators
Ducks have been horrible this year and are in last place overall.
The Preds are basically .500 for the season going 9-9-2.
On paper this should be a Preds win and due to having 2 games postponed they haven’t played since last Wednesday.
I would have to take the Preds in regulation and even that just barely gets over our minimum. Easy skip for me
Panthers vs Flames
These teams played back on November 19th and it was the Flames winning 5-4 in a shootout. Since that win the Flames have gone 1-2-1 and the Panthers 1-1-1.
This will be another good game and I’m sure the Flames home fans will let Tkachuk hear it.
Both teams on losing skids, the Flames 3 and the Panthers 2.
Tough to predict this game and the Tkachuk return makes it even harder. I thought about the over as the last game between these two hit 9 but the stats for each team don’t really back that up.
Capitals vs Canucks
Both teams have had some struggles this season.
The Caps are 9-11-3 and are in 6th place in the Metro. The Canucks are 9-10-3 but are riding a 3 game win streak into this game.
Sure the Canucks are on a winning streak but I’m still not convinced by them. The Caps are still banged up so they are hard to predict. I’m skipping this game.
Kraken vs Kings
It’s the 2nd and 3rd place teams in the Pacific here.
The Kraken have been a nice surprise team so far this season. They 8-1-1 over their last 10 and are on the road where they have gone 7-1-1.
The Kings have gone 5-3-2 over their last 10 and are 6-4-1 at home.
They have played twice this season with the Kraken winning both.
With the Kraken on a 5 game win streak and on the road where they have gone 7-1-1 I like their chances here. Plus they have already beaten the Kings twice this season.
Kraken win incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.03 Odds at Sports Interaction
Rest of Canada: 2.11 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +111 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.11 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/11/29 9:34:25 AM EST but are subject to change.)
I have quite a problem posting good tips because before I have all the data, I often fall asleep.
Now I have the time and data to look at games from yesterday.
Take a look at the goalies, the odds and the outcomes from yesterday.
The goalie data is biased with data from last night, but it shouldn’t do much.
Vegas Golden Knights at Columbus Blue Jackets
score 3-2 (SO)
odds 1.40 3.00
goalies Thompson
W-L: 12-4-0
GAA: 2.44
SV%: 0.921
vs Tarasov
W-L: 2-3-1
GAA: 3.17
SV%: 0.912
score by gaa: 3-2
No value.
New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers
score 5-3
odds 1.95 1.87
goalies Vanecek
W-L: 11-2-0
GAA: 2.11
SV%: 0.923
vs Shesterkin
W-L: 10-4-3
GAA: 2.58
SV%: 0.913
score by gaa: 3-2
Value?
Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings
score 4-2
odds 1.61 2.40
goalies Murray
W-L: 5-1-1
GAA: 2.43
SV%: 0.927
vs. Husso
W-L: 9-3-3
GAA: 2.58
SV%: 0.912
scory by gaa: 3-2
Value (live betting)?
Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres
score 6-5 (OT)
odds 1.57 2.45
goalies Elliott
W-L: 5-1-0
GAA: 3.62
SV%: 0.886
vs Luukkonen
W-L: 1-1-1
GAA: 4.26
SV%: 0.845
score by gaa: 4-4
OT?
Dallas Stars at St Louis Blues
score 4-1
odds 1.91 1.91
goalies Wedgewood
W-L: 5-4-1
GAA: 3.07
SV%: 0.906
vs. Binnington
W-L: 9-8-0
GAA: 3.05
SV%: 0.9
score by gaa: 3-3
OT?
Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers
score 3-4 (OT)
odds 1.91 1.91
goalies Knight
W-L: 6-3-3
GAA: 2.74
SV%: 0.914
vs Skinner
W-L: 5-5-0
GAA: 2.8
SV%: 0.919
score by gaa: 3-3
OT?
Good luck guys.
Ah one more thing.
If you look just at SV%, you get the last ~10 nhl games correct predicted. Every goalie with higher SV% won (including overtime).
Tampa Bay +150
I obviously like this much better if it’s Swayman who still has a good chance to start. Tampa purposely played Elliott yesterday to have Vasilevskiy start this game with some revenge on their mind. 5 goals in regulation by Tampa yesterday shows me the offense for the most part is clicking. I believe they’ve hit 4 or more goals in 7 of their 12 games in November and obviously will wanna close out the month strong. Swayman besides one start vs the Redwings where he allowed one goal on 29 shots hasn’t been good. He did allow only one goal in another game. But it was vs the blackhawks who the bruins held to 18 shots. 3 goals allowed vs Arizona, 6 vs the Sens, 4 more vs Florida in his last actual start. The two advanced metrics I look at for goalies he’s below average in as well. Tampa 6-4 road record is ok, 7-3 last 10. Boston can’t go undefeated at home…err..right? As u can see by the write up the play is heavily driven by Swayman starting and Tampa Bay being priced at just a 40 percent chance to win this game. I mean come on guys! They at the VERY LEAST have like a 44.7 percent chance to win. Prolly by some gimmicky shootout snapping Bostons undefeated home record but not Ullmarks. Which will then anger the bruins into starting a whole new record or something.
Also if this continues to climb which i fully expect it to be all Boston, and I completely understand, I’ll place another unit on Tampa Bay. They’ve already jumped from -165 to -175 since the overnight.
Oh yeah if Ullmark does start….I got nothing.
Gimme Tampa Bay +150.
Tampa ML