Written by Scott on Monday, January 2nd, 2023
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No tips yesterday.
The Canes beat the Devils 5-4 in a shootout. Bratt scored twice for the Devils and Stepan twice for the Canes.
The Rangers beat the Panthers 5-3, the Kraken beat the Isles 4-1 and the Sens beat the Sabres 3-1.
Only 3 games today and I couldn’t find anything for a tip. The Pens vs Bruins game starts early so I have to keep these short.
Penguins vs Bruins
The NHL Winter Classic here. Its an outdoor game at Fenway which will look cool.
With outdoor games it’s really tough to predict as the conditions are much different and unpredictable.
The Penguins have lost their last 4 games and are 5-3-2 over last 10. The Bruins are 7-0-3 last 10 and are at “home” for this one where they still haven’t lost in regulation. If this was a normal game inside a stadium I would take the Bruins but I can’t.
I’m skipping this game.
Knights vs Avalanche
The Knights are 5-4-1 over last 10 and are on the road where they have gone 14-3-2.
The Avalanche have lost their last 3, are 6-3-1 over last 10 and 9-6-3 at home.
There are so many injuries for these teams that it is really tough to predict a winner.
I would lean towards a Knights win with their road record and the Avs on a 3 game skid but again it comes down to all of the players missing for both teams.
Flyers vs Ducks
Both teams have had bad seasons. Both are near the bottom for most stats.
The Flyers have won 2 straight and are 4-4-2 over last 10, the Ducks have gone 3-6-1.
I have no idea who wins this game as either team has shown us anything that could give us confidence in them.
VGK/Avs over 6 at +100
Check Marchessault status as if he does play for Vegas I like going over the low total even more. The Theodore injury could help the over case. The lack of him there as a top line defenseman may cancel out the offensive production he provides.
I’m seeing possible fatigue in both teams number 1 goalies and potential starters for todays game. Both are starting to hit their career high start totals.
With Vegas, Thompson has already reached 26 starts, surpassing last years 17. His overall numbers are still in line with those averages. His December game logs have shown a dip in both Goals against and Save Percentage. 8 of those 11 starts he’s conceded 3 or more goals. The 3 teams he was able to keep to less than 3 goals were Chicago, Arizona and Anaheim. Admittedly, Colorado is at the bottom of the league in GF/GP, but they may start to tick up a bit.
For the Avs, Georgiev is at the 26 start mark. His career high is 32 so he will be surpassing that. Most of his time with the Rangers he split or backed up. This years stats are currently above his typical season averages. So we may start to see regression. 7 of his 12 December starts he’s conceded 3 or more goals. And he’s been over the 3 goal total in his last 3 straight starts.
Over the last 10 games, I’m seeing Vegas concede more goals 5 on 5. Their Power Play is doing well and may add to their own goal total.
Colorado is showing me some conflicting data that I haven’t really come across often. In their 5 on 5 metrics over the last 10 games, they have won the xGF% 7 of 10 times. They’ve also won the SCF% 8 of the last 10 games.
However, when it comes to actual goals scored on 5 on 5, the Avs haven’t scored 3 or more goals in 16 straight games. This is surely due to change at some point. Though that doesn’t mean it will be this game, this week or even this month. But I don’t see something like 16 straight games often. Just for reference Anaheim, the worst of the worst, has still scored 3 or more goals twice in their last 11 games. Chicago another piñata was still able to do this at least once in their last 10.
Yes the teams are banged up. But I’m seeing two goalies who are reaching their highs in work loads. Mackinnon returned for a game vs Toronto and resumed his full shift and ice time workloads. Credited with 3 shots on 4 attempts. I tick up the Avs offense and special teams with him back. Also he’s not the best defensively rated either. The Avs only have one guy with over double digit goals. But another 7 or so aren’t far off and could join him shortly.
The Avs may be on a verge of breaking out offensively this month which may also coincide with a dip in Georgiev’s play as the season wears on. This should result in potential overs that aren’t currently being priced. Justifiably so because they haven’t happened up to this point. And there’s no law that says they have to either. But the lower game totals and the even money returns, give me more leeway if I’m wrong, and a higher return if I’m right. Marchessault playing would also be the cherry on top lol.
VGK/Col over 6 at +100
For Pit/Bos
Keeping in mind the afternoon outdoor game. Sight lines, ice quality and sun in goalies face all are added factors that can’t be adjusted for. However, I priced Boston -177 so it’s inline with current prices. Jarrys play has dipped last three games but that’s a small sample and could correct itself. Higher goal totals and sub 90 save percentage. Ullmark has been elite. He’s only given up more than 3 goals once in the season. That was to this Pittsburgh team though. Elite goalies remember these things. None of the 5 were from Pittsburghs power play which is where they do most of their damage. Boston should be seething from the Buffalo results. On how they started with the penalty, the missed opportunities and blowing the lead when Buffalo pulled their goalie and allowing the eventual comeback. Marchand and Pastrnak in particular who were both robbed of quality chances. The outdoor venue and gimmick of the game leaves a lot of variance and a crapshoot on what to predict as far as outcomes. If you do bet anything expect high volatility.
Opinions are
Bos to win -175
Pit under 2.5 team total goals at -110 or -125 if u prefer to exclude the possibility of OT. With the low total that would be the safer play
For Phi/Ana
If any play would be made it would be Philly in regulation +140.
Philly is 1-7 currently in games that go to OT and Shootout. Though it’s a crap shoot that can correct itself, Anaheim lives for OT and Shootouts. So I wouldn’t like Phillys chances if it got there. Anaheim is 7-4 in the extra time gimmicks. Anaheim has won just 3 of its 10 wins in regulation. Anaheim commits a lot of penalties. Philly stays disciplined and also has an aggressive PK that has scored 5 shorthanded in their last 6 games. Anaheim’s Gibson has given up 3 or more goals in 70 percent of his games. Anaheim has lost by more than a goal 6 of their last 10. In 5 on 5 play, Anaheim has been shut out in 5 of their last 10.
Anyone deciding to take Philly in regulation, remember it’s still Philly and keep expectations low. I believe it will be Ersson in net as I think Hart still didn’t clear protocols though he wanted to play. Check starting goalie sites for confirmed starters.