Written by Scott on Tuesday, January 3rd, 2023
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No tips yesterday.
The Winter Classic took place. The Pens scored 1st but DeBrusk scored twice in the 3rd for the 2-1 win. These games always look great. For the Bruins they still remain undefeated in regulation at home moving to 19-0-3.
The Knights beat the Avalanche 3-2. I said I was leaning towards a Knights win but with all the injuries I felt it was better to skip.
The final game of the night saw the Flyers beat the Ducks 4-1.
Canada beat Slovakia 4-3 in OT and now will play the U.S in the World Juniors Semi-Finals. Bedard is incredible. He scored twice including the overtime winner and he broke Canada’s all-time record for goals and points at the tournament. Going to be a great game to watch and the Americans are really good so Canada is going to have their work cut out for them.
A busy night of NHL action with 11 games scheduled.
Coyotes vs Panthers
The Panthers are heavily favored here and it makes it hard to bet on them.
The Coyotes are the road team here and their road record has been bad 6-14-3. The Panthers home record is ok but not amazing going 9-6-3.
We would need to take the Panthers -1.5 and the value for that is low and with the way the Panthers have been playing its a tough call.
Sabres vs Capitals
The Sabres lost their last game but have gone 7-2-1 over last 10. The Caps won their last game and are 8-1-1.
The Caps home record is impressive with them going 12-5-2. The Sabres lead the league in GPG and shooting percentage.
This should be a good game to watch.
Before the loss the Sabres had scored 28 goals over their last 6 games but could only score once against the Sens. The Caps are also scoring putting up 20 over their last 4 games.
Over 6.5 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.02 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +102 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.02 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/03 8:51:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Hurricanes vs Rangers
This should be a good game. The Canes are in 1st in the Metro and the Rangers 4th. The Canes currently have a 10 point lead over the Rangers.
The Canes are on an 11 game win streak and have gone 10-1-0 in games against Metro Divison teams.
On the road the Canes have gone 13-3-5, at home the Rangers have gone 8-7-4.
With the Canes on this win streak and their record against Metro Divison teams I have to back them here.
Canes win incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.77 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -123 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.77 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/03 8:51:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blues vs Leafs
The Blues were already having issues this season and now O’Reilly and Tarasenko are going to be out for a while.
The Leafs are 7-3 over last 10 and are at home where they have gone 13-2-3.
The Leafs are the favorites here and we would need to take them -1.5 to get any value. These teams played last week and the Leafs won 5-4 in overtime so I have to skip but I like the Leafs chances to win just wish the odds were better.
Jackets vs Senators
The Jackets finally won and stopped their losing streak at 7 games.
The Sens are 6-3-1 over last 10 and 3-1 over last 4 with wins against the Caps and Bruins.
This is a good chance for the Sens to show what they can do, at home against a struggling team.
Sens in regulation if Talbot starts
Ontario: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -145 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/03 8:51:09 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canadiens vs Predators
The Habs have lost 5 in a row and are 2-7-1 over last 10.
The Preds haven’t been very good either going 3-3-4.
If we were to take the Preds it would have to be -1.5 which isn’t something I’m doing with them.
Flames vs Jets
Both teams are on 2 game win streaks.
The Flames are on the road here and they have gone 7-6-5 and the Jets have gone 13-6-0 at home.
They played once this season and the Flames won 3-2.
The Flames take the 4th most shots in the league but are ranked 27th for shooting percentage. If they could find a way to bury more of those shots they would be in a better position.
I’m skipping this game as I feel it could go either way.
Lightning vs Blackhawks
Another game where one team is heavily favored.
The Lightning are 8-2-0 over last 10 and have won 3 straight. The Hawks are 1-9 and are riding a 4 game losing streak into this game.
All signs point to a Lightning win but by how many is the question. A Lightning -1.5 is only 1.74 which is way to low for a road team so it’s an easy skip for me.
Kraken vs Oilers
The 4th place Kraken vs the 5th place Oilers in the Pacific. They both have 42 points but the Oilers have played 3 more games.
The Oilers need to end the 4 game home losing streak they are on.
The Kraken know that they are tied with them for points and a win here would move them ahead and still have 3 games in hand.
With the Kraken going 4-5-1 and the Oilers 4-4-2 I don’t have any confidence in either team here and will skip.
Islanders vs Canucks
The Canucks score more per game and they Isles allow less.
The Isles have gone 9-9-2 on the road this season. The Canucks have gone 7-9-1 in Vancouver.
Nothing I like from this game.
Stars vs Kings
The Stars are in 1st in the Central and the Kings 2nd in the Pacific. This should be a good game.
They played once this season and the Stars won 5-2 in Dallas.
The Stars are ranked 3rd in GPG and the Kings 14th.
With the Stars on a 4 game win streak they will have the momentum but the Kings are expected to start Copley who is 8-1 with a 2.58 GAA and a .905 save percentage.
Would lean towards a Stars win but the Kings are a decent team who are at home.
I had a crazy night of bets yesterday, and I was so close getting everything right. I had tons of NBA bets, betting 4/5, 5/5 and 4/6, 5/6 and 6/6 systems. I missed one of my main bets in Denver Nuggets losing, and I missed on some of my handicap bets for the Dubs. I had Warriors -1.5 on some bets and -3.5 on others. They were up 21 points early on, and it looked like a great night, but ah well.
For the NHL I had MacKinnon to score, which he did right away. I also had Flyers to win in regulation. So the NHL bets were good!
Tonight I’ve got two groups of bets. The core bets will be these:
Canes incl OT/SO
Sens in regulation
Leafs -1.5
Lightning -1.5
Isles in regulation
Panthers -1.5
I will also place smaller bets on these:
Canes in regulation
Sens -1.5
Caps in regulation
Preds -1.5
Jets in regulation (if Hellebuyck in goal, listed as probable)
Oilers in regulation
I might also place a bet on Panthers -1.5. Coyotes are so bad away, losing 9 of their last 10 away games. 2 went to OT, but they were against the Canucks and Wings. When they’ve played away against the better teams they’ve lost by 2 or more, with the exception of maybe Wild.
Yeah, I’m putting that one in my core group of bets.
Panthers, Leafs and Lightning -1.5.
Dallas ML AND over 6.0.
Jets (averaging under 2 in last 5 post Wheeler injury) and Habs (Saros averaging under 3 per game) both under 3.5 team totals.
I saw that Forsberg was confirmed for Ottawa.
Just to put on peoples radars only three games tomorrow but two teams playing today are on the first game of their road back to backs.
One team is Dallas the other is Tampa Bay. Dallas will be on the road vs LA today followed by Anaheim as it does its west coast games. Tampa Bay is at Chicago tonight followed by at Minnesota tomorrow. So check which goaltenders take which games. If Vasilevskiy is confirmed for the easier matchup vs Chicago tonight, he may be thinking about playing both games like he’s already done before. Elliott hasn’t played since the 21st though and it was a loss so they may wanna get him some action.
NYR +115 if Raanta starts for Carolina.
I’m anticipating Raanta to play for Carolina so hopefully he does. Carolina has been great on the 5 on 5 advanced metrics over the last 10 games. However they do not win by much margin even with the dominant stats. 7 of the last 10 wins have been by one goal. Only 18 of their 25 wins have been in regulation (72 percent) That’s just one more win than the Rangers.
Raanta has gone 6-0 over December. However he has a Save Percentage of .891 during that time. Carolinas defense has been able to limit the shots against so it will be important for the Rangers to get shots on net tonight. Which they are pretty good at doing.
Shesterkin has posted a 7-2-2 record in December with a .927 Save Percentage. Carolina also takes a lot of shots but Igor is accustomed to handling more shots. Despite Carolinas high shot totals they are 20th at 3.11 GF/GP and this drops below 3 to 2.90 when on the road.
I also like the Rangers -1.5 at +230. Probably 3-1 final score. Maybe 4-2.
Rangers +115 if Raanta starts for Carolina.
This is not my favorite play so I will try and post my others. With less lengthy write ups as I’m currently at work.
TB -1.5 at -130
I see a TB 4-1 or 5-0 score here. They do have the game tomorrow but I think they’ll have too much pride and respect for a coach with the pedigree of Cooper to not give effort against Luke Richardson and his squad. The talent disparity is to big so hopefully if TB gets out to the early lead they don’t allow Chicago back in. Tampa has beaten the bottom level teams and won by margin. They also have a negative gf/gp against their ga/gp on the road. They’ll want to correct that and this is a good spot to do so.
Toronto -1.5 at +100
The St. Louis injuries can be a factor in getting Toronto to win here by margin. St. Louis is 7-0-3 in one goal games. Showing when they lose it’s often by more than 1. Toronto has just one loss in regulation by one goal adding to the likelihood.
CBJ/ Ott under 6.5 at -115
I felt most confident in this one yesterday. Korpisalo can give them a formidable goalie in the crease. I also wouldn’t be surprised with a Blue Jackets win and feel there’s value on them at +185
Nashville not betting this but I wrote down a 4-2 score line next to this when handicapping last night. No other explanations or notes next to it. So take that for what it’s worth.
Plays are
CBJ/Ott under 6.5 at -115
TB -1.5 at -130
Tor -1.5 at +100