Written by Scott on Wednesday, January 4th, 2023
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Well I had 2 tips yesterday and went 1-1.
The win was the over 6.5 in the Sabres vs Capitals game and the Sabres won 5-4 in OT. Thompson scored a hat trick and added an assist for the Sabres and Ovechkin scored twice for the Caps.
The loss was the Canes to beat the Rangers. The Canes were up 2-1 after the 1st and 3-2 after the 2nd but the Rangers scored 3 unanswered in the 3rd for the 5-3 win.
I had went with the Sens in regulation if Talbot got the start. Forsberg got the start so there wasn’t a tip for this game but it didn’t matter that Talbot had the night off as the Sens won 4-0.
The Leafs vs Blues game was a good one. The Blues had a few leads but the Leafs stayed in it to force OT where the Blues won 6-5 in a shootout. Matthews picked up 2 point and became the fastest Maple Leaf to reach that 500 point milestone which he did in 445 games.
Only 3 games tonight.
Devils vs Red Wings
The Devils have dropped in the standings. They have gone 2-6-2 over last 10 and are now in 2nd place in the Metro with 49 points. They trail the 1st place Canes by 7 points and have a 1 point lead over the Rangers and Capitals.
The Wings have gone 3-5-2 and are in 5th.
They have played twice this season with the Wings winning the first 5-2 and the Devils the 2nd 6-2.
I want to take the Devils to win here but it would have to be in regulation and with the way things have been going for them I don’t have enough confidence in doing that.
Lightning vs Wild
This should be a good game with the Lightning in 3rd in the Atlantic and the Wild 3rd in the Central.
The Lightning have won 4 in a row heading into this game and both teams are 8-2 over their last 10. The Lightnings 4 wins are nice but when we see who they beat its hard to use that as momentum with a shootout win against the Rangers and wins against the Blackhawks, Coyotes and Canadiens.
The Wild have gone 2-2 over last 4 but before that they had won 6 straight.
Both teams are playing well and both will be looking to gain some ground on the 2nd place teams in their divisions.
I feel safer just skipping this game.
Stars vs Ducks
The Stars played last night and lost to the Kings. Before that loss they had won 4 straight and have gone 7-2-1 over last 10.
The Ducks have dropped their last 2 and have gone 3-6-1 over last 10.
The played once in November and the Stars won 5-0.
Statistically speaking the Stars are the better team. They rank 4th in GPG, the Ducks 31st and rank 7th in GAPG and the Ducks 32nd.
On the road the Stars have gone 12-6-3 and the Ducks have gone 6-10-1 at home.
Stars in regulation
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -130 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/04 9:00:46 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Hi Scott,
I believe that you had a mistake in the tip “Ducks in regulation” probably should be “Stars in regulation”
Thanks mate – updated!
Full game UNDER 7.0: Stars/Bolts
Win moneyline: Dallas
Leans: Dallas wins in regulation, puckline
The issue with Dallas is their schedule is comfy; they’re reasonably well rested and after tonight they get 3 days off and their look-ahead is not worrying, so they should show up to win after losing last night. Anaheim can’t supply anything like the speed and offense LA does. However, if they play down to the competition the puckline gets riskier. I think the “in regulation” is still good. Only a medium motivation level game for Dallas.
Not touching the Devils/Wings game for the reason stated by Scott; these are two teams playing reasonably good, Jersey rebounding out of a mini-slump and the Wings doing OK, so on a day of such transitions, too up in the air for me.
Tampa Bay +100
I’m seeing this as a 3-2 or 4-2 Tampa win.
Dallas to win in regulation -130
I thought the Dallas money line was low as well. I made this game Dallas -233. It opened -175 and has been bet up to -205. Some notes on Dallas. Wedgewood had only two starts in December. His last game was the 17th which was a loss to Carolina where he gave up 5 goals. Solid game vs the Devils though. Also I’m seein dallas 5 on 5 metrics take down on their two west coast games. It may be the travel but it’s a very small sample size that I might be reading too much into. I don’t think the Ducks are the type to take advantage. The Ducks allow a ton of shots and Dallas’ shooting percentages are above the league average. Stranger things have happened and this one wouldn’t totally shock me, but I can still take the Stars in regulation with some confidence. Dallas has been really solid against the bottom group of teams. The Ducks have had some strange wins against the top teams though.
Bets are
Tamp Bay +100
Dallas regulation -130