Written by Graeme on Thursday, March 30th, 2023
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Getting to these a bit late today. One of those days where I’m just slammed with work from practiaclly the second I wake up. Always fun.
Of course, it’s the usual busy Thursday slate. We’re just a couple of weeks away from the playoffs and it’s a tricky time to bet.
First you have teams who are struggling with motivation. Coaches experimenting, teams with no pressure trying new things etc.
Then you have teams who are showing that they just aren’t playoff teams. I was saying that to Scott the other day – teams like the Penguins and Jets. They are playing in some crucial matchups, yet are not able to deliver. They just aren’t teams we can count on when it comes to winning those key matchups.
Let’s see what we can dig out of Thursdays slate – just the one play. It’s going to be slim pickings down the stretch.
If you want a treble for tonight – from my over 2.5 goals system – Bruins, Panthers, Knights all over 2.5. Pays 1.84. I’ll write a bit more about that system tomorrow as I’m finished my initial run-through of the analysis on it.
Bruins vs Blue Jackets:
Bruins coming off the Preds loss. Probably out for blood tonight. -2.5 would be the play. I don’t think there is enough for me to advise it, but yeah they should probably give them a battering. Problem is Boston haven’t covered that in their last 5 matchups. The Jackets defensive metrics are atrocious though.
Canadiens vs Panthers:
Speaking of teams who you can’t count on, it’s the Florida Panthers. Nothing for this one. The Habs odds are slightly tempting, but the metrics just don’t back it up enough to make it a play.
Penguins vs Predators:
Easy pass.
Devils vs Rangers:
Rangers have found their glory again. Now they face a very inconsistent Devils side. This is a big game. This is one of those where I immediately like the Rangers after a glance at the metrics, then try and find reasons not to bet them.
Rangers are solid on the road. One of the most in-form teams in the NHL right now and playing with confidence.
Outscouring the Devils while conceding less. Goaltending been a factor based on the xGA although Devils GA/60 is on point with theirs. Both Rangers offense and defense performing well.
Devils – their offense SHOULD be performing better but with how the Rangers D has been performing, I’m going to go with them.
Rangers win incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: 2.15 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/03/30 11:47:14 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Senators vs Flyers:
Tough one. Flyers playing well but Sens are a good little home team. 21-13-3. I actually slightly lean the Flyers here but not with Ottawas home performances can I back it.
Lightning vs Capitals:
Not betting anything involving Washington for the rest of the season. I do think there is value on the Capitals here looking at the data.
Red Wings vs Hurricanes:
Wings got the win over the Penguins. Now host the Canes. Carolina coming in with some mixed results. Not a team I feel confident backing at the moment.
Blackhawks vs Blues:
The Blues SHOULD outscore them I guess – that’s the best I can say. Their offense is drastically overperforming to a ridiculous degree right now. Completely not sustainable. The Hawks shouldn’t be as conceding as much as they are and that puts me off any team goal bets.
Oilers vs Kings:
Easy to pass on my current favourite team, the LA Kings, tonight. Going up against a tough Oilers side following their first loss in a wee while.
Kraken vs Ducks:
Nothing here. Ducks are terrible. But the Kraken should not be such ludicrous favourites.
Sharks vs Knights:
Weird one with the Sharks coming in on a W and the Knights with a loss. Play would have to be Knights in regulation. I can certainly see it but am concerned with the quantity of goals the Knights concede. It’s probably n ot a bad play as the Sharks do concede more and have worse defensive metrics by a long shot.
To WIN moneyline: Seattle
Leans: to WIN moneyline: St. Louis, Vegas
Seattle needs points and is at home after two days rest. One more win and they have basically locked up at least a Wild Card spot as long as they don’t collapse from then on. They won’t catch LA or Edmonton, but Winnipeg isn’t playing well and Calgary can’t catch them. A great spot, and against Anaheim these days, this is sweet and timely opportunity to seize. Moneyline looks highly likely, but the puckline while also easy to see, I’m not going for, this time of year being a concern.
I’m sure Vegas would much rather be matched in Round One of the playoffs against either Seattle, Winnipeg, Nashville or Calgary instead of LA or Edmonton, so they SHOULD, logically, reasonably, ya’d think, I suspect, I heard a rumor, just spit-balling a wild guess here, that they’d be stoked to seize the 2 points tonight as par for the strategy winding down the season.
I can’t see betting on St. Louis for anything this year, but they’re playing Chicago, a rivalry as old as the day both teams were active in the league. The Blues have been scoring a fair amount recently, and Chicago generally can’t. They’ve played close games for decades, so just a lean.
With Philly and Ottawa both looking in finer form recently, I can’t find anything. Not going for the OVER option.
Boston -1.5 at -180
Just too big of a goaltender mismatch with Ullmark vs Hutchinson. Boston at home and I don’t think they allow the embarrassment of risking Ullmark playing a close game vs a goaltender of Hutchinson’s caliber. If it didn’t matter, they could have easily started Swayman for this game. The Boston -2.5 is still minus money at -115 so I prefer not to get too cute with this.
Ottawa -170
Also though about Ottawa regulation -110. Their home record and getting to face Sandstrom are why I like them here. Sandstrom did pick up a win stopping 27 of 29 shots vs Montreal, snapping a 9 game losing streak for him. But Ottawa with 15 goals over their last three games, I don’t think Sandstrom has the same success in this spot here.
I thought about trying to do something with Lyon starting for Florida but I don’t know what really. Montreal team total over 2.5 is -160. Not something i really wanna sweat at that price. The total is set at 7 and over 6.5 is at -160 as well.
I’ve also thought about Carolina regulation -135. They get to face Nedeljkovic of Detroit tonight. And Detroit then goes on the road to Winnipeg for the second leg of a home away back to back. I think I feel more confident in the other two plays though.
Another note of interest. Rangers in a rival game vs Devils tonight and have back to back tomorrow vs Buffalo. Buffalo has already announced they’ll start Devon Levi in his NHL debut. 21 year old 2020 seventh round pick. 17-12-5 record with 2.24 GAA and .933 Save percentage at Northeastern University.
Boston -1.5 at -180
Ottawa -170