Written by Scott on Tuesday, January 24th, 2023
Follow @BetNHL
I had one tip yesterday, the Leafs to win in regulation against the Isles which they did.
The Isles were up 1-0 after a late goal in the 1st but the 2nd period was all Nylander and the Leafs. Nylander had 2 goals and 2 assits in the 2nd alone and the Leafs won the game 5-2. The looked bad in the 1st getting outshot 13-6 but by the end of the game they outshot the Isles 39-33.
The Rangers beat the Panthers with ease 6-2. Zibanejad had 2 goals and an assist.
The Sabres beat the Stars 3-2 in OT with Power scoring the winner which was his first goal of the season.
The final game of the night saw Johnny Gaudreau return to Calgary as a member of the Jackets. He had 2 assists but the Flames won 4-3 in overtime.
Another busy Tuesday in the NHL with 11 games.
Bruins vs Canadiens
Always a good game between two long time rivals. The Bruins are 9-1 and the Habs 5-5 over last 10 games.
The Bruins have won the last 7 games between these teams dating back to 2019.
The Bruins are ranked in the top 5 in all major stats where the Habs near the bottom of the league in the same ones.
I’m sure the Bruins can win this game but going with a -1.5 play only had odds of about 1.71 which is low.
Kings vs Flyers
The Flyers are 7-4 in January. The Kings are 5-4.
The Kings may go with Quick for this game as Copley played in the last. Quick hasn’t won a game since December 1st.
I’ve always been a fan of Quick but he’s 37 now and his best hockey playing days are behind him and he’s not the player he used to be. These things happen.
The Flyers have a home record of 10-12-1 and the Kings road record is 12-8-4
If Copley starts Kings win incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -138 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/24 9:08:44 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wild vs Lightning
The Wild are 3rd in the Central and the Lightning are 3rd in the Atlantic. The Wild won the first game between these teams 5-1 on January 4th in Minnesota.
Both teams have dropped their last 2 games and the Wild have gone 5-3-2 and the Lightning 6-4 over last 10. The Lightning score more and shoot more and the Wild allow less goals and shots.
Just hard to predict a winner for this game.
Panthers vs Penguins
The Panthers got beat last night. When they play back to back games they are 1-4-1 in the 2nd game.
The Penguins are 13-5-4 at home but have gone 4-4-2 over last 10.
With the Panthers playing last night and their record after playing the night before and their away record, 11-15-2, I do like the Pens to win this game.
I would have to take the Pens in regulation but I can’t with them having 3 of their last 4 games need overtime.
Sharks vs Red Wings
Both teams are struggling at the moment.
The Sharks have gone 3-5-2 and the Wings 3-6-1.
Both are ranked in the 20’s for goals per game, shots on goal and goals against.
I would lean towards a Wings win but I don’t have the confidence to make it a tip.
Knights vs Devils
Big game here. It’s the 1st in the Pacific vs the 2nd in the Metro.
The Knights have been a great road team this season going 15-4-2. The Devils have also been a great road team but when at home, as they are for this game, they haven’t been going 12-10-2.
The Devils still rank high in some key stats. They are 6th in GPG, 4th in shots on goal and 3rd in both GAPG and shots allowed per game.
Just feel safer skipping this game. I would lean towards a Devils win but can’t pull the trigger.
Jets vs Predators
The Jets are in 2nd in the Central and the Preds are 5th.
The Jets are ranked 4th in GPG where the Preds are 27th, the Jets are also 4th in GAPG where the Preds are 13th.
In games against teams from within their division the Jets are 12-3 and the Preds 4-6-3.
With the Jets road record and play against Central Divison teams I like them to win this game.
Jets win incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -125 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/24 9:08:44 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Sabres vs Blues
The Sabres played last night and won in overtime. When the Sabres are playing for the 2nd day in a row they have gone 1-6-1.
The Blues are 6-4 over last 10 and at home where they have gone 10-11-2.
They played in November and the Sabres won that one 6-2.
I could see this game going either way so I’m skipping.
Ducks vs Coyotes
Nothing here. It’s an easy pass for me.
Capitals vs Avalanche
The Caps are in the middle of the Metro in what is turning out to be a tight race. The are 4th with 56 points and only 1 behind the Rangers and 2 ahead of the Pens. They’ve gone 4-5-1 last 10 and are on the road where they have gone 12-10-3 this season.
The Avs have won the last 5 games in a row. They are in 4th and really can’t afford to lose many more games in the Central standings which is also very close like the Metro
With these teams recent results I do like the Avs to win.
Avalanche win in regulation
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/01/24 9:08:44 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blackhawks vs Canucks
The Hawks have gone 6-4 in their last 10 games and are still in last place in the Central.
This will be the Canucks first game with new head coach Rick Tocchet. It was a mess the way the Boudreau situation was handled.
I don’t have a tip for this game. I could see the coaching change maybe lighting a fire under some of the Canucks but with the way they have played I’m not backing them.
Tampa Bay -155
Buffalo +120 half unit
Winnipeg/Nashville goes to OT +320 half unit
Tampa Bay Nikita Kucherov to score +140
Tampa Bay -155
Expecting a different outcome here from the 5-1 loss vs the Wild back on the 4th. Tampa lost the 5 on 5 goals for/against 3-0 in that game. But had the better expected goals and scoring chances in that game. Tampa Bay 77 percent on home ice. Still slight concern about some Tampa jet lag after a grueling road trip which expectedly showed in the Calgary game. Hoping for a nice bounce back performance here before Boston comes to town.
Buffalo +120
Luukkonen 8-2 with a 91.2 sv percentage over his last 10. Binnington pulled in his last start. Has had a save percentage below 90 all season. Tarasenko back for the Blues. Like getting the Sabres at plus money here, even off the back to back.
Winnipeg/ Nashville draw on 60 minute line +320.
Tampa Bay Nikita Kucherov to score +140
Just one goal in his last 5 despite being second behind Stamkos in shots for all forwards. Fleury was going good but struggling a bit his last four. The opportunities should be there for Kucherov. TB 5th overall in GF/GP. Jumps up to first and over 4.00 at home.
Tampa Bay -155
Buffalo +120
Win/Nas draw after regulation +320
Tampa Bay Nikita Kucherov to score +140
Look Ahead to tomorrow 1/25 I’m gonna grab the Islanders +105 at Ottawa. Despite the Islanders struggles they are being priced as equal teams, and I don’t agree. Grabbing the plus money as I anticipate this line will move and I don’t think plus money on the Islanders will be available come tomorrow. Don’t know about them winning and haven’t done any research. This is strictly a value and power ranking play.
I priced the Carolina vs Dallas matchup exactly at -110. Made Toronto a -155 favorite home vs the Rangers, and they opened -150. So unless there’s any movement that creates value, or something I see when I pour over the advanced metrics, might not be a play in either of those games.
Edmonton heavy favorites as expected vs Columbus. They’ve already put the puckline for Edmonton at -2.5 at +110. Aside from a two team parlay with Seattle to win in regulation, Edmonton -2.5 would be the only play for me. Not ready to do that as of right now.
Seattle regulation vs Vancouver -115.
This is the next closest play I’m considering. Vancouver tied right now 2-2 vs Chicago. Teams usually get that new coach bump, however the message was always that the Canucks continued to play hard for Bruce. So don’t know how much boost they’ll really get with the switch. They hit the ground running with the shot totals thru two periods sitting at 35 to 10 in favor of Vancouver. However tie score vs the Hawks. Vancouver does not wanna lose this game at home and this may force them to expend way more mental and physical energy then they intended going in. Add to it the whole coaching drama that went on far too long and still potential player sell offs and trades.
Also they went with Delia here so we could see the Kraken get to go against Spencer Martin tomorrow. Once again I would highly consider having your better goalies play both games of a back to back more often. I mean he’s only faced 10 shots up to this point. Both Vancouver goaltenders are below average. But Delia does have all the better metrics.
The fatigue, the travel, the back to back, the potential of Martin starting, added to Seattles level of team speed and ability to dominate the advanced metrics, has me confident the Kraken have a better than 53 percent chance to win their game tomorrow in regulation which is what it’s currently priced at.
Seattle’s shooting percentages both overall and 5 on 5 are about two percent above league average. I like that against a goaltender who is 0-6 with a Save Percentage of .841 in the month of January. Personally I’d play Delia again and even then I still like the Kraken here. This will be a play for me and I think I actually like it more than the Islanders play.
January 25 Look Ahead Plays
NYI +105
Seattle regulation -115