Written by Graeme on Friday, April 21st, 2023
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We both crushed it yesterday in the NHL, with Scott going 2-0 and myself 3-0 over 5 different bets for a combined 5-0 day. Gotta love days like that.
Leafs got the dominant win as expected. Great bounce back from them and they took advantage of Tampas injuries.
Scott took the Rangers and I took the over in the Rangers vs Devils game, and the Devils got rocked 5-1 in that one. That one is looking more and more like a sweep.
I passed on Avs vs Kraken but Scott took Colorado in regulation. It wasn’t easy, but they were able to mount a comeback and get the W.
In the Knights vs Jets game, the Knights bounced back strong as Scott expected and that helped my over come in.
Let’s get on with Fridays bets as the teams switch venues:
Islanders vs Canes Game 3 Betting Tips:
Game 2 was another close game that was decided by a single goal, this time in OT.
The Isles have been able to keep these games close despite being outshot in both games.
With the series moving to New York and the Isles having stayed in both games I like their chances to pick up their 1st win here in front of their loyal fans.
Isles win incl OT
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -120 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/21 7:57:45 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: The Hurricanes have won both games so far. Both games have been tight one goal affairs. I felt they were lucky to pick up the win in Game 2.
Looking at the advanced metrics for the games, the Islanders have did quite well. Close in xG, more HDCF/60 by a long shot although granted, when playing from behind that’s likely to happen.
They showed in Game 2 they can go toe to tie with this team. I think that third goal deflated them as they were probably just entertaining the thought of a W there.
This is an absolute must-win game. Otherwise, heads go right down. The question is whether they have it in them or not. Can be a lot of nerves for this type of game, while the Canes are a machine.
When it’s the playoffs, you have to look at different factors than per usual. Honestly, I’m very close to skipping this one. But it’s a crucial game, and when I think about how the Islanders lost that Canes game, with it looking like it should have been a penalty that ultimately led to the goal? They should be fired up.
I dunno – it feels like one of those games where I am trying to talk myself into a bet here. I’m going to go with no bet but with a strong lean on the Islanders.
Panthers vs Bruins Game 3 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Bruins came back to earth in game 2 when the Panthers won 6-3. The Panthers never trailed in the game and scored 4 unanswered to start the 3rd.
With the series moving to Florida for the next 2 games the Bruins can’t allow them to build on the momentum they gained after winning in Boston.
I like the Bruins chances here but would have to be in regulation and after game 2 I’m not sure I like that enough to make it a tip.
No Bet
Graeme: Loving these Panthers right now. I thought they would be able to get the goals in this series, and they showed that in Game 2.
Of course this is the type of game the Bruins will thrive on. An excited, expectant crowd that they would love to shut up.
So it makes it interesting – whether the Bruins will want to display a defensive masterclass to frustate the home crowd, or whether they will loosen up offensively and want to go toe to toe with the Panthers.
I’m going to go with the latter. Over 6 Goals incl OT. The Panthers are going to be pushing hard offensively, and I think the Bruins will make adjustments to try and match that.
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -119 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/21 7:57:45 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wild vs Stars Game 3 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Stars flexed their muscles in game 2 winning 7-3. Hintz scored the hat trick, Dadonov scored twice and Heiskanen had 4 assists.
I’m not sure what the Wild were thinking going with Fleury in game 2 after Gustavsson played great in game 1 where the game went to double overtime and they won.
I wonder what the goalie shuffle did to the teams confidence. Nothing against Fleury its just after his performance in game 1 I felt Gustavsson earned the start.
With the series now in Minnesota I’ll take the Wild to win.
Wild win incl OT
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/21 7:57:45 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: This really looks like the type of series where the teams just trade wins back and forth. I always dig that.
Dallas looked excellent in Game 2. Minnesotas defense went to pot which was an issue for them down the stretch. I think it was late Feb / early March when they were just putting up ridiculous defensive numbers and I was quite excited about that. Love a defensive juggernaut. But then it all went to pot.
I’m going to go with Over 5.5 goals in this one. if Wild are able to get that magical defense going again then great – but so far it doesn’t look like it. Dallas offense coming in confident, Wild need to loosen up and with the home crowd that should encourage that.
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.04 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +104 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.04 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/21 7:57:45 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Kings vs Oilers Game 3 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Oilers tied the series up in game 2. They looked good and controlled the play for most of the game
The Kings have had times where they have been outplayed including having only 3 shots in the 1st period in game 2.
It’s hard to keep up with the offensive of the Oilers and after they lost game win and responded with a win I expect them to have their nerves settled and to come out flying here.
I like the Oilers to win but it would need to be in regulation and after already having a game go to overtime I can’t make it a tip.
No Bet
Graeme: A win last time out as expected by the Oilers. Over the two games, the metrics are definitely in favour of the Oilers although Kings have a better SCGF/60. Oilers have the best offensive metrics across the playoffs right now though in most categories.
A regulation bet does seem risky. I’m not sure how the Kings are going to respond. I’m also not sold on the Oilers yet. Kings showed post all star break what a great team they are.
I can’t help but think back to last years series as well. Kings got the win in Game 1, got blasted in Game 2, then got absolutely destroyed in Game 3 so that is off-putting as it can indicate the Oilers mentality.
The over 6.5 is a bit hefty too. Even team total overs are. No Bet for me on this one.
I was going to search for the Islanders at +1.5, but I think the bookies are protecting themselves here by making the Islanders the favorite. I disagree. The Bruins this year in the playoffs after a loss, with Bergeron the only “questionable” status missing player? I have little time today to review this, so just first ideas here.
Full game UNDER 7.0: Oilers/Kings
To WIN moneyline: Boston