Written by Graeme on Friday, January 20th, 2023
Follow @BetNHL
Man, what in the blue hell happened to those LA Kings last night?
I was a bit concerned about them conceding goals as mentioned, but I really did not expect them to get shut out by Wedgewood.
The only bright spot for Kings fans will be that Quick at least came in and shut them down. Been awhile since I lost to a surprising result like that. I guess the days off ended up haunting LA.
Very glad I made that Flyers in regulation play goalie dependent. I wasn’t quite sure about that one and when the Flyers went up early, I was regretting it. But they couldn’t add to their lead and despite some great chances, came out with a big loss.
It’s a quiet little Friday which is nice. Let’s see if we got anything from the two games:
Penguins vs Senators:
I mean these two just played I never back these. On paper the over isn’t too bad the problem really is GF/60 and SCGF/60. That wasnt a concern in the last game but it’s enough to put me off.
Honestly probably Pens to win is fine. Sens relied on power plays in that one. Pens at home. Problem is Penguins have been pretty poor lately. I do think they bounce back here and get a solid win but not enough to back them.
Canucks vs Avs:
Bleh. The Avs are one of those teams where I don’t want to quite back them yet. They’re starting to produce like the metrics expected but it’s tough to hop on a team early only for it to come crashing down.
I mean we saw that early November when they strung 4 wins together then it all came crashing down.
This is a very winnable game for them. I’m just not quite ready to back them especially against a pretty solid offense in the Canucks. And we did just see Vancouver beat them 4-2 a couple of weeks ago.
Yeah no bets today. Leans on Pens & Avs and maybe the over in the latter. I’m doing a two team parlay on Sens & Avs Over 2.5 myself at 2.10.
Thanks Graeme. I have often played TT, but usually the 3.5. Tailing your parlay
SDB
Full game Over 6.0: Avs/Canuckleheads
Avs playing much better recently, many injured players both back and still out. Makar (questionable tonight) missing didn’t matter in terms of the Avs beating Calgary easily (Flames’ season has been wasted on the boards so far). Vancouver is even worse and just can’t keep pucks out of their net, yet keep scoring. The 6.0 has been hit in 15/20 of these two teams last ten games combined, also in their last two and 8/10 against each other. Canucks take a fair number of penalties and have the league’s worst penalty kill at 66%.
Two team parlay +165
Pittsburgh -155
and
Colorado-165
Penguins opened up -130(56 percent) on the road vs Ottawa two days ago. Now at home, this was an easy opening line to project. Just add 5 percent to Pittsburgh for home ice, which bumps them to about 61 percent. And you got the opening line of -155 for the Penguins.
Odd back and forth game between the two swapping one goal leads. Tkachuk winning it for the Sens in overtime 5-4. Ottawa outshot Pens 40-19. Until the overtime, all Ottawa goals came on the man advantage, making it tougher to predict how this one will turn out. In fact we saw 6 of the 8 goals in regulation come on the powerplay. 14 total power plays between both teams. Just 36 minutes of 5 on 5 hockey was played. It wasn’t a pretty half hour for the Penguins 5 on 5 either. Dominated in the advanced metrics. Outshot 25-9 on 5 on 5. And yet it was the Penguins who scored two even strength goals and the Senators held without one. I don’t really know what to do with that.
I personally am gonna throw the metrics out. The Penguins have a lot to not like about them. And I personally have not been a believer in them even when they were doing good earlier in the season. Just 3 wins in their last 10. However, looking at this months advanced metrics, that Ottawa one stands out by how putrid it was. Even with their recent struggles, they have had some positive Corsi, Fenwick, Shots For %, Expected Goals and Scoring Chances metrics. Getting a second crack to redeem themselves so quickly vs the same team, you SHOULD see better effort. All that may not matter with DeSmith in goal.
My parlay is gonna be the Penguins and Avalanche both to win. Not really pretty. Very chalk. Both the Senators and Canucks never seem to be out of it. Can be down 3 and come back. Can be up three in the first and blow it.
Penguins and Avalanche parlayed together pays out at +165.
Colorado Valeri Nichuskin to score +140
Nichuskin has been back for two games and has gotten his regular workload, both full strength and on the power play. He’s tried to hit the ground running taking 9 shots so far without a goal to show for. Tonight’s opponent might provide him the opportunity.
If it’s Spencer Martin for Vancouver, there should be plenty of opportunities to go around. 0-5 in January with a SV % of .829. If they roll Delia, he hasn’t been a world beater either. However he did hold this Avs team to 2 goals back on Jan 5th.
Vancouver has the worst penalty kill in the league. Vancouver is the only team with a PK below 70 percent. Nichuskin has been on the first power play so he can get extra chances there. The problem with picking Nichuskin is there’s plenty of other Avs who can get the scoring done. MacKinnon, Rantanen and Lehkonen just to name a few. But I like how much he’s been shooting and I think he’s really dying to get his first goal after missing so much time. He wants to pick up where he left off before the injury, and I think getting him a goal will be a priority.
Nichuskin to score +140
Just to say you’re a maestro at scorers tips ! Please keep going
BRAVO
Cheers from France
While I appreciate the kind words, I feel you are being far too generous to me. While I’ll gladly take the wins, I feel like I was a tad bit lucky with the Nichuskin goal last night. The shots and opportunities I envisioned for him weren’t really there as MacKinnon was shooting everything in sight. A bit fortunate on my part I think, if I’m being fair. Thank you and much respect to you.