Written by Graeme on Saturday, March 11th, 2023
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Quite the night yesterday in the NHL.
Two absolutely MASSIVE home favourites. One scrapes the win in OT, the other loses. Hilarious. That Flames offense man. Amazing to see.
It’s funny as in my usual browsing yesterday of sports betting communities etc, I saw people feeling frustrated at the lack of betting options, and so they were combing stuff like Panthers & Flames in regulation just to get a bet with some value.
Like – you don’t have to bet every night. If you feel that way, you legitimately have some sort of gambling problem. And if you’re planning on watching the game and just feel the need to bet – I get that. But man – do fun ones instead that can last the entire game. Player shots over/under. Grand Salami over. That sort of thing. And have a separate bankroll for it.
I have a separate bankroll just for that sort of thing. If I pop into a bar tonight and the Blues vs Blue Jackets game is on and I don’t have a bet on it – I’ll probably chuck something on it from that bankroll. Good to have a “fun” bankroll as you can bet stupid things like exact score etc.
Now if you don’t mind I have about elevently billion hockey games I need to analzye. Another night with quite a few ridiculous favourites, and unfortunately just the one play.
Bruins vs Red Wings:
Bruins coming in off that Oilers loss. Wings the Hawks win. Boston are a bit iffy on the bounce back honestly. -1.5 is below our threshold. I do think they will cover it but it’s a bit close, and their bounce back performances have me shying away.
Penguins vs Flyers:
Despite the Flyers poor offensive metrics, I cannot trust this Penguins D at all. You sometimes get some amazing games between these two and I could see it just randomly going over due to that. But the Flyers offensive metrics are so piss poor it’s too much of a risk.
Sabres vs Rangers:
Sabres coming off that 10-4 loss to Dallas. Three games lost on the trot now. The Rangers are still struggling hard. The metrics are a bit skewed now due to that Sabres/Stars game. Anyway nothing is really jumping out at me here.
Avalanche vs Coyotes:
Avs lost to the Kings. Coyotes strung some wins together and now they are on the road. Both teams are overperforming offensively by a fair bit. Don’t feel great about the over. Avs handicap is unbettable. No bet here.
Lightning vs Blackhawks:
Don’t like anything here. Tampa conceding more than they are scoring and are just a mess. Blackhawks offense isn’t good but the odds are unbettable anyway.
Maple Leafs vs Oilers:
Was laughing when I saw Matthews and Marner yesterday saying they hope Jack Campbell is in net tonight. Yeah no shit! Two offenses firing it in, Oilers overperforming a bit more. Leafs defensive metrics not too bad. I just don’t like the price on this one. Leafs incl OT/SO is 1.76. It’s always tough to back against this Oilers offense, and I don’t think 1.76 is enough for that.
Canadiens vs Devils:
Again, a bit of a silly price for the Habs. In saying that, not as bad as the Rangers one the other night. This is one where you look at it and it’s like yep Devils should win. I didn’t feel that way with the Rangers metrics. By the numbers, Devils should score at least 3 here. I’m not sure if the Habs can keep up though for the over.
Alas, Devils over 3.5 goals is 1.55. Unbettable. And I can’t take the handicap due to the Habs keeping it close – against some good teams – lately.
Jackets vs Blues:
Jackets come in on a few days rest after that mental Penguins game. Blues got the win over the Sharks. Both teams conceding a lot but their goals scored last 10 both below 3. Both performing as expected.
Eh let’s see – the Blue Jackets don’t look the worst bet here. Slight underdogs. Some of their defensive metrics are a concern, but Blues conceding more, same xGA. Blues low SCGF/60, high SCGA/60.
But bleh Hutchison is projected then you look at Elvis too and it’s like gah. Just so hard to back the Jackets with their goaltending. Strong lean on them though due to the Blues slightly inferior offense.
Hurricanes vs Golden Knights:
Yeah this looks fine for a Hurricanes play.
A better team by the metrics. They’re underperforming offensively actually. Scoring well, goaltending is crushing it for them but even then, the xGA is huge. Knights just don’t seem to have the offensive power to keep up here.
I’m almost tempted to take Canes -1.5 here. But the Knights have been playing well, and did just beat Carolina 3-2 on the 1st.
Hurricanes in Regulation
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -135 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/11 8:43:36 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Panthers vs Jets:
Jesus. No. Just no. By the metrics, Panthers should probably win. Odds seem right on point anyway.
Islanders vs Capitals:
I mean Islanders have racked up a fair amount of wins lately, but it’s not a murderer’s row of opposition. And that Capitals Sharks game is still fresh in my mind. Play would have to be Islanders in regulation and don’t have the confidence in that.
Kraken vs Stars:
A lot of the metrics point to the over in this one. Both teams coming in on the back of a bunch of high scoring games. Both scoring and conceding. The problem is both are overperforming offensively, and underperforming big time with the goals against.
That could all come to a crashing halt here, and every single SCG metric is below 3. That puts me way off the over here. Pity as the other metrics look great for it.
Canucks vs Senators:
Close one. Slight edge to the Sens which the sportsbooks agree with – I’d price them at about 1.76 too. No bet.
Sharks vs Wild:
The Minnesota defensive machine comes to town. Sharks should be scoring more but this probably isn’t the team to do it against. Kaprizov out is a big concern though as their offense has been brutal at actually scoring, and now you take out their top scorer? Ouch.
Actually funny thing about that is watch them start lighting it up now they have to modify the setup a bit. But yeah I can’t back them on just a gut feeling like that.
Kings vs Predators:
Kings hosting the Preds. Kings on a nice run. Preds coming in off that Coyotes loss. I was hoping for nice odds on the Kings, as the bookies often overvalue the Preds. But we’d have to take them in regulation and I am not seeing that.
Strong leans:
Full game OVER 6.0: Rangers and Canucks games
Full game OVER 5.0: Florida game
Full game UNDER 7.0: Carolina game
Koko’s comments about the Flames yesterday were right on the money. I’m well aware of the Flames offensive deficiencies, but I had thought from their manner of recent wins they’d turned a corner and were fully intent on pushing some offensive creativity and muscle for urgently needed wins, and against a team like Anaheim? As Shakespeare once quipped with a laugh, “But it was not to be.” That’s two horrendously weak performances by the Flames in the last week or so, the loud “boo” echo in the Flames arena has replaced the wave.
Other matchups today look very questionable, no bets.
Looking at the afternoon games and trying to find or at least narrow down potential goal scorers here. The players I list are just to put them on peoples radars so they can make the decision which way to go while trying to narrow down some of the research time you would have to spend.
Boston vs Detroit
1st tier
Pastrnak -140
Pastrnak has scored in three straight. At first glance my logic is like eliminate him because scoring in four straight games is tough to do. However with Pasta that’s not the case. He’s already been able to do it 4 times this year. He also faces Detroit and Hellberg is confirmed. Whether Hellberg or Husso both are in sub 90 save percent form, and Pasta does shoot the puck often. Which always makes it easier for me to bet on those guys even if it doesn’t cash. The main thing that’ll put most people off is the -140 price. It’s just really tough to take a goal scorer at those odds.
Marchand +140
Scored in his last game out vs the Oilers. Still below his goals and shooting percentage averages. Once again good matchup.
2nd tier
DeBrusk +220
First glance would be the better payout. He’s gone 6 games without a goal currently. Which on its own is not a long time. However his longest droughts this season have been a 5 game 22 shot window at the start of the season. And a four game 10 shot span in November. So he does not go on long slumps. He did have the injury, and the four straight games with a goal. So the 6 games he’s currently on could be some regression from that. He does have a better payout, so with lower expectations might be the better way to for some to go.
The potential story line narrative pick
Bertuzzi +260
Faces his old team. Has played with his new team only two games and only has one shot. Way off his season and career averages. Those season averages always tend to be small sample sizes and low shot totals. However does Boston make it a priority to get him a goal, even if the empty net kind? He’s shooting the puck at just 6.3 percent, coming off a 16.7 last year. And a 14.5 up to this point in his career. They also face Detroit tomorrow in a Home and Home back to back. Do they wait until he’s at Detroit and the rest of the team is potentially fatigued to make tomorrow the game to give him opportunities. Or is all this just a narrative and doesn’t matter to the players at all? Boston isn’t competing for points at all and could use this for team chemistry purposes and a different way to get up for these two games. Or they could just go about their business the way they’ve been doing all year.
I’m going with the worst of the four admittedly in a two prong bet where I’ll also take a shot on Bertuzzi tomorrow as well. To at least net his first goal with his new team vs his former in one of or both these Detroit games.
Bertuzzi +260
Philly vs Pitt
1st tier
Guentzel +105
Only player on either team I’d personally put on this level. Has scored in his last two games after going six straight without. Similar to Pastrnak, he’s capable of scoring in multiple games so I wouldn’t necessarily write him off for that. And is shooting the puck. Faces Hart who has been confirmed and is 1-5-1 his last 7 with a .866 save percentage. Also unlike Pastrnak he’s still going at slight plus money which can make him an easier option to take.
2nd Tier
Pit Malkin +155
Current goal drought has been 5 games. Longest two on the season for him was 9 games 27 shots from late November to early December. And 5 games 10 shots early February. He still picks up points during these goalless spans indicating he doesn’t completely disappear from the offense. Seems to alternate his priorities, has picked up 5 assists over his last 3 games. An intriguing 5 and 10 game split where he’s scored 4 in his last 10 and zero his last 5. His shot totals have also trended down in those splits however so you’d like that to jump back up more.
Pit Rakell +170
Similar logic to Malkin but less of a pedigree. His 10.9 shooting percent is actually on the higher side of his last 5 years. Also 5 years removed from those back to back 30 goal seasons with the Ducks. He’s 10 games and 27 shots without a goal. Still getting on the stat sheet with assists. Still gets to play on the top line. And despite his lower goal totals, doesn’t go huge gaps without scoring. Longest drought prior to his current one was 8 games and 19 shots.
Potential Zag
Philly Tippett +270.
Large variance. Tough to back with confidence. Assuming Jarry starts for Pittsburgh, he’s still searching to regain that form since his return from the injury. Philly is often just a simple pass for me because it’s such a crap shoot. It could be anyone. Or no one. The expectations on the prices are Philly stuggles to score with team totals of over 2.5 at even money and over 3.5 set at +240. So if you like Philly to make this a game you could take one of those two and avoid having to select a player all together.
My pick would be Malkin, followed by Guentzel slightly a head of Rakell. But all three could be argued for and one isn’t standing out above the others to me.
Will do another post with The Buffalo Ranger afternoon game, highlighting some players. And if anything stands out as far as the night games will just post in a more concise player and odds format.
Hello mates
have anyone some tips of players that will do 1 point or more? i want to find the best combo
Buffalo vs NYR
Buffalo Tage Thompson +110
Only 3 games without a goal. His longest drought on the season has been just 5 games. His 5 and 10 games splits, are in that desirable range. 6 goals over his last 10, and just 1 goal over his last 5. However his shot totals have dropped significantly during those splits as well. Just 9 shots the last 5 after 21 shots in the five games prior. So while he’s clearly turned a corner in his early career where you can sort of eliminate those first 4 seasons from his averages, he’s still at career highs of 42 goals on 17.4 percent shooting. Making it difficult to predict whether the form continues or the natural regression starts to creep in.
In my opinion he’s still better than the next group of Skinner, Cozens, and even further down Mittlestadt and Olofsson. Your not surprised when any of them score. But they make it so murky because it’s difficult to pinpoint one over the other on a given night and how interchangeable they all are.
Buffalo Dahlin +340
The biggest thing that stands out and why I keep highlighting him, is the goalless drought which has now reached 15 goals and 38 shots. It’s now almost triple his season high of about 6 games. A couple of injury stints have broken up his rhythm perhaps and could explain the longer time between goals. I already took a two game chance on him recently that didn’t pan out. So at a certain point it no longer becomes profitable and you have to just let it go and move on. To anyone who hasn’t taken that shot maybe it’s worth the risk at the price. He’s already reached highs in goals and shooting percentage due to his fast start to the season. So the regression could still last longer , with him still remaining within his usual ranges.
NYR Fox +360
Similar write up as Dahlin. I also took a two game shot on Fox recently that also failed to hit. He’s now at 17 games and 30 shots without a goal. Would like him in the 3 shot range, something he hasn’t done in over 6 games. Both get to face poor goaltending, making the higher payouts even more enticing.
Rangers face Pittsburgh in another afternoon game tomorrow.
Kreider +135
The 52 goals last year seem like an outlier. And if you eliminate that season, he’s pretty much on par and within the norms of his other seasons. Only two games without a goal. Not a huge disparity between 5 and 10 game splits. Still capable based on matchup.
Kane +150
Got his first as a Ranger last game vs Montreal. Tough for me to figure out what he is now and what his ceiling and realistic expectations are. However, unlike the rest of the team figuring out how to integrate the new players and define everyone’s roles, I feel like he knows his role and can execute it. He’ll be fed the puck from the likes of Panarin and shouldn’t hesitate to shoot and shoot often. The goal should give him confidence as he’s right where he wanted to be all season when it was clear he’d be moving on.
Chytil +205
Low expectation. However he is the most familiar with his linemates. He was on a five game tear end of January and has went from one extreme to the other regressing into a 13 game 33 shot drought. His drought has coincided with Lafreniere heating up. Once Lafreniere hits his inevitable regression, we could see Chytil net a few instead. The +205 should probably be closer to +250 so you are being taxed if you pick him. I mentioned before how young he is despite already being in his 6th year. He has already reached career highs with 19 goals and his 15 percent shooting is 5 percent higher then his career form.
I’ll be taking Kane +150. It’s gonna sting when Dahlin and Fox come thru, and I’m not on them, but maybe I take a chance on Fox tomorrow vs the Penguins assuming he doesn’t get there today.
NYR Kane to score +150
I’ll take a shot on Nashville’s Josi at +310. Arviddson at +220 for the Kings can be an option as well. Gets to face his old team. Zero goals his last 5, however has registered a whopping 30 shots during that span.
For Seattle I leaned in on Bjorkstrand +295 and Larsson +850. They have to face Oettinger, who hasn’t been sharp his last 7 starts. Low expectations but great value.
All 4 are high risk low expectations for me. I feel way better about Josi or Arviddson. And even those two I would say not great. The Bjorkstrand and Larsson plays have a sense of wishful thinking to them on my part. Where I’d rather play them after spending time highlighting them, then layoff and potentially miss out. Even though that’ll probably be the wiser move when all is said and done.
When it comes to Minnesota and Kaprizov missing about a month, Zuccarello +155 and Spurgeon +380 aren’t bad options. Steel gets first crack filling in for Kaprizov, as the comments made were they didn’t want to disrupt any of the other lines, but they kept open the possibility by saying they could do so further down the line. He’s going at +300 which is good value for someone on the first line. But hard to bet with confidence. He does get San Jose and as alluded to, it’s funny how teams and players can sometimes rally and do the opposite of what’s expected. This should be his best chance as far as minutes played, price and opponent, but it could also bomb. Minnesota can take a risk like this and if lightning strikes, they’ll ride the spark.
Nashville Josi +310
LA Kings Arviddson +220
Seattle Bjorkstrand +295
Seattle Larsson +850