Written by Scott on Monday, December 19th, 2022
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We had one tip yesterday.
We had the Jets to win the race to 3 goals against the Kraken. The Kraken hit 3 goals first so we lost this one. This was a close game that saw the Jets leading 2-1 after the 2nd but the Kraken scored twice in the 3rd for the 3-2 win.
The Rangers pounded the Blackhawks 7-1. It sucks as a Hawks fan but for the Rangers to have a big game like that and get goals from 7 different players will help them moving forward.
The Canes beat the Pens 3-2, the Wild beat the Sens 4-2 and the Flames beat the Sharks 5-2.
Congrats to Argentina on winning the World Cup and congrats to Lionel Messi on finally getting his first.
8 games tonight.
Stars vs Jackets
The Stars are favored here and I get it. The Jackets have lost their last 3.
Luckily for them their schedule eases up on them with games against weaker teams coming up. They play the Flyers and then the Blackhawks before Xmas.
But can they beat the Stars who are 6-2-2 over last 10 and have good offensive stats so far this season. They are 4th in GPG, 5th in shooting percentage and have the 3rd best faceoff.
We have to take the Stars in regulation and as the road team I’m not as comfortable doing that.
Wings vs Capitals
The Wings have had a rough December. They have lost their last 5 games and have gone 2-6-2 over their last 10 games.
The Caps are 7-2-1 over last 10 and Ovechkin has gone 2 games without a goal. The next time he scores is going to be a special moment as he will tie Howe for 2nd most of all time.
With the Wings recent play and the Caps scoring more, allowing less and at home, I’ll take them here.
Caps win in regulation
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -135 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/19 9:09:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Panthers vs Bruins
This should be a good game. The Panthers are in 4th in the Atlantic and need points and now to try and gain some ground on the teams in front of them.
The Bruins are still playing great. They are the #1 team in the league. They are 2nd in goals per game and 1st in goals against.
At home the Bruins have yet to lose in regulation. I have taken them to win in regulation at home twice and both times they won but in OT.
Can’t do that again so I have to skip this game.
Oilers vs Predators
Both teams come into this game on losing skids. The Oilers have dropped their last 2 games and the Preds have lost 6 straight.
I never trust the Preds and when they have lost 6 in a row there’s even more reason. But the Oilers haven’t shown what they are capable of.
I want to take the Oilers here and I will personally, but against the Preds it’s not one I will make an official tip.
Islanders vs Avalanche
Both teams are 4-5-1 over their last 10. The Isles score more per game than the Avs but the Avs allow less than the Isles.
They played in October and the Isles won 5-4, and now that they are without MacKinnon it’s going to make things tougher for the Avs here.
The Isles have 3 more points than the Avs do but have played 3 more games.
I could see this game going either way.
Sabres vs Knights
The Sabres are on a 3 game win streak heading into this game. But the Knights are no pushover and should give the Sabres a run here.
The Sabres are 6-2-2 and the Knights 6-4 over last 10. On the road the Sabres are 8-6, at home the Knights 8-8.
I just don’t know about this game. I go back and forth about both but can’t pull the trigger.
Canadiens vs Coyotes
I can’t find anything I like for this game.
Both teams are 3-6-1 over the last 10 games.
Easy skip for me.
Blues vs Canucks
The Blues are on a 3 game winning streak. But looking at their numbers and its surprising. They are 22nd in GPG, 27th in GAPG, 25th in shots in goal per game and 21st in shots allowed per game.
The Canucks are 4-3 this month but all 4 of their wins needed extra time.
Both teams are around .500, the Blues 15-15-1 and the Canucks 13-14-3 so there is no really advantage there. I’m skipping.
Bos in regulation-115
Boston has faced the Panthers twice so far and split the first two games. However looking at the advanced metrics in the 5 on 5 play, and I’ve seen Boston finish positive in both matchups. We can expect variance at times, the team with the better stats doesn’t always win. But I believe we got the variance in the second game when the Panthers won 5-2. It was a game that saw 5 powerplay goals combined plus an empty netter accounting for 6 of the 7 goals. Boston has the third best powerplay and the best penalty kill. The Panthers currently rank 26th on the Power Play and have gone just 1 for 15 over their last 5 games. Barkov will also be out for them further putting the Panthers at a disadvantage. Through roughly 82 minutes of even strength play we’ve seen Boston finish positive in Corsi, Fenwick, Shots, Expected Goals and Scoring Chances. I don’t know what changes here.
Buffalo race to 3 goals +180
Who’s got the best GF/PG in the league? That would be Buffalo at 3.97. This does not drop significantly on the road either as they are tied for 3rd at 3.93. Who’s got the best Road GF/PG? That would be Vegas with a nice 4.12 average. Who’s got the worst HOME GF/PG though? That would be the very same Vegas team who only averages 2.38 goals per game on Home ice. Does it make sense? Can I explain it? Nope. But I can try and have some fun and ride the trend at +180 odds. Vegas hasn’t scored 3 or more goals in 6 straight home games. And 9 of its last 11 games at home have seen them fall under the 3 goal mark. Still no Eichel for Vegas but it looks like Stone will play. Also we might get Luukkonen for Buffalo in which case this for fun bet is probably dead in the water. Also Buffalo doesn’t play again until Friday, so let’s hope they get their Vegas partying in after tonight’s game and not before.
Buffalo race to 3 goals +180
Panthers-Bruins over 5,5
Caps TT over 3 regulation
Draisaitl 2 points