Written by Graeme on Saturday, December 31st, 2022
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A 1-0 night last night.
The Canes got the win in regulation with ease against the Panthers.
Skinner was a factor as expected against the Kraken, but the Oilers put that one over for anyone who backed it.
Devils offense came alive as I figured would happen at some point soon. Was kind of hoping they’d keep stumbling until that West Coast trip where there’d be some nice value.
Big win for the Preds.
Let’s get onto Saturdays big slate – writeups will be short unless I have a tip on the game due to time constraints.
Bruins vs Sabres:
Bruins come in performing well. Buffalo also come in with a good winning streak, although the opposition hasn’t really been the same. No surprise then, Boston are heavy favourites.
Not seeing anything in this one.
Blue Jackets vs Blackhawks:
Two terrible teams. Jackets favourites at about 1.74. Probably just because they are at home. By the metrics, it’s very 50/50. Jackets you can give them the edge in offense, but they lose it in defense and goals against.
If Laine is back I’d say slight edge to Jackets but the odds reflect that. No play.
Golden Knights vs Predators:
Happy to skip due to inconsistency, and the torrid play of both at times plus Preds on a B2B. I wouldn’t favour the Knights as heavy as the books have them but looking at the metrics they should be favourites.
Capitals vs Canadiens:
The only play here really is if you can back the Caps -1.5. When they win in regulation, they cover that usually. When Habs lose in regulation, they lose to 2 or more.
Montreal should be scoring more, Caps should be conceding more. But the Caps are able to take their chances well and should be good for at least 3.
Looks like enough to go with Capitals -1.5 as even if Montreal get the goals that I could see, Caps should still be able to get a couple more. Caps are usually fine on the bounce back. That Sens game was a bit mental but hopefully causes them to come out here with no complacency.
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/31 10:40:26 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Kings vs Flyers:
LA should not be as heavily favoured here as they are. One of those games where I can’t advise a play as I don’t feel confident it will come in, but feel there is decent value on the Flyers.
Lightning vs Coyotes:
Coyotes coming in with two big wins over Leafs and Avs. Tampa stumbling a tad after a good run. But even Tampa -1.5 isn’t really a play here odds wise. The over 6 is tempting. The only stats against it really are Tampas GA/60 and SCGA/60.
I assume Vasilveskiy will be in net. He’s the factor. So let’s go with Over 6 goals if Elliott in net incl OT/SO and hope Andrei stubs his toe or something.
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.05 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/31 10:40:26 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blues vs Wild:
Bookies have Wild as favourites at about 1.76. Seems right on the money.
Red Wings vs Senators:
I kinda feel like a play here is Sens to win the race to 3. At 2.15 I feel slight value on that as I think they score 3, and I’d say it’s 50/50 them or Wings get it. So yeah value is there. Problem is a low SCGF/60. Being on the road makes it a bit iffy too although Sens did put 6 past them a couple weeks ago. Just not enough for me here I think.
Avalanche vs Leafs:
I would like to take the Leafs here but the odds and last few road performances just enough to put me off.
Stars vs Sharks:
Stars come in on a tear. In regulation odds are barely playable. Sharks offense performing better than them last 10 but the Stars should start getting more goals in and we’re seeing them do just that at the moment.
Sharks don’t have the worst xGA/60 but brutal SCGA/60. Stars still a low SCGF/60 although it’s getting better. Sharks xGA/60 is below 3 – comparing Stars results to similar teams it’s a bit mixed.
Think Stars can get the job done but just not sure about the handicap – which is what I was exploring. Sharks concede half the time they play with an empty net, and Stars playing against have scored 10 in 17.
So if you want to go with in regulation it’s fine, but I’m going to go with Stars -1.5 if Oetinnger in net. I believe he is.
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.08 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +108 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.08 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/31 10:40:26 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flames vs Canucks:
Lean on the over here. Both teams putting up over 3 goals last 10. Canucks conceding a fair bit more! This has the potential to be a banger actually with the Canucks high SCGF/60 and SCGA/60. Just a case of whether the Flames will play along or not.
Unfortunately they really haven’t these past few games have they? So I dunno the metrics make the over a play here, but I just can’t trust the Flames offense to really bring it. But ugh – they really should man.
But actually the Flames at home are doing 3.28 GF/60 and 13th bet. There’s enough here that I gotta go with it.
Over 6.5 Goals incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.99 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.99 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2022/12/31 10:40:26 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Oilers vs Jets::
Not seeing much here.
Thank you Graeme and happy new year to you and Scott
Bs and Sabres is a great match-up. Both teams playing well and the Sabres will be coming into the garden with a lot of confidence. Every team in the league has their Bs games circled-who doesn’t want to beat the league’s best team? This is going to mean a tight game, no blowouts this afternoon. I’m betting under 6.5. Wouldn’t be a bad call to throw a little on a tie in reg either.
Buffalo Sabres +220 half unit
This is not my favorite play so I wasn’t crazy with leading off with it. The main factor in the handicap is the spot for Buffalo here. The league did Boston no favors with the scheduling , and if there’s any team that has to feel like they didn’t get a holiday break, I can argue it’s the Bruins. A Home/Road Back to Back right before the holidays, followed by a trip to Canada then back to the States for a Road/Road Back to Back coming right out of the Christmas break. Now an afternoon game vs an opponent who’s played just 2 games in the last 13 days. An opponent who’s 1st in GF/PG and has won 7 of their last 10 and 5 straight. Of course after that Boston begins to prep to host another afternoon game for the Winter Classic vs the Pens. And then right after that they get to pack their bags for their 3 game West Coast trip.
There are obvious concerns hence the half unit here. Boston is Boston and they’ve proven to be a powerhouse all season. It’s one thing for Buffalo to put up 9 vs Columbus, 6 vs the Kings, 5 vs Arizona and 6 more vs Detroit. But what can they do against the best teams in the league? I’ve seen them drop the back to back vs the Pens and Bostons another level above. I do think Buffalo was hard done there though and deserved a split by how they played. But I have to keep in mind they are just a .500 team currently.
Boston holds a big edge in face offs and while that’s not the greatest factor, they could control possession and frustrate Buffalos offense by trying to take the air out of the game. Which could look similar to the stifling defense Carolina just executed vs Florida that I saw in action yesterday. Also Buffalo does have a back to back tomorrow so they’ve decided to roll with Luukkonen here. While he’s played better over his last 4, the quality of opponent is not the same as Boston. I sung the Sabres praises for being 1st in GF/PG but the team right behind them in 2nd is the Bruins. Much different then banged up Vegas, banged up Colorado and Detroit. Also the shot totals against are concerning and they cannot allow Boston to shoot 40 times like they’ve allowed 2 of his last 4 opponents. That being said I get Swayman here as well not Ullmark.
When handicapping I made the line Boston -203. They’re currently priced at -260 and I just think there’s value in getting Buffalo at +220 in this spot. I’m looking for weaknesses and down spots for a team with very few. But I believe today can be the perfect storm for Buffalo to come out with a jump and then hold on down the stretch or win via an overtime or shootout like we’ve seen a few teams be able to do vs Boston. I also would not fault Boston if they’re checked out or flat.
1st period lines are intriguing as well assuming the game script is correct. Buffalo to win the first period both on the three way line at +290 or the draw no bet at +160 both have some value.
Buffalo +220 half unit.
Washington -1.5 at -105
When going thru the games and getting to this Montreal vs Washington game, Washington on the Puck Line was circled and it remained one of my more confident picks. So nice to land in line with one of your plays.
Montreal just 8 of their 15 wins have come in regulation and I just couldn’t project this game requiring overtime. Washington, if I did the math right, has had 14 of their 20 wins come by more than 1 goal. Montreal just 1 of their 18 regulation losses by 1 goal.
Concern only is if Jake Allen starts for Montreal, I’ve seen him steal more than a few wins for the Canadiens that they had no business getting. Two games vs the Flames immediately come to mind. I don’t imagine him stealing a win here, but needing the extra goal there’s a snowballs chance he could be a factor in the play failing to cash. He does have enough duds mixed in there as well, so aside from any heroics I like the play.
Random Thoughts and Rants
LA Kings
Reading your write ups the one I differed most about in my handicapping was the Kings. I made them a -213 which was nearly dead on the -215 they opened at. It HAS to be Copley in net for them though for me to feel that way, I want nothing to do with Quick. Copley is an average goalie performance wise but he’s given them stability at their most glaring weakness. Even if he falters some going forward, I don’t know if the Flyers are the best team to take advantage of it. Unfair for me to judge Ersson on two starts for the Flyers. But I know Sandstrom is not the answer. And neither goalie is Carter Hart who the Flyers couldn’t win many games for either.
The Kings Penalty Kill is brutal, and even worse if you actually watch it in action. So the Flyers should get chances to score. I also have seen their 5 on 5 goals tick up recently. However they’ve only outscored 1 of their last 10 opponents in 5 on 5 play wasting the positive results which surely will be difficult for them to maintain.
I keep seeing a Kings win with the score line 4-3 (5-3 if they can get the empty net)
Tampa Bay
I made them a -244 and knew I would be low when I got around to checking actual lines. I was off by about 7 percent when they opened -360. The best I could come up with for most value, while sacrificing some variance, would be Tampa Bay wins the race to 3 goals. Comes in at just -205 and could be a piece in a two leg parlay if people are confident in another play out there. Vejmelka has conceded 3 or more goals in 18 of his 25 games played (72 percent) and faces a Tampa Bay team at home. Assuming Vasilevskiy, he’s been sharp in December only conceding more than 2 goals once.
St. Louis
I liked the idea of getting the Blues at home at plus money. I think the wrong team is favored. Looking at my break downs and they looked a lot closer than what I would have expected. Ultimately this didn’t make the cut though. Seeing injuries to Kyrou, Krug and Tarasenko would require me to monitor their lineup too closely. Looks like Kyrou will play but still no word on Tarasenko as of writing. Also Binningtons play doesn’t inspire much confidence. If the line was way off in the Wilds favor it would be a value play. But at +110 to St. louis it’s minimal and potentially non existent if certain players sit.
Toronto
Made Toronto -132…starting to talk myself into them at -115. My first note was the draw potential at +320. I do like that as well. Torontos road record leaves a lot to be desired. However it seems to be factored in to the line I’m not seeing the price inflated based on Torontos always high expectations and their dominance on home ice.
Where I am seeing the inflation is on the Avs. They’ve overcome the injuries and everyone’s thought seems to be focused on that. However their home ice is clearly not as big as an advantage as it usually is so far. Their big advantage as far as the powerplay has taken a hit recently, though they have scored in 3 of the last 4 so maybe they’ve found something there and I’m jumping the gun. They Avs have lost their last 2 coming out of the break. They’ve also had an easy schedule of opponent and haven’t been able to win many by margin. St. Louis, Philly, Nashville twice, Montreal and Arizona are 6 of their last 10 opponents. Hardly a murders row. Toronto struggling to beat Philly and St. Louis and the loss to the Coyotes is jarring to look at. The 6-3 score line was aided by 2 empty netters however. This is still a team with a 61 win percent so there is value at -115.
Detroit
I should start this by saying I like Ottawa. There can be value on betting them. They also have gotten some good solid goaltending though it’s just not always consistent. However I think the wrong team is the favorite here presenting some value on the Red Wings. Some caveats though. Detroit is fading and the Sens are starting to come on. Red Wings also need to get Husso right. Going with Helberg here and he’s not a long term answer. Could potentially get some adrenaline bump performances by him though from time to time.
Detroit is 4-6-2 in December ugly right? But looking at their strength of opponent and what was to be expected realistically? Tampa Bay twice( surprisingly they won them both lol) Florida, Dallas, Carolina, Minnesota, Washington, Pittsburgh, Buffalo. Absolutely brutal stretch. They did also face this Sens team losing 6-3. However Detroit won all the 5 on 5 advanced metrics. The game came down to the special teams. Detroit 1 for 7 on their power plays. Conceded 3 plus a shorthanded and an empty netter. I think the strength of the Wings recent opponents is not being factored in when making them a home dog in this matchup.
I’m posting late, had little time to dig into these games. Columbus already won today, they must be ecstatic! And Buffalo is for real, the win today is believable and they’ll be a monster from here on against most teams.
To WIN puckline: Dallas
AHL WINs: Utica, Texas
Leans only:
To WIN moneyline: Dallas (I can’t see them losing)
Tie in regulation, play money only: Detroit/Ottawa
I don’t know if anyone is betting NCAAF right now, but the number of critical players on most teams that will not be playing due to transfers and the draft is HUGE, and basically the whole freaking league is a chaotic crap shoot right now, stats mean next to nothing, get deep info on missing players before betting on that chaos. I’m also off the NCAAB until after January 5th or so, to let the college kids recover from New Years and holiday parties. Didn’t see any NBA I liked today.
Happy New Years everyone, and thanks as always to Graeme and Scott for the daily NHL commentaries. Let’s all have a profitable remainder of the regular season!