Written by Graeme on Sunday, March 5th, 2023
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Hi guys,
A 2-1 night last night.
Our loss was the San Jose Sharks, and that was 100% on the goaltending. As an example – when the Sharks were down 3-2, the Capitals xG was only about 0.75. Sucks but nothing you can do there – Sharks were playing well and just some disastrous goaltending was the difference there.
Won with the Minnesota Wild beating the Flames. What a solid team they are looking at the moment. If their offense really gets going – they could be a force.
Panthers also duly delivered with the over 3.5 team goals.
And the Leafs got absolutely blasted by the Canucks including two short handed goals. Ahahahahahaha.
Five games today.
Hurricanes vs Lightning:
Lightning come in struggling at the moment. On a B2B. Hurricanes got the big win over the Coyotes to get back on track. These two last played in November where the Canes won 4-3.
I mean by the metrics, the Canes are just a better team period. Their offensive metrics are top notch. Tampa struggle with conceding goals – although they should be scoring more. But Canes can be stingy.
Tampa saved Vasy for this one. Ya know – sometimes he has a big game. But he’s also been lit up a fair bit lately. And even if he does step up tonight? This is still an elite offense that should be able to get past him.
Hurricanes in Regulation
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: Best Odds at BetOnline. – it’s just too early and they aren’t up yet
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/05 6:32:56 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Knights vs Canadiens:
It isn’t what to bet here – it’s wheather the Knights -1.5 is worth it. By the metrics – not at all. Looking at recent results? Not at all. An easy pass for me. Habs actually could contend with them here.
Flyers vs Red Wings:
Neither team are really inspiring for a bet. Really a case of looking at the metrics and hoping some value jumps off the screen. And eh – it does lean the Red Wings way, which may be negated by them being on the road.Although Philly have a losing home record, and Wings road record isn’t too bad.
Eh. I just don’t really want to back the Wings here. Expecially with Husso likely out.
Coyotes vs Devils:
Similar to the Knights bet. And man I really don’t want to take -1.5 on the road, especially at 1.74 odds. Like – there is just a billion better spots to bet when it comes to hockey. Really feels like such a Homer pick. Metrics have it at about 50/50 whether they cover anyway so not a play.
Avalanche vs Kraken:
Slight lean to the Avs based on their ability to score at the moment, a whole goal higher than their xG. But they are overperforming offensively, and I mean the last two games and how much they conceded is a cause for concern. On paper, over 6 goals isn’t too bad but it’s just not there in the SCGF/SCGA stats for me.
I don’t hate the play by any means. I think it’s pretty close and 2.00 is some decent value for it actually. Probably one I’ll regret not backing but it does seem a bit iffy if the Kraken can produce or not.
To WIN moneyline: Vegas
To WIN puckline: New Jersey
Lean: Full game OVER 5.0: Seattle/Colorado
Still waiting for the trades to settle in, but the Vegas game looks good for Vegas. Quick should be very inspired employed by a previous rival with great prospects to add to a great track record.
New Jersey is just too strong, and their look-ahead schedule shows they should want points here.
The risky OVER in Colorado is due to their track record of lower-scoring results with this matchup, but recent trends for both teams are for lots of goals. Should gravitate to 5, but then what? The 6.0 still looks good, but not too inclined to chase it.
Tks for all the tips.
New Jersey Hughes to score -140
Hughes is probably due some regression at some point. He’s already at 36 goals in just 57 games. His 14 percent shooting this season is still below last years 15.8, though this is a bigger sample size. However Hughes shoots the puck often and so the opportunity should be there. The one negative would be the -140 price point, which you really hate taking on goal scorers. There’s just not much value to it due to the high variance.
If Arizona goes with Vejmelka, he’s given up 26 goals over his last 6 games. And has a .869 save percentage in that span. If they go with Ingram, he did have a solid three game stretch that included two shutouts over Tampa and LA. However he’s played just two games since Feb 19th and gave up 10 goals. Most recently March 1st allowed 4 to Dallas on 41 shots.
Montreal Matheson +650.
Vegas just had to start Quick today. This may be the first and last time I bet anyone on Montreal. Quick will have a better defense in front of him, and he’s facing a team without much scoring talent, that isn’t playing for anything at all. Who’s in Vegas. For the weekend. Hard to ignore Quick’s brutal stats this season though. Suzuki at +225 probably a better choice with still a solid payout. Suzuki like Hughes on NJ is probably due some regression. But Montreal is heavily reliant on his offensive production as there’s just not much else after him in regards to a consistent scoring threat.
Vegas may get to face Diet Quick in the form of Jake Allen. So two guys I contemplated taking for them were Theodore at +400 and Barbashev. My book may not be aware Barbashev is now a Knight as there’s currently no odds on him.
NJ Hughes -140
Montreal Matheson +650
Not the best picks as far as expectations on a return here. Thought about a possible Kucherov and Stamkos split. Which is what I ended up doing in the Kings game last night. Had difficulty picking between Kempe and Fiala so took both. Both cashed when Fiala hit the empty net. Kucherov is +210 and Stamkos is +170. The hope there would be at least one scores to guarantee a positive return and avoid going 0 and 2. Decided against it today as I don’t think it’s the best thing to get in the habit of doing. Hard for teams to keep them off the stat sheet for long though and too much respect might be given to Carolina based on their prices today.
Great call with Matheson!
Thanks. That one felt good.