Written by Graeme on Friday, March 3rd, 2023
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A winning night last night, as the Sens vs Rangers game went over.
It was also nice to see the Sens win as well, as I thought they seemed like a play. Rangers were a big public team yesterday, and I saw a lot of people stunned at they lost. If you were one of them – you have to start studying the advanced metrics. They aren’t the be all and end all, but they are always a great baseline to start bets with.
Bruins crushed the Sabres as their defense stifled them, becoming the fastest team in history to reach 100 points. Watch them get dumped first round of the playoffs.
Leafs came back to get the win. The Wild defensive metrics overcame the Canucks offensive metrics. And what a couple of bangers we had in Kraken vs Red Wings and Penguins vs Lightning.
Friday. 5 games.
Blue Jackets vs Kraken:
Kraken coming in off that great game last night. Jackets coming off that big Sabres victory end of the month. I expect a lot of people will like the over here. Not enough metrics point to it for me. The Jackets goaltending metrics have been quite solid, and the Kraken offense randomly disappear at times. Probably some value on the Jackets here actually, although they should be conceding a lot more and the Kraken could punish them. No bet.
Oilers vs Jets:
Oilers coming in off the nice win over the Leafs, after losses to the Bruins and the Jackets. Goaltending still a critical factor for Edmonton. Sometimes their offense can overcome it, but not always.
Jets should be scoring a lot more. If Campbell is in net, I don’t hate the over in this one but man it’s Winnipeg, and they are so hard to trust.
Let’s go with Oilers in Regulation if Skinner in net. It’s not that he is great or anything but I mean compared to Jack Campbell, it feels like backing Patrick Roy.
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/03 8:58:31 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Coyotes vs Hurricanes:
Coyotes coming off the loss to the Stars. Hurricanes two straight losses and -1.5 is just 1.74 odds. Yikes. You’re basically betting they wake up and do the business and hell they might, but I don’t think it’s an +EV play.
Golden Knights vs Devils:
Knoghts got the win over the Hurricanes. Devils have put together some wins themselves but they really don’t seem super backable at the moment. And they’re slight favourites here so the odds aren’t great. Looking at the metrics I’d probably agree with those odds. This could be a very tight one. Knights SCGA/60 of 1.77 is impressive. No bet.
Ducks vs Canadiens:
Habs slight dogs here. Ducks man not playing bad at all lately. I’m not seeing anything too overwhelming in the metrics. You look at the base ones like goals scored and that, and it looks like the Habs will be able to outscore the Ducks and get the win. But you look at all the others and it’s nowhere near as convincing. No bet.
Good bet last night boys. Tailing tonight.
Seattle Jordan Eberle to score +235
Winnipeg Nikolaj Ehlers +185
New Jersey Yegor Sharangovich +310
couldn’t decide between Aho +100 and Jarvis +225 for carolina so they got left out
March 4 early afternoon picks
Tampa Bay Kucherov to score +155
Was initially going to be Hagel at +180. However, Hagel doesn’t shoot consistently enough to tip today with so many games and options. He is on a line with Point and Kucherov so it makes sense why his opportunities are so limited. Prior to his 3 shots vs Pittsburgh, he took just one shot over a 3 game span. His shooting percentage is a good one at 16.7. Currently above his career high 15.9. However to add to my point of his lack of shooting, his 132 shots thru 61 games this season, is already a career high for him.
The argument for Hagel is he’s currently on a 9 game goalless streak. Up until then his longest goalless streak this season has been 6 games.
Jumping over to Kucherov. Gets to face Buffalo and Eric Comrie. My theory for goalies with low save percentages is take guys who shoot the puck often, and Kucherov has fit that bill. 20 shots over his last 5, 34 over his last 10. I believe he leads Tampa forwards in that span. The 11.2 shooting percentage he’s currently at this season, is his lowest since his rookie year. And off his career average of 14.6. Not crazy with the early afternoon start, so hope everyone is ready to play.
I’ll also be taking Hedman here at +425. One of two longer shot,lower expectation defenseman I’ll be picking today. The other will be Fox at +500 vs Boston. Hedman did just score in his most recent game, so the chance of him scoring again here isn’t great. However, 25 shots over his last 6 games. One of the goals also came against Buffalo for what that’s worth. At the price point worth it, but I won’t be surprised if this is too aggressive and doesn’t cash.
Boston Debrusk +175
Pastrnak always a threat to score but the +100 for him makes it slightly easier to pass on. Had trouble choosing between Debrusk and Marchand. Both going at the same price.
New York Rangers Fox +500
Low expectations based on the opponent. However the price reflects that as well. He went from +350 in his last game now up to the +500 here. Worth a shot at that price I feel, but opportunities will be extremely limited and he’ll have to cash in the chance he gets. Assuming he even gets one.
I have a few more for games later in the day that I will try to post as well.
Tampa Bay Kucherov +155
Boston Debrusk +175
Longer shot way low expectations
Tampa Bay Hedman +425
New York Rangers Fox +500