Written by Graeme on Friday, February 10th, 2023
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Hi guys,
Quick note that I am away with my family this weekend, so write-ups will be shorter than normal. I also won’t be doing the best odds comparison I will just list where the best odds are for each game.
I also brought my Macbook forgetting that my internal database software for the hockey doesn’t work with this. Oops. At least I can remote into my machine at home.
Nice quiet Friday with just four games and three heavy favourites so let’s have a looksee:
Rangers vs Kraken:
Since the break the New York Rangers have had two high scoring victories. Kraken lost to the Devils and Islanders.
Looking at the metrics – yeah, really not seeing any reason not to take the Rangers here. Jones in net which is a flip in regards to whether that’s a concern or not – he has struggled in his last few games.
Rangers in Regulation – Bet365 have them at 1.86
Jackets vs Leafs:
I’m fine avoiding the Leafs until Matthews is back, honestly. Jackets actually could make a game of this.Out of the three big dogs tonight, I like the Jackets the most. Their home results aren’t too bad. Of course they haven’y played in like 10 days. If it wasn’t for that I might actually consider advising them.
Blackhawks vs Coyotes:
Not seeing anything here. Blackhawks are probably the best bet but they are such a wild card.
Ducks vs Penguins:
Man – actually I don’t know if Jackets are the dogs I like the most today. Pens better in Corsi & Fenwick, but Ducks offense producing better. Pens defense is a disaster too and they have a brutal xGA – worse than the Ducks. Goaltending helps them but not a ton.
If you’re looking to back the Ducks – and I may take a risk on that – I would wait to see if Terry is playing. Big factor in the team. Ducks playing well too. Yeah both them and Jackets could pull an upset tonight.
In most spots I would jump on Seattle at +155, but I’m hesitant to do so here. Rangers priced at -180 feels slightly high. Especially if the rangers decide to go with Halak here and give Shesterkin the game at Carolina tomorrow. Ultimately I think they should go with Shesterkin tonight, and try and make sure they don’t go 0-2 on the back to back.
Halak in the new year 5-0 with a .931 save percentage. However he was 2-6-1 with a .890 the 9 starts prior to that. He was probably better then his 2 win start to the season but his most recent form is due to regress at some point. He gave up 4 in his most recent game to the Flames. Could be a one game blip, or a sign of things to come.
Also looking ahead to that Carolina game tomorrow, it was the Rangers who snapped their 11 game win streak back in January. Carolina currently on a 7 game win streak again, has to have that on their mind.
When looking at the metrics nothing jumped out one way or the other. I did see signs that pointed to the under. But they’ve already set it at the 6. Seattle just played yesterday, but won’t really have to worry about travel. They are now in a three way tie for second in the Pacific, that could see them drop to fourth if the losing continues. I see a lot of variance with both these teams, and I’m not eager to bet a low total, especially if the Rangers do roll Halak here.
The Tarasenko trade also adds a wrinkle. As the Rangers now on paper have three solid lines that can threaten to score. Tarasenko has had a down year and is off his career shooting percentage by about 3 percent. He had the trade hanging over his head for quite some time and can now just focus on playing meaningful hockey again. It’s one of those things where we could see the trade pay dividends immediately in the short term. I think if they pair him with Panarin, Artemi will immediately go into his comfortable facilitator role and look to get him a goal. I like the +180 price for Tarasenko to score. If I had to bet anything on this game it would be that because I really like that value there. I’ll probably talk myself into that.
The one goal scorer I did take already was Pittsburgh Jake Guentzel at +100. Though not a sure thing I felt like he was the safest bet of the three goal scorers I had highlighted. The third being Laine at +165. With no games jumping out to me I’ll probably go with Tarasenko and Guentzel today and Laine being the odd man out.
Pittsburgh Jake Guentzel to score +100
New York Rangers Tarasenko to score +180
Also as of writing I see the Rangers are likely to go with Shesterkin tonight. Which I do think is the right choice as they have to give themselves the best chance to not get swept on the back to back and going into Carolina tomorrow after a battle with a desperate Seattle is going to be a really tough ask for them.
Also speaking of back to backs, the Toronto and Columbus game is a home and home back to back between the two teams.
Shesterkin is confirmed for tonight.
To WIN moneyline: Rangers
Lean: Full game UNDER 6.0: Hawks/Coyotes
I figure that’s 75% likely. Who’s going to score in Chicagee? Won’t touch the Pens, and on the road against a bottom-feeder team, maybe a lean would be Ducks at +1.5, but not going for it. I’ve haven’t bet on Leafs games for at least a year, their offense has been inconsistent.
Tarasenko in New York should give them a psychological rush tonight, he obviously won’t be fully adjusted into team chemistry but they know that and will just go berserk on offense. New York has been scoring well recently and Seattle has serious scoring frustrations in their last 10 games.
Half of tomorrow’s 14 games have very early or early starts, but the remainder don’t look bad for possible OVER’s.